Finished Mafia LXI: Forest Fire: Game Over!

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MegaPod_781 said:
Ugh, sorry for taking so long to get back to this game. And happy birthday, scattered mind!

On the topic of me “piggybacking,” all I really have to say about that besides that, for better or worse, I’m usually more of a reactive player than an aggressive one, and basically keep an eye out for what cases I agree or disagree with or what slip-ups I can find. So yeah, I guess some piggybacking results from that and there’s no point trying to claim that any of my cases so far have been particularly original. Maybe it is a sucky playstyle, but at the end of the day, the point of the game is to make what I think is the right vote, even if I don’t come off as original. And sometimes my thoughts even line up with someone else’s before I see they posted it. I was going to post something similar to scattered’s comment on bb’s “smear campaign” post, but it would’ve come off as an echo of him anyways, so yeah. It was quicker to just say I agreed with him and why I did.

And for the record, I never meant to insinuate that I was pressing anyone for info when I wasn’t. By “get better at pressing people for info,” I meant, like, getting better at actually making a point to do it at all. >_>

As for my “weird progression,” sure, I suppose it looks weird that I was scumreading Eph at first and then going along with one of his cases. But reads do change, and as iffy as I was on Eph much of the previous day, I’m more inclined to believe that Eph is Town at this point because of how his solving has improved since the start.
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skdjghfkrglrkg I'm having trouble quoting again.

This explanation seems... alright to me? I'm not sure it actually does that much, but something about it makes me inclined to believe him.

Actually from mega this is entirely a response post to his case which I don't love, if you're gonna post something I'd like to see some attempt at solving/asking questions/reads/whatever, just something rather than what's pretty much just a defense post? That's my opinion at least.

Mega, since you seem to be currently going for bb, thoughts on his posts since you last posted? Also, what do you think about Amici? Honestly, just like, thoughts on people in general?

bbninjas said:
I don't like this post because it's very shallow. Amici hasn't engaged with any of the points that might suggest Ephemera is town: that Eph switched over to a bbn vote despite it putting Ephemera into a tie with the Celever wagon. It would be much easier and safer for scum!Eph to park their vote on Cel. Amici's post also doesn't engage with the point that Eph didn't care about getting lynched (see spoiler), which is townie. This is stranger because a person in Amici's towncore (me) raised this points and did a complete 180 on Eph, which should have caught town!Amici's attention.
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Honestly, this on Amici. I like this a lot.

Um yeah so Amici is still pretty scummy to me imo. Most of her posts are only instigated when she is pressured or asked questions. She still really hasn't made a case of her own. Also, in this last post:

Amici said:
From my backread of day 1 with cel town in mind
FL's vote seems rather oppurnistic
Mega is no longer in my town core (was mainly basing this off of cel/mega scum team was a gut shot I was willing to go with)
BB is net neutral, some things looks a tad worse but a lot of things seem better. Still in my personal town core
Ephe looks terribad. Since Cel=Town is a thing im willing to bet Ephe is scum
In fact
##MURDERIZE:Ephe
Jade on the back read sorta just oozies towniness, A lot of the stuff they've said I dont think comes from a scum POV
SM is forgettable but not horrible.
Vom is eh, not to high on them.
Town Core
Me/BB/Jade
PoE
Ephe/SM/Vom/Mega
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Reasons for like, all of this? You're saying things like "Vom is eh, not to high on them" but how what about them makes you say that?

Your vote is currently on Ephe. What are your thoughts on the other cases right now? The big ones appear to be mega and bb, so what do you think about those?

My vote is most likely going to be on Mega or Amici. I would like to see if and what they say before deadline, and I will be on again before deadline to get my vote in so don't worry about that.
 
Mega's response doesn't actually address the case.
MegaPod_781 said:
Ugh, sorry for taking so long to get back to this game. And happy birthday, scattered mind!

On the topic of me “piggybacking,” all I really have to say about that besides that, for better or worse, I’m usually more of a reactive player than an aggressive one, and basically keep an eye out for what cases I agree or disagree with or what slip-ups I can find. So yeah, I guess some piggybacking results from that and there’s no point trying to claim that any of my cases so far have been particularly original. Maybe it is a sucky playstyle, but at the end of the day, the point of the game is to make what I think is the right vote, even if I don’t come off as original. And sometimes my thoughts even line up with someone else’s before I see they posted it. I was going to post something similar to scattered’s comment on bb’s “smear campaign” post, but it would’ve come off as an echo of him anyways, so yeah. It was quicker to just say I agreed with him and why I did.

