Finished Mafia LXI: Forest Fire: Game Over!

Discussion in 'Forum Games' started by NinjaPenguin, Jul 9, 2020.

  1. NinjaPenguin Always standing out from the crowd.
    NinjaPenguin

    Member

    Day 5: Vote Count 3
    Jabberwock (1)-scattered mind
    scattered mind (1)-Jabberwock
    Not Voting: bbninjas, Ephemera, Jadethepokemontrainer

    If the day ended right now, the elimination would be randomly chosen between Jabberwock and scattered mind. There are 24 hours remaining in the day.

    Vote History:
    #20-Celever voted bbninjas
    #23-Amici voted Celever
    #27-Ephemera voted Celever
    #30-Vom voted Fiery_Lugia
    #32-Ephemera voted Vom
    #41-Ephemera voted Ephemera
    #42-Ephemera voted Vom
    #47-Vom voted Ephemera
    #51-Jadethepokemontrainer voted MegaPod_781
    #55-Celever voted Ephemera
    #81-MegaPod_781 voted bbninjas
    #102-bbninjas voted Ephemera
    #120-Ephemera voted bbninjas
    #123-Ephemera voted MegaPod_781
    #139-MegaPod_781 voted Ephemera
    #151-Scattered mind voted Amici
    #162-Ephemera voted Celever
    #244-MegaPod_781 voted Celever
    #249-Jadethepokemontrainer voted Celever
    #268-scattered mind voted Fiery_Lugia
    #276-Ephemera voted bbninjas
    #288-scattered mind voted Celever
    #297-Celever voted bbninjas
    #302-Fiery_Lugia voted Celever
    #304-Celever voted Amici
    #308-MegaPod_781 voted bbninjas
    #320-scattered mind voted bbninjas
    #348-bbninjas voted MegaPod_781
    #353-Amici voted Ephemera
    #357-Vom voted scattered mind
    #358-Ephemera voted bbninjas
    #390-Jadethepokemontrainer voted MegaPod_781
    #392-Ephemera voted Amici
    #395-Vom voted MegaPod_781
    #404-Vom voted scattered mind
    #405-Ephemera voted Amici
    #418-Jadethepokemontrainer voted Amici
    #420-bbninjas voted Amici
    #453-Jabberwock voted scattered mind
    #454-Ephemera voted Jabberwock
    #513-Ephemera voted bbninjas
    #517-bbninjas voted Vom
    #538-Ephemera unvoted bbninjas
    #566-scattered mind voted Jabberwock
    #567-bbninjas unvoted Vom
    #574-bbninjas voted Vom
    #587-Ephemera voted Jabberwock
    #607-Ephemera voted scattered mind
    #613-Ephemera unvoted scattered mind
    #624-Vom voted scattered mind
    #651-Jabberwock voted Vom
    #686-scattered mind voted Jabberwock
    #702-Jabberwock voted scattered mind

    The following players have not posted in the past 24 hours and are being tagged (this isn't a warning or anything, just a reminder):
    @bbninjas
    @Celever
     


  2. Jabberwock #Jovimohnaeliackvid
    Jabberwock

    Forum Mod Member

    Tbh idr either; I meant whichever one is the one where we have to eliminate scum. We cheesed our way into an extra Day while initially thinking D4 was MYLO, but the only way that works again is if Jade managed to prevent a priming. That's not a good assumption to take risks on; ergo, we have to eliminate scum.

    That's fair; we've both started to repeat ourselves anyway, and while you haven't adequately responded to the points on you, I reckon Vom's right, that that's because there's just no townie explanation. Either way, no point going in circles.

    This brings me to another important point, though. @bbninjas @Ephemera @Jadethepokemontrainer there are 24 hours left in the day. Y'all have got to read up. I've summarized the points on scattered as concisely as possible; they're in post #702, and quoted in the post before this one. If y'all go back to there and read the last couple pages, that should give you a pretty good idea of where the case on scattered is at, and if it doesn't, just ask. A full re-read is nice and all, but we don't have time for all of you to keep procrastinating it further, or we won't have time to discuss, and we'll end up exactly where we were at the end of D4. We don't win this game without discussion.
     
