Finished Mafia LXI: Forest Fire: Game Over!

Discussion in 'Forum Games' started by NinjaPenguin, Jul 9, 2020.

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  1. Ephemera Faerie of the Viridian Forest


    The only other way there could possibly be a scum!bb is if a) Vom wasn't primed, but b) scum!bb was paranoid that Jade saved someone.

    I think both of these, especially both in conjunction, are highly unlikely. If Vom wasn't primed bb just ignites. It would be easy to convince people to vote, say, jabber or scattered, in the case of a lucky save by Jade.

    scum is within scattered/jabber.
    I've figured that for a long while, but this absolutely confirms it.


    Time to do my favorite thing: check progression.
    Mini ISO walls on Jabber and Scattered should come either in an hour or in 12.
    Apologies for being out today; I was busy. Should have enough time and motivation to solve jabber/scattered now though.

  2. Ephemera Faerie of the Viridian Forest


    Okay, one more potential scum!bb case: amici was primed.
    Unlikely. On D2 general consensus was that amici was likely to flip scum anyway, so bb doesn't prime amici N2.
    This would leave amici being primed N1.
    But priming amici over Vom, or Jade? I doubt this happens, since the only one hard townreading amici was me. Scum!bb knows he can likely score a miselim on amici later, why waste a prime on a potential miselim?

    conclusion: bb is even more town.
  3. Ephemera Faerie of the Viridian Forest


  4. NinjaPenguin Always standing out from the crowd.


    Day 5: Vote Count 2
    Jabberwock (1)-scattered mind
    scattered mind (1)-Jabberwock
    Not Voting: bbninjas, Ephemera, Jadethepokemontrainer

    If the day ended right now, the elimination would be randomly chosen between Jabberwock and scattered mind. There are 48 hours remaining in the day.

    Vote History:
    #20-Celever voted bbninjas
    #23-Amici voted Celever
    #27-Ephemera voted Celever
    #30-Vom voted Fiery_Lugia
    #32-Ephemera voted Vom
    #41-Ephemera voted Ephemera
    #42-Ephemera voted Vom
    #47-Vom voted Ephemera
    #51-Jadethepokemontrainer voted MegaPod_781
    #55-Celever voted Ephemera
    #81-MegaPod_781 voted bbninjas
    #102-bbninjas voted Ephemera
    #120-Ephemera voted bbninjas
    #123-Ephemera voted MegaPod_781
    #139-MegaPod_781 voted Ephemera
    #151-Scattered mind voted Amici
    #162-Ephemera voted Celever
    #244-MegaPod_781 voted Celever
    #249-Jadethepokemontrainer voted Celever
    #268-scattered mind voted Fiery_Lugia
    #276-Ephemera voted bbninjas
    #288-scattered mind voted Celever
    #297-Celever voted bbninjas
    #302-Fiery_Lugia voted Celever
    #304-Celever voted Amici
    #308-MegaPod_781 voted bbninjas
    #320-scattered mind voted bbninjas
    #348-bbninjas voted MegaPod_781
    #353-Amici voted Ephemera
    #357-Vom voted scattered mind
    #358-Ephemera voted bbninjas
    #390-Jadethepokemontrainer voted MegaPod_781
    #392-Ephemera voted Amici
    #395-Vom voted MegaPod_781
    #404-Vom voted scattered mind
    #405-Ephemera voted Amici
    #418-Jadethepokemontrainer voted Amici
    #420-bbninjas voted Amici
    #453-Jabberwock voted scattered mind
    #454-Ephemera voted Jabberwock
    #513-Ephemera voted bbninjas
    #517-bbninjas voted Vom
    #538-Ephemera unvoted bbninjas
    #566-scattered mind voted Jabberwock
    #567-bbninjas unvoted Vom
    #574-bbninjas voted Vom
    #587-Ephemera voted Jabberwock
    #607-Ephemera voted scattered mind
    #613-Ephemera unvoted scattered mind
    #624-Vom voted scattered mind
    #651-Jabberwock voted Vom
    #686-scattered mind voted Jabberwock
    #702-Jabberwock voted scattered mind

    The following players have not posted in the past 24 hours and are being tagged (this isn't a warning or anything, just a reminder):
  5. Jabberwock #Jovimohnaeliackvid

    Forum Mod Member

    You brought it up despite knowing that there was no substance to it. If there was substance, you wouldn't have ignored it for all of D2. If you had actually wanted to add it to the case on D3, you would have made it explicit by quoting it. Saying "I was the first one to vote Amici, look here if you don't believe me" is just a grab for towncred.