And for the record, I never meant to insinuate that I was pressing anyone for info when I wasn’t. By “get better at pressing people for info,” I meant, like, getting better at actually making a point to do it at all. >_>

As for my “weird progression,” sure, I suppose it looks weird that I was scumreading Eph at first and then going along with one of his cases. But reads do change, and as iffy as I was on Eph much of the previous day, I’m more inclined to believe that Eph is Town at this point because of how his solving has improved since the start.
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Mega's case was predominantly about my Celever pitch, which I have addressed many times; not only about me being overdefensive or the "smear campaign"! Why has Mega forgotten half of his own case on me? Why does Mega only address my defenses when someone else has responded to them first (piggybacking)? This post doesn't respond to this point which I've made many times already.

This point suggests that Mega changed their read on Eph (to a neutral or town read), and then agreed with Eph. The fact is that Mega trusted Eph's logic when Eph was listed as Mega's second scummiest player. This is the issue of progression, and this is the key point that Mega avoids addressing in this post.

Happy birthday scattered!

scattered mind said:
The case on bbninjas made by megapod is good and better than lily and jade. Bbninjas trying to discredit megapod and putting the impression that mega did not originally made the case is also weird. Megapod not owning the case is also also weird.
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I would appreciate it if you explained how the case is good (how exactly was I being overdefensive and the two other questions) instead of just saying it's good.

I don't believe I've indicated that Mega did not originally make the case, except to say that Eph started it first.
 
bbninjas said:
Amici has also isolated Eph's vote without considering context, which one NOT would expect if Amici was reading back. The "since Eph pushed Celever and Celever=town, Eph is scum" argument is rather linear. It's quite ironic because Amici themself voted for Celever, and should be in the limelight more because they haven't been particularly transparent about their reads.
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Vom said:
I think by itself that's not even an argument coming from the D2 perspective where we know for a fact Celever is town - hindsight is 20/20. That has to be the mafia equivalent of a cherry on top of a case or at least a supporting argument, not the basis of the whole case.
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I wasn't quite understanding this - but turns out I missed a word in my original post. I would not have expected Amici to so readily isolate Eph's vote when he had just reread the context of that vote.

Do you have other examples? Because I explicitly said there wasn't enough info on Lily, the most inactive player in the game to read her either way; Jade, a relatively inactive player is one of my town reads; and scattered mind, another relatively inactive player, is not; yourself, one of the most vocal players in the game, are not at the top of my town reads. As for that example, that was just a comment - I never said I town read Amici.
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No; I probably mean "rhetoric" more than "reads", I'm not sure how others feel about this. It's just a side comment from player-to-player about how I feel about some of your rhetoric, in that "they're contributing / not contributing" based on a surface level analysis, but there's not too much consideration of the actual substance of those posts. Maybe I'm completely wrong.

Wasn't that one of Amici's very first posts? Along the D1 post where she kinda tries to lead the town in RVS. Either way, I quoted the exact post in my post with all the quotes, but her post as I understood it was basically "she's fine, she's trying" which is very much new player pass.

scattered actually used that in his case against Lily, hence I'm less drawn to him (at least as far as that specific reason is concerned) and moreso Amici, but until now he's never brought it up again after coming in multiple times so I can only assume he doesn't deem it important or a valid point anymore.
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If you're basing this on an early Day 1 post where Amici initially wrote off Fiery, then I think it's made redundant (maybe inconsistent?) by this later post where Amici did no write off Fiery.

Jadethepokemontrainer said:
I'm not sure if I misunderstood this or not. Have you still never finished this post, or was the post after this one the rest of what you had to say? Just wanna be sure.
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I still have never "finished" the post, but the post after summarises what I would've said. The key point is that half of Mega's case on me was that my Celever pitch made no sense. However, he agreed with scattered (who was pursuing the "bbn was overdefensive" point) , yet Mega didn't respond to my defense where I show that my Celever pitch had good reason. This is despite the Celever pitch being fundamental in Mega's case on me.
 
bbninjas said:
I still have never "finished" the post, but the post after summarises what I would've said. The key point is that half of Mega's case on me was that my Celever pitch made no sense. However, he agreed with scattered (who was pursuing the "bbn was overdefensive" point) , yet Mega didn't respond to my defense where I show that my Celever pitch had good reason. This is despite the Celever pitch being fundamental in Mega's case on me.
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Right, gotcha. Thought as much but also wanted to double check.