  3. bbninjas Ready or Not!
    bbninjas

    Advanced Member Member

    How is it already 24 hours left... <.>

    Anyway, reading up now.
     
  4. bbninjas Ready or Not!
    bbninjas

    Advanced Member Member

    For people wondering why I unvoted Vom and then revoted shortly afterwards; it's because I meant to have unvoted 24 hours before then (because Vom's "waiting for a bus" explanation made sense, so it was thoroughly NAI). I decided to just go and ISO Vom x Mega quickly to check how they interacted with each other, and then realised very soon after that they hardly ever interacted with each other at all! So I dug deeper and built a case.

    Basically this is where I am right now. Jabber > scattered imo since scattered has town-buddying interactions with Mega (imo), and Jabber (obviously) has no interactions. I think Jabber's solving is NAI atm, and there is that Fiery coaching quote that makes Jabber look suss.

    Questioned is definitely the wrong word; I was meaning more "discussed". There was two quotes that he commented on in the early day from either Celever or Vom (?) that discussed the Amici read to some extent, iirc. Hence scattered was interested in those cases, but when the bbn cases became forefront and when I started pressuring scattered more about the bbn case, scattered became more focused on the bbn case. Hence why I say this progression makes sense and thus is NAI.

    1. I think this is semantics - I'm reading "independent" as "unbiased" or "collated" which is a townie mindset.
    2. Scattered has explained why he changed his vote: originally he thought it was an elim-a-lurker, and then he realised it was an elim-someone-who-is-scummy-because-they-are-acting-against-the-town-and-being-cagey. I also disagree that only scum would say the "either or" statement. In fact, this was the sentiment of nearly everyone at the time - and I think some other people made this reason explicit (Amici maybe?).
    3. This a good point and it's the most persuasive of the three. @scattered mind's explanation at #706 doesn't explain why he scattered didn't ask additional questions / make additional points in that #438 vote post.

    I would appreciate @scattered mind's response to this.
    I also think scattered hasn't given a satisfactory explanation as to why he didn't elaborate on the Day 1 read that he quoted in his Day 3 post (#438) when he voted Amici.

    This is an extremely good point. Jabber suggests scattered pointed this out to get towncred, but how exactly is scattered supposed to get towncred by pushing the wagon of a player who will flip town?

    This whole post from Eph was very good, and I (unfortunately) agree with this conclusion with respect to the switches to Vom.
     
  5. bbninjas Ready or Not!
    bbninjas

    Advanced Member Member

    People say that Jabber is town because they're doing a good job at solving. As it turns out, everyone here is solving, and since we don't know who's correct with their solving, I think it's fairly obvious that this is NAI. So I'm not going to clear Jabber based on solving. Part of why this is NAI is because nearly everyone has had reasons to suggest that their scum, so it would be easy for scum to try scumhunting a town.

    I also don't think Jabber has any particularly scummy points on him which makes this even more difficult. I think @scattered mind should try to provide (or repost?) some points for Jabber's scumminess, because at this point it seems to be purely process of elimination from scattered's perspective.

    I think the Fiery point is the best reason to find Jabber scum. It doesn't make sense for Fiery to say "panic-vote" from a new town perspective.

    @ Someone could you check the thread to see if anyone mentioned "panic-voting" before Fiery?
     
  6. Jabberwock #Jovimohnaeliackvid
    Jabberwock

    Forum Mod Member

    You mean scattered's post #319? Read it again. At the end of D1 scattered said "Yes please" to Celever suggesting an Amici elim, and then at the beginning of D2 he asked Celever why he (Cel) voted Amici. I don't see how it makes sense at all in scattered's Amici progression.

    That's fair — I keep struggling to explain what I mean and I think ultimately I may just have taken connotations out of scattered's words that weren't really there. @Jadethepokemontrainer @Ephemera @Vom I'd be curious to hear how you read the original post and if what I got from it makes any sense, and if not, then that's legit and I'll drop it.