    When you said that, did you mean to use it as an actual point against Amici, or not?

    You fell off the Amici wagon long before you hopped on the Celever wagon. You stopped asking her questions and even unvoted her to vote Lily instead.

    I can understand IRL stuff; ik it was your birthday near the beginning of D2 (I wasn't in the game at the time, so /late but happy birthday) — but you made like four posts there in which you asked Vom, Lily, and Celever one question each and then parked your vote on bb. Do you actually expect me to believe that you decided to pursue Lily and Jade and come back to Amici later, when you asked Lily one question, Jade zero questions, and then voted a different player entirely?

    You said you were keeping stuff back because you "didn't want any microread to affect your judgment." But as town, you would have had nothing else to go on. I don't know how you were coming up with these potential scumteams, but it sound like it was based wholly off player interactions and not at all off scumtells or (micro)reads. Only scum devises baseless scenarios like that (especially so early in D1), because they need to construct an alternate scumteam scenario to push.

    I don't know how many ways I can say it. It's the order you were thinking in — devising hypothetical scumteams and then seeing how they fit in with reality. Town would look at scumtells, or ask questions if they can't find any, and then eventually they've got enough to be confident that somebody's scum. That's not to say that town never deals in abstract hypotheticals — MYLO/LYLO is often a good time to consider them — but at the beginning of D1? Scum have sooooo much more reason than town to be thinking that way.

    I've been repeating myself for like two pages now about this very subject. If a townie is not satisfied with an answer, they ask their question again. Dropping the line of questioning so they can just bring it up again later if FoS ever lands on that player is a scummy mindset.

    Nah, not sharing a full rainbow is different from not sharing any reads at all. You kept everything back until the "Amici silent/Vom town/Eph chaotic/Lily scum" post. This is a moot point here because it's not inherently alignment-indicative, but this post doesn't clarify your earlygame play.

    bb had a case on Vom, and a refutal of the case on you. I didn't have the time to do more than skim either of those posts, so no, I didn't fully understand them. But I had a strong townread of bb and I know from prior experience that when he's town, he's worth listening to. If he felt that strongly that my case on you was garbage and that his case on Vom was better, then I wasn't prepared to dismiss his posts out of hand and just "trust my instincts." But I didn't have time to read those posts, so I wasn't able to decide for myself which of us was wrong.

    I switched because if one of us had to be wrong, better we miselim Vom than you, because Vom was much more likely to have been primed. There simply wasn't enough time to reach a higher level of confidence.

    Of course, since then, I've had time to go back and read bb's refutal of my case on you, and I found that it wasn't particularly strong after all. Hence my vote on you, and hence the last few pages that have brought us to here.
  6. Jabberwock #Jovimohnaeliackvid

    Forum Mod Member

    Proof is a dangerous word in LYLO. I think it's a compelling argument in favor of bb being town, sure — I agree that Vom was definitely primed, and there aren't very many reasons at all for bb-as-scum to push a primed elimination over an unprimed one. But however much you townread him, don't call him locktown in LYLO. The only locktown player right now is Jade.

