RE: Werewolf XX: Seleno City - Day 4 ends Saturday Feb 15 at 12 PM EST
RaichuGirl said:
I said later, not latest. Generally wolves are 1/4th of the total players, which would be 8; 7 now as WW is dead. 7/22 with a lynch and at least one nightkill a night. If we don't start lynching wolves it means the game could easily be more than halfway over.
Impossible. Usually, wolves are about 1/5th of the population, which would be 6; even if they're usually more, in this game you can't really help it, having ten wolves would make the scum team too strong, unless there are many vanilla wolves or many wolves with the same abilities. As MTC said, 6 is the most probable, with 7 being the very improbable but still possible scenario, meaning that right now, we face 6 wolves at the most. There are 12 active players. If half of them are scum, then we're talking about the end of the game since the day is gonna end in a massive modkill. If the wolves are 5 but they're all active, then the town still has a chance if they kill a wolf today, and then every day after this. If the wolves are 6, and are all active, even a wolf lynch won't help, since we're gonna end up in 6 town/5 wolves, and the NK ends it.
My belief is that right now we're facing three wolves at the most (the rest are inactives). If there were more, they could easily wait till I got a vote or two and then bandwagon me within 10 minutes, taking me out and hugely increasing their chances of winning. If we face three wolves, then, after a town lynch, the modkill and the NK, we have 7 town/3 scum. That is still a pretty bad matchup. If a wolf is lynched, then it's 8/2, which is acceptable. With 2 wolves active it's even easier, as with a town lynch it comes down to 8/2, a rather good final matchup, while in case of a wolf's lynch, it's 9/1, which is a very good analogy.
From the above, you can obviously understand that the only reason for a wolf to get desperate is if there are only two active wolves. Three active wolves can take a loss of their own and still manage to win. Two can't do that. You can try and lynch me, and if you do I hope I am right about the active wolves being three or less, otherwise we pretty much kiss victory goodbye.
There's still the option of trying to lynch Palutena; this will ensure that we're not killing a townie, but it also makes almost certain that we won't be killing a wolf. Plus, if Astra says the truth and he really is bulletproof, then we're wasting the lynch.
I read everything so far. I still can't tell who looks like a wolf. (I'm a noob at this)