    Again, can you quote where scattered says this? I can't remember him saying anything about his progression on the Celever case except that he realizes it was a mistake in light of how he previously condemned elim-a-lurker wagons.

    You've actually got a legitimate point about Amici there, though. I went back to check (~#254) and she does in fact essentially advocate elim-a-lurker with regard to Celever. She also said in the earlygame that elim-a-lurker was out of the question; that was even the post that made scattered say it too. So that's a good point in that it shows that town can also change their beliefs in this way.

    All wagons scum push, except buses, flip town. However, since town don't know the difference before a flip, scum get towncred when they appear to contribute original material to a case on a player commonly expected to flip scum. Once they flip town, if it ever comes up again, scum can be like "hey, we all thought they were scum," and then point to their original material and say "see how I was solving and helping your case?" If you look at it too far, it breaks down into WIFOM, but on a surface level most people would just accept it — after all, they were agreeing with them — and move on.

    And granted, adding original material to a case is obviously something town do too, just by nature of the process of scumhunting. The difference is that town has no reason to contribute something as superfluous as "hey remember my D1 vote?" to do it.

    I can check, but I've noted before and I'll note again that there are plenty of reasons why Lily would say panic-voting there. From what other people have said, she's played at least one other game on this site, and it's also extremely common for new players to browse old mafia threads to get a better understanding of the game. I also don't think "panic-X" is solely a mafia term; idk if this was the case in Australia, but in the US people were talking a lot about "panic-buying" resources a few months ago, in the early stages of the pandemic. I'm sure there are other examples, too. Point being, the term could have come up in any number of places.
     
  7. Ephemera Faerie of the Viridian Forest
    Ephemera

    Member

    hm
    What are the reasons for scattered town? Right now I'm leaning towards scattered scum myself, won't vote on the 1% chance that bb is scum and will hammer, plus my wall isn't ready yet (could also find jabber scummier upon making the wall idk).

    @Jadethepokemontrainer if it comes to it, I think your vote may be the tiebreaker. Check up on the thread please, and make sure you know where to stand.

    Wall is now coming. I have time, motivation, and, most importantly, intense music to listen to while i make it :U

    if bb is scum, he's played one of the best scumgames I've seen. Doubt it though.

    Here we go.
     
  8. Ephemera Faerie of the Viridian Forest
    Ephemera

    Member

    argh I keep tinfoiling on scum!bb, even when I'm the one who did all the analysis to prove him town.

    But why would scum!bb defend scattered in this way dfjkaldsfakasd he literally has no buddies. Is scattered primed then???

    in a scum!bb world, jade is 100% primed by now. Vom was also primed. This leaves me/jabber/scattered to have 2 primes among us (unless amici was primed which is unlikely).

    ...scum just needs to survive today, they don't care who gets eliminated as long as it's not them. Thus scum!bb defending scattered in this vague way is not a scumtell since a) they're obviously not buddies and b) bb as scum shouldn't care who gets eliminated. Thus he'd probably make more pushes rather than defenses.

    Much ado about tinfoil. Ugh.

    Back to my skim, will put thoughts in 20 minutes.
     
  9. Ephemera Faerie of the Viridian Forest
    Ephemera

    Member

    "The issue is that many of the things you've done aren't just oops-coincidentally-anti-town, they also betray a scummy mindset.
    You kept your reads back for the sole reason of trying to construct an independent narrative and then later fitting it to the reality of the thread. Only scum have any need to construct an independent narrative.
    The Celever vote went against beliefs you earlier professed to hold about eliminating lurkers on D1 (in post #180). After that, only scum would say "Either he is scum or he doesn't care about this game. Either works" to justify Celever's elimination.
    Dropping the Amici case in mid-D1 despite her not answering your questions is further indication of malleable beliefs and a willingness to switch to whatever elimination is the most feasible, but the real kicker here is how you've talked about it since then. Pointing out your initial Amici read in #438 is not something town would do because you hadn't pursued it since then and the initial read had no relevance in D3 anyway, but is something scum would do to try and gain some superfluous towncred."

    c/p'd the case summary because it's relevant.

