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Discussion in 'Forum Games' started by NinjaPenguin, Jul 9, 2020.
Could you quote the post? I may have covered it already but I may have missed it, sorry.
Eph I'm having a little difficulty following your analyses or your conclusions (what are they?) so it's a bit hard to comment.
@scattered mind Isn't being very helpful right now (yes you have to repeat yourself many many many times if you're in the spotlight), and he isn't offering much points to suggest that Jabber is scum. Currently my vote is on scattered.
Specifically, I'd like a response to the mentioned points in #744, which I ask for a response specifically because I don't feel scattered has satisfactorily responded to them.
Reasons that scattered finds Jabber scum:
- Jabber is no townier than the rest of us
- Jabber voted Vom so that the scattered wagon could exist Day 5
- Jabber was flip-flopping (?) or pressuring both scattered and Vom
- Jabber did the above points with (scum) knowledge that it was MYLO
I don't find any of these things convincing; my refutes:
- Jabber is also no scummier than the rest of us, so this is NAI.
- This point suggests that scum!Jabber was pushing scattered as a ploy, and what he really wanted is to get Vom eliminated. But this doesn't make sense, firstly because scattered wasn't the leading wagon at this point, so Jabber moving his vote really didn't matter. Secondly, Jabber seemingly pushed scattered on Day 4 with intent to eliminate - and if it wasn't for me pushing hard on Vom, Jabber wouldn't have been able to vote for Vom. So basically, scattered is saying that Jabber got lucky that I pushed Vom so that scum!Jabber would have an option in Day 5 (huh?)
- I really don't think this is true. Jabber had healthy questioning and suspicions of Vom, but it wasn't until EoD that Jabber seriously pressured or considered Vom as a wagon.
- Because the above points are moot, this point is pretty moot.
Imma sleep now, I should be back before EoD cause I need to be at work on the EoD deadline. So yeah.
True, my analysis is incomplete and honestly there's not much there yet.
I will now rectify that.
Jabber v Scattered
...is coming because I still need to quote everything lol
Scattered v Jabber
at this point I believe I'm just confbiasing my way to a scattered vote.
I'll have to make sure I'm not confbiased, but to be honest I think it has to be scattered.
Whoever scum is, massive props. I think it's scattered, but still massive props to whoever it is.
Continued case on scattered. Valid points, but at this point I really shouldn't be counting this as a towntell because scattered/jabber have to tunnel each other.
uh. this could be a mindset difference. but scum doesn't care who people think are town. Sure, they'll kill widely townread people, but the fact is that giving out information helps town much more than it helps scum – scum already know who's who, so new info (except who power roles are) doesn't help scum as much as it does town.
I get it. The cel vote is a major way to see scattered as town. But. I don't know anymore.
AAAAAAAAAAAA what is this bolded i don't even know
Part 3 is gonna be so hard to write because I don't even know who it is anymore
the problem is that i mindmeld with this hard.
same comment when talking about info. No info = weak town.
AAAAAAAAAAAA my brain
i thought i'd know once i checked the arguments
now i feel like i might be confbiased
part 3 coming, where i put +/- for both, and thoughts, and vote.
I'm mad at my momentum, since I killed it myself. Ugh.
Here we go.
Once more, one last time.
I'm not playing mafia for a long time after this :U
(they're lying they can't go without it)
brain, don't fail me.
...Part 3's actually in this post lol. And the next few – I don't think I can force myself to make a single long post, so you're stuck with my stream of consciousness.
Let's look at the gamestate. Yesterday, both jabber and scattered tried to vote Vom last minute, tried being the key word: scattered didn't make it in time.
We've established that scum!Jabber switches to get towncred off of the Vom wagon with a primed scattered. This is plausible but also consider: why didn't Jabber push me instead then, if scattered was primed???
Scum!scattered votes vom because Jabber wagon wasn't picking up.
So, let's go over Parts 1 & 2.