Also I just realized I don't believe I said it before, so happy birthday Scattered <3
 
For those who like metareads; I was reading back Mafia L for fun and noticed that Mega didn't really piggyback when he was town in that game. Albeit it's a larger game; I think this demonstrates that Mega doesn't echo as much as he seems to be suggesting here:

MegaPod_781 said:
On the topic of me “piggybacking,” all I really have to say about that besides that, for better or worse, I’m usually more of a reactive player than an aggressive one, and basically keep an eye out for what cases I agree or disagree with or what slip-ups I can find. So yeah, I guess some piggybacking results from that and there’s no point trying to claim that any of my cases so far have been particularly original. Maybe it is a sucky playstyle, but at the end of the day, the point of the game is to make what I think is the right vote, even if I don’t come off as original. And sometimes my thoughts even line up with someone else’s before I see they posted it. I was going to post something similar to scattered’s comment on bb’s “smear campaign” post, but it would’ve come off as an echo of him anyways, so yeah. It was quicker to just say I agreed with him and why I did.
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town!Mega from Mafia L, original analysis or evaluation in red:
MegaPod_781 said:
Well, it’s not good we lost our Masons and Name Cop, though I suppose the latter isn’t so devastating a blow, considering we were warned that the Pokémon species in the game wouldn’t all necessarily belong to the intuitive alignment. But I have one idea where to go from here. I have a theory that AP and Goomy are scumbuddies. There were instances where each one tried to cover for the other: AP’s post blatantly shifting the attention off Goomy and to DFL, and Goomy’s post saying AnimePsyclone “just doesn’t seem scum.” We could test my theory by lynching one of them. And not to ignore his stalling or fluff like others have noted:

##VOTE: AnimePsyclone

An alternative if we do not go this route is lynching TSL for blatant fluff to seem involved. And pika and PMJ both have contradictions to address iirc.
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The majority of town!Mega's input is original here.
 
Vom said:
I would like to point out scattered joined this wagon pretty late in the day despite making arguably better cases on both Lily and Jade. And now he's gunning for bb for...reasons?
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you mean you dont understand the case on bb?
 
bbninjas said:
I would appreciate it if you explained how the case is good (how exactly was I being overdefensive and the two other questions) instead of just saying it's good.

I don't believe I've indicated that Mega did not originally make the case, except to say that Eph started it first.
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Case is good because if you can see from the perspective of someone that is scum it is easy to understand why you reacted this way. From a perspective of town - someone who repeatedly calling you schummy with no reason and gaining no traffic of votes is nothing. All I would do is to ask eph to give any reason. The message you posted to him about stopping campaigning against you is off and it hints to a scum mindset. Your later response is also more scummy - you refuse to acknoledge the real case and trying to brush it as being defensive against attacks on you. I would excpect from town bbninjas to understand the point first and then explain that he wasn't panicked in that post or something like that.

@Fiery_Lugia - Should I stop talking to you? are you going to get modkilled? or are you still playing?
 
scattered mind said:
Case is good because if you can see from the perspective of someone that is scum it is easy to understand why you reacted this way. From a perspective of town - someone who repeatedly calling you schummy with no reason and gaining no traffic of votes is nothing. All I would do is to ask eph to give any reason.
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The bolded is a good point and I don't have any particular explanation for this. I was just sick of (scum!Ephemera) pedaling my name so much or (town!Ephemera) not actually solving or scumhunting anything substantial (if I was wrong about my scumread).

Why are you convinced that I was defensive scum and not frustrated town?

The message you posted to him about stopping campaigning against you is off and it hints to a scum mindset.
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Again, I did not say this. I said something more nuanced: that Eph needs to stop campaigning based on hunches, and that Eph needs to instead campaign based on evidence.

Why do you keep misconstruing this?