    That being said, if it frees you up to do ISOs and look at other cases (which I think right now is ... just scattered), that's good. I assume @bbninjas will get to it on his backlog, but tagging @Jadethepokemontrainer to get in here too and give us their thoughts on the scattered case.
  7. scattered mind Competitive VG Forums Mod
    scattered mind

    Forum Mod Member

    How do you it’s LYLO?
    I can never remember the difference between it and MYLO
  8. scattered mind Competitive VG Forums Mod
    scattered mind

    Forum Mod Member

    Also I think it’s time to sit back @Jabberwock and let the other players read our talk and post their thoughts. I think it would be hard for them to catch up if we keep debating each other and it seems to me like we got most of what we wanted to say. Time for other players to give their input so far.
  9. scattered mind Competitive VG Forums Mod
    scattered mind

    Forum Mod Member

    Also also, thank you for the birthday wish :)
  10. Jadethepokemontrainer We're on the edge of greatness~

    Forum Mod Chat Room Staff Member

    bbn - mega. He also switched onto Vom yesterday believing she was town, which honestly imo comes more from a town mindset. If he was scum he could have just gone with you or Scattered and had them miselimed. Also there was that one post where he pointed out the reason I townread him wasn't a very strong reason. If he was scum he could easily just let it go that I townread him.

    I skimmed over the beginning of it and am about to go read in full. It makes sense to me so far and lines up with some of the points I noticed.

    Sorry I haven't gotten to read it yet.. I am going to now though after I finish reading what Ephe has to say on bbn.
  11. Jadethepokemontrainer We're on the edge of greatness~

    Forum Mod Chat Room Staff Member

    Alright so after reading Ephe's case on town bb, it's pretty aligned with what I was thinking so I'm feeling good there. This type of analysis that Ephe does also makes me feel pretty good betting he's town as well.
    Going now to read into the Scattered case.
  12. Jadethepokemontrainer We're on the edge of greatness~

    Forum Mod Chat Room Staff Member

    Writing thoughts as I read -

    One thing I do wonder in regards to the Scattered case is why he would bring attention to himself saying that he was the first person to bring suspicion to Amici, if he is scum. Like, if he is scum he knows she was going to flip town, so why would he point to the fact that he was the one to introduce the Amici case?

    At first when Scattered was saying he wasn't gonna post reads yet, I didn't think much of it because I thought he might have a reason for it. But he really didn't have a reason for it? Also this doesn't really seem like something town!Scattered would do, as you sorta said. The last game we played Scattered and I were the two cops, so he was town and I feel like there is something about his game here that is rubbing me the wrong way compared to that one. I might actually go back and skim through that game again, though I'm not sure I could do that until tomorrow.

    Actually Scattered did respond to this in post #182.

    Side note but bruh I missed this before yessssss.

    Ooh yes, I was trying to figure out how to word something like this lol but I've sorta felt this same thing.

    See, with this I feel good about Jabber's solvyness, and I don't really know if going off of Lily's plays is anything.
    Also speaking of Lily I thought this was her first game but it turns out she's played once before? And it appears that time she was scum. Her only posts were to vote, and then ask why she needed a reason for her votes, and that seems to be it. In this game, she actually seemed to be at least saying more? Now I'm feeling like I should read into Lily more when I just said "I don't really know if going off of Lily's plays is anything."

    Urgh. I'm going to finish reading through Scattered stuff first and then try to readdress this Ig.

    Aaaaaand I probably won't be able to continue this tonight, so I'll give to y'all for now. I'm still backreading from Jabber's Scattered case and am on post #618. Will pickup where I left off ASAP.
  13. Ephemera Faerie of the Viridian Forest


    this post initially makes me want to townread you.

    It could be faked by scum, yes. But I don't think it would be said in this way if so.

    ...that's kinda weak, ngl. Again, will base my read on you and scattered on my ISOs on your progression from EoD yesterday to now.

    I can get it out today.
  14. Vom Shocking Puns

    Forum Mod Member

    I don't think it makes sense for scum!bb to push for my elimination knowing I was primed in a vacuum, but without the context I still would think it's possible. However, not only did bb make his case on me pretty late, he backed off after we showed him it didn't have as much merit as we thought, and perhaps scum!bb would have just left it there realizing my elimination would not be beneficial. However, not only did bb actually come back to that case after bringing up new points, he also did that pretty close to EoD. I don't think it'd make sense for scum!bb at all to back off from my wagon then hard push for it that close to EoD.

    Jabber is indeed feeling "very solvy", and I'm starting to think scattered's having trouble defending his position because Jabber is right and he can't actually refute those points. If I could vote right now, it would definitely be scattered.