Context is that bb was asking scattered why he disappeared for ~an hour at EoD4 — my thoughts were just that I could think of several credible NAI reasons why somebody would disappear from the EoD conversation. I didn't answer that immediately because it was a question directed at scattered, not everyone, and the way he responded to it could be indicative of alignment: if he said something like "I wanted to sit back and see how things unfolded," for example, that would have been pretty anti-town at that stage in the game. But IRL-stuff reasons are fine — he answered in #688 and I commented that I thought it was fine in #702.
A general point I want to make, because you talk about timing at a few other points in your walls, is that timing is not nearly as indicative of alignment as people often make it out to be. Between random IRL stuff and timezones, none of scattered's timing this game has been problematic, and it shouldn't be your reason for voting him.
(notes: sorry this is taking so darn long. analysis is surprisingly mind-numbing)
Oh my god it's finally here.
Okay. From what I can remember, scattered seems to have more progression after the fact rather than in the moment. As in: there's more explanation for what happened rather than what's happening. Granted, this also applies a little to jabber but not as much.
Next, stream of consciousness, I saw mega's reads:
Given that the mega wagon D2 was pure (considering bb locktown), I don't think that the wolves play a bussing strategy.
Does that mean they were powerwolfing? This lends a little credit to scattered being partnered with mega.
Jabber also was pretty well-thought out with arguments versus scattered. I don't know what this means for sure.
scattered's derps with mechanics – he thought scum would be shooting for him then would lose in LYLO today, but it was LYLO, or at least MYLO, yesterday. Huh.
Okay, let's put a list:
+ he voted Vom to break the tie
+ he makes very good points on scattered (idk if this should be a proper townpoint)
+ makes a lot of townie points, such as pushing aside voters for bad reasons and telling them to vote with good reasons
- on occasion it seems like he's treating scattered like town, or at least it looks like trying to sympathize so if need be he can drive another wagon
+ weirdness. weirdness is quite often a sign of town.
+ lost, like me
+ some derps with mechanics (although this should be NAI)
- brings up old cases that went nowhere.
- didn't consider that scum could be me, instead tunneling in on jabber while saying I'm town with townie points and scummy points. Feels a little like he might have TMI'd me town.
I think there are 4 main reasons for my vote:
Scattered voted Vom after Jabber voted Vom. As such, it reads heavily like scum aborting the jabber wagon.
He called me town on little basis.
The caring about how his old progression fit with his mindset each day.
The partnery interactions with Mega.
Scattered, if you're town, I'm sorry. Regardless of alignment, I think you've played an awesome game – and this applies to everyone here as well.
For real this time, and apologies for the really bad and long analysis for not much conclusion,
##GOODNIGHT: scattered mind
...oh god it's finally done i can sleep now. My analysis is probably bad, but I'm done. I'm sorry for the low quality.
I had an amazing time this game
good point about timing, again proving that jabber is dismissing bad reasons to vote scattered, which i don't understand why he'd do here.
Good night, if bb is scum he probably insta-hammers but i doubt it, good luck, and good game!
I'll be back in the postgame.
There’s like less than an hour until day end right? So where is everyone?
bb confirmed town.
i should be asleep but i'm not
...bb what do you think? scattered?
honestly surprised i was never miselimmed this game ngl
gonna turn in for real this time.
@bbninjas you can hammer if people don't show up i guess
I mean, since scattered hasn’t shown up with anything new then my votes probably just going to him.
Eph already signed off, no idea about Jade, and I think scattered and I have already said everything we need to say.
My reads are pretty solidified. I looked into Ephemera earlier in the game and essentially reached the conclusion that despite some chaotic anti-town play toward the beginning of the game, it's by-and-large attributable to trying out a new playstyle, and they later called Mega out in a way I can't see them doing as scum. bb's push for Vom in the context of D4 makes him likely town as well, and that's on top of the Mega wagon. Jade is confotown. So in addition to all scattered's scumtells, my other reads are solidly enough town to pretty much lock my vote in.
Like, if you've got questions about specific points of my case on scattered, obviously I'm happy to discuss it further, but I don't really have much new to contribute to the conversation outside of that. I think we're just waiting on you and Jade to read up and cast your votes.
Ayy.. too busy to post and too late I guess.. you guys nailed it. Good job!