Your later response is also more scummy - you refuse to acknoledge the real case and trying to brush it as being defensive against attacks on you. I would excpect from town bbninjas to understand the point first and then explain that he wasn't panicked in that post or something like that.
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Unfortunately I don't understand what you're referring to here (if you're talking about your case on me, what is the real case then and where did I not acknowledge it?) so I can't comment.
 
Alright, so it looks like we've got roughly 4 hours til EoD. Gotcha. Why is bb currently in the lead for getting eliminated? Not sure I entirely get that. I hope people turn up before EoD (particularly @Amici and @MegaPod_781 please because still haven't heard from y'all).

For now though, ##FORTHEHONOROFGRAYSKULL: Mega


Heh Vom that ones for you.
 
okay, i tried to ISO bb. i actually skimmed the whole thread, and tried to put all his quotes in a single wallpost.

then i realized it would be long, pointless, and kinda kill the thread.
suffice it to say that I think it's now possible to have a town!bb. he did have a few reads on town + good pushes + good suspicions.
the tunnel on me is bleh but tunneling happens. the probably worst part in his ISO is the reaction test, where he criticizes the whole cel wagon, but honestly I think bb could be genuine for the most part.

still think he could be scum, but I don't sus him as much as some others.

lemme read his thought process a little more, then I can give a better read on bb, and hopefully a better thing on mega too.
 
okay, read bb's thought process in detail, and combining that with my quick skim of his ISO.

I'm conflicted. bb's been pretty reasonable and made good points on reread – but his discrediting of the whole wagon was not great, and his thought process post feels a little forced imo.

I'm still gonna suspect him, he's not a townread by any measure, but I think there's better people to elim today.

Between mega and bb: I'm fairly sure that's not both wolves, we can count that out right now. But could it be town/town? I didn't think so a few hours ago, lemme sanity check that now, which I will do by first going through every other player lol.

cel confo town.
scattered/vom defo town. townie mindset, townie solving, and townie behavior.
jade looks really town. Made points on that, his posts have had good thoughts that aren't echoing other people or being original just to be contrary.
lily should step it up. just post. i think that's town though, still didn't sound coached and honestly when you're solving alone as town it's harder to make yourself do so. Newbie scum has a motivating factor – post so your partner isn't alone.

At this point, I believe the PoE is amici/mega/bb. I think it's a good PoE. Also this probably means bb/mega isn't v/v. Good, I'd hate to see two town players case each other that hard.

I no longer think bb should be the elim today. ##UNISO: bbninjas (feelsbad about lack of ISO :()

I need to look into the mega case more closely, but if mega's scum that clears bb, if he's town that's a pretty big mark on bb. They're basically a thunderdome that has to be tested before a potential LYLO, which is tomorrow assuming no firefighter saves.

I think a ##VOTE: Amici doesn't hurt for now – her content's been kinda lacking imo. Lemme check the mega case to see if that wagon is better though.

Final stuff: I apologize heavily for my drop off D2, i may have burnt out a little + IRL duties. I'm disappointed with how I started out great, but fell off sharply, and I'm just. kinda mad at myself. I should do better. I will do better tomorrow (granted i don't get ignited lol).
 
lemme speculate a little bit about possible scumteams – this is not something to be taken as fact, i'm just trying to check myself.

vom/scattered are never scum. i've said this so many times, but i'm not gonna stop saying that.

so, let's move on to the others, not including cel:

lily
mega
jade
amici
bb

is lily part of the scumteam? maybe. I personally don't think so, it's harder to put thoughts out as new town and thus that could be the reason for lurking this much. For the sake of my sleep-deprived brain, I'm gonna assume lily town for this exercise.

mega/bb is never the scumteam.
I don't really see Jade being scum with mega here, a bus is not necessary, and his vote isn't distancing. Also i think Jade is town.
Amici could honestly be scum with any of them.

end thought exercise.

Now, what was the point of this? honestly there's not too much importance to this, but i think scum could leave themselves more back doors to be partnered with people.
Amici could be partnered with anyone – I don't think that's a good sign.

Okay, now for two more things:

one.
I think a vote on amici is good today. Would a vote on mega be good, or one on bb? In my opinion, yes – I believe we have decent chances of hitting scum in that whole pool.
Amici's