    I find this argument very convincing, ngl. Scattered cared quite a bit about his progression and flow of ideas over the past few days – but honestly that doesn't matter so much, since it's often the towns who jump around and are illogical. Scum trying to look townie can have wrong pushes, but quite often like to keep things consistent.

    The other thing is that scum!Jabber only votes Vom if scattered is primed. Would he be primed?

    Likely N1 target: I'm gonna guess bb/vom/jade, maybe me?. There are enough people in that pool to firefighter dodge without priming scattered. Scattered is a possible prime but I don't think Mega/Lily shoot there first.

    Likely N2 target: even more likely Vom/Jade/bb, the wagon on mega. Scattered could have been primed by an isolated Lily, but I think she'd go for someone who just eliminated her buddy, or someone she townreads, like me/jade.

    Likely N3 target: not scattered. We all knew scattered/Jabber were the most likely targets the next day, and scum!Jabber doesn't prime his only way out.

    Thus scum!Jabber voting Vom at... iirc 3 minutes? to deadline doesn't make much sense as scum. Sure, scum!Jabber votes Vom that day, but I believe he'd make his progression look better on the plan to eliminate someone who is almost definitely primed if not scum – Jabber's quick switch to Vom at EoD gives barely any towncred for a scum member – which funnily enough makes me townread him.

    Heavily leaning scattered here.
     
  10. scattered mind Competitive VG Forums Mod
    scattered mind

    Forum Mod Member

    I reread and I can’t find anything I didn’t answer already in one way or another.

    jabber is the only option by PoE but it also makes sense- as there is nothing townie you can say about him that you can’t say about all the players now. His vote on vom instead of me was meant to make sure I will be the elimination option of today. Jabber probably kept seeking throughout last day who is the scummier looking- vom or me and switched you vom because he realized it is me. Again because he knew it wasn’t MYLO, while others thought it could be. Today he posted about how today is mylo- proving he had it in his mind.

    I am tired of repeating things although I know it’s important to make sure everyone understand them. Still, I am going to let you guys just decide because I am also not that good with making long detailed posts like jabber/bb and much less in debate like withjabber- so although I tried to explain myself I still keep seeing his ways of twisting what I say and explaining my actions again in a scummy way. I can’t respond further without saying basically the same so please- just vote.
     
  11. Ephemera Faerie of the Viridian Forest
    Ephemera

    Member

    FINAL ANALYSIS POSTS
    Part 1
    Notable Occurrences, EoD4

    -scattered was barely there at EoD. bb hard defended scattered.
    -jabber made quite a few solving posts. NAI but let's go through them.

    Jabber's thoughts on scattered and his amici case. These points are very valid – Scattered cared a lot about how he'd voted amici. Will discuss this in Part 3.

    More points against Scattered, this one about the Cel wagon.

    I like this post from jabber. We've established that scum!Jabber would have just voted scattered yesterday had scattered not been primed, so his casing of scattered looks very good.

    Self-defense, or rather defense of Lily. The point about scumchat coaching – I feel it could be almost referencing scumchat though??? Probably nothing but will note this for part 3.

    Jabber townreading Vom. This was before EoD, and he doubts the case on Vom.

    At EoD, though...

    Jabber is desperate, there's no time. He puts faith in bb's case, votes Vom because she's either scum or primed. I think this comes from town more, unless scattered is primed.

    If this is from scum!scattered, it's an attempt to look towny when the Jabber wagon doesn't take off.
    If this is town!scattered, it's joining what seems to be, from his perspective, the only possible option left.
    Will check this in Part 3 I guess.

    Part 2 will be D5, and Part 3 will be final analysis and thoughts, along with my vote.

    Here we go.
     
  12. Ephemera Faerie of the Viridian Forest
    Ephemera

    Member

    to clarify: had scattered not been primed in a scum!Jabber world, the game would be over by now, with scattered being the D4 miselim. As such, if jabber is scum, scattered is primed, and thus casing scattered as scum wouldn't make sense. Thus I like the post.
     