    Other than that, I'll be going on a roadtrip with my family very early tomorrow (or technically today! lol) morning to see whales in the ocean, so I've been busy with travel preparations and I don't think I'll be able to pop in too often or make as detailed posts - you can probably expect something like this, short and sweet.
  15. Ephemera Faerie of the Viridian Forest


    oooooh whales


    i'm procrastinating. i should not be doing so.
  16. Vom Shocking Puns

    Forum Mod Member

    you can watch she-ra after you finish your post(s).
  17. Ephemera Faerie of the Viridian Forest


    I am back and will get to reading + posting.

    God it is so easy to procrastinate dang it

    @Jabberwock can you quote your D4 scattered ISO? I might have missed it.

    reading back and there are some things i'm not fond of in Jabber's ISO. will pull them up once i'm done skimming again.
    there are also a few weird things in scattered's ISO also though.

  18. Ephemera Faerie of the Viridian Forest


    idk about this progression
    it makes sense but??? the reasoning behind switching to vom is weird???? but why would scum!jabber go for vom over scattered?

    I don't really know. this is what i was referring to when i said something was off in jabber's ISO upon first skim. the reasoning feels okay, but inorganic, if that makes sense. The fact that it's 3 minutes before EoD makes this more valid though. Also given that this was written after the night I think it could potentially feel inorganic from a villager. Ugh.

    Skimming the rest of the thread still but will do some mental gymnastics to warm up first :p

    okay, lemme construct a world.

    Let's say Jabber is scum.

    We have pretty balanced wagons, so Jabber can move his vote around and swing the vote however he wants..

    So why would he go for Vom over scattered? Given the night result, I think assuming Vom is primed is pretty safe – if we had another day, Jabber would know that pressure would be on him.

    I can really only see one reason to vote Vom over scattered as scum!Jabber – if scattered is also primed. That would make a lose/lose situation for scum!Jabber, and thus he'd go for the Vom wagon which would seem to come from a towny mindset upon D5 hitting.

    would scattered have been primed N1? it's possible – I was incredibly vocal about my scattered townread, and I believe quite a few people at least mildly townread scattered? I still think Vom would have been the target here, maybe Jade. Still possible.

    would scattered have been primed N2? more possible than N1: lily would have been alone, and targeting scattered wouldn't have been too bad of a choice I guess. I don't remember Lily's reads much edit: checked it. Lily townread me/jade/scattered and scumread bb. Thus a scattered N2 prime doesn't sound implausible.

    N3 prime on scattered is not happening.

    Anyhow, it's possible that jabber is scum and scattered is primed. As such, i cannot rule out scum!Jabber.

    Let's now construct a scattered scum world.

    preface: scattered is now the relative blind spot for me. I don't remember much of his EoD yesterday, so if someone finds something wrong here please let me know.

    Again, even wagons. This time though scattered can only vote Jabber or Vom – he is the jabber wagon, in fact. As such, scum!scattered would keep his vote on Jabber and hope to convince bb or Vom to vote there as well. When he found that it wasn't working, he tries to switch to Vom last-minute.

    Plausible. Now i know what to look for in my skim.

    Unfortunately both scum!jabber and scum!scattered worlds are plausible. However, I'm gonna make one more wall to explain which is the more likely one., if only I knew which one was more likely...
    (that's what the EoD skim is for ._. )

    TL;DR this is mostly a mental exercise. I was hoping I'd find that it makes no sense for one of them to switch or attempt to switch, but I can see possibilities for both. Currently leaning scattered a bit more but will consider both until I find what I'm looking for in my reread.
  19. Ephemera Faerie of the Viridian Forest


    I apologize for how long my reread is taking me ._.
    brain is not being cooperative.

    I have some thoughts though that I will post in the morning.

    In the meantime i'd love to hear thoughts from more people (@bbninjas what do you think of the situation right now) etc etc.

    I'll be back with a wall. Be ready for it!
  20. Jabberwock #Jovimohnaeliackvid

    Forum Mod Member

    Post #550 is where it starts, but the follow-up is important; a lot of the points in #550 have since been refuted or satisfactorily explained. Post #702 is the most recent summary of the points on scattered:
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