  13. Ephemera Faerie of the Viridian Forest
    Ephemera

    Member

    FINAL ANALYSIS POSTSPart 2Jabber v Scattered, D5

    This bit is going to be in chunks, since I don't want to keep multiquoting and forgetting context. Thus the next few posts will be the "wall" that is part 2.
     
  14. Ephemera Faerie of the Viridian Forest
    Ephemera

    Member

    oh my god it didn't format correctly

    my OCD is triggered.

    i'll try that one more time.

    nooooo my grand, theatric, final case is ruined by bad formatting...
     
  15. Ephemera Faerie of the Viridian Forest
    Ephemera

    Member

    FINAL ANALYSIS POSTS
    Part 2
    Jabber v Scattered, D5

    This part will be split post by post, each headed as 2.1, 2.2, etc etc. Thus Part 2 will still be a wall, but built in separate chunks.
     
  16. Ephemera Faerie of the Viridian Forest
    Ephemera

    Member

    2.1

    Jabber's Start of Day

    I simultaneously like this post and dislike it. On the one hand, it explains Jabber's EoD thought process pretty perfectly. On the other hand, it feels a little constructed, as well as somewhat contradictory – Jabber had cased scattered quite a bit. I do understand the mindset of switching to Vom, but why would Jabber not be able to follow through on the case he'd made for a significant portion of the day?

    1. I get this thought. It's not alignment indicative though.
    2. What are your thoughts on it now, Jabber? Please share now that EoD is upon us.
    3. This makes scattered's vote look a little better now, ngl. As town, he could have tried to vote Vom to prevent RNG.
    4. Makes sense.

    This post makes quite a lot of sense, especially the bolded.

    Some postscript notes, as well as thoughts.
    a) Jabber entered thread quickly, while scattered took longer. This could be indicative of timezones, but also Jabber's case is more prepared, while Scattered's (iirc) was a little more haphazard. Will consider this in Part 3.
    b) Jade, what do you think? We have one more day, jabber/scattered are crossvoting, bb's leaning Jabber, and I'm leaning scattered. It is likely that we will need you to tiebreak.
     
  17. Ephemera Faerie of the Viridian Forest
    Ephemera

    Member

    2.2

    Scattered's Start of Day

    NAI. At least scattered wasn't frozen i guess.

    hm. Weird. Did scattered not know that if we miselimmed someone not primed there we lose? Is this a derpclear????
    The reasoning on jabber knowing it wasn't MYLO – I'm almost certain it was. Amici was likely not primed. As such I kinda don't see the reasoning there as valid.
    Next: despite saying that I have had a lot of townie and scummy points, scattered has not considered the fact that I could be scum. While he's right, he's also only considering Jabber. hmmmm.

    IRL stuff. I get you completely. I still am sus of you though for other reasons.

    Hm. If D4 wasn't MYLO, this would make sense. but if jabber were scum the only way for it not to be MYLO is if amici were primed. I can't see this world being true.

    hm. makes sense though.

    also makes sense

    weird post, idgi.

    Scattered likes complimenting the scumteam. NAI but... eh. I think scum's played a pretty good game whoever they are, but I don't really mention it much. Probably nothing though.

    (listening to Professor Layton as you solve is fun. listening to the Divine Beast soundtracks is stressful, but fuels determination. fun.)
    Only a couple more parts to go. I may take a little longer for those, since i have dinner and IRL stuff. They are coming.
     
  18. Ephemera Faerie of the Viridian Forest
    Ephemera

    Member

    Two more posts to go: 2.3 (Jabber v Scattered argument), and Part 3: thoughts

    I'm gonna be out for a little bit due to dinner and IRL commitments, but will be back with a vote.

    Apologies for the walls :p
    i thought i was done with walls, but walls weren't done with me
     
  19. Ephemera Faerie of the Viridian Forest
    Ephemera

    Member

  20. scattered mind Competitive VG Forums Mod
    scattered mind

    Forum Mod Member

    Again. I already explained why I read jabber as scum and everyone else town. Seriously I am done repeating myself.
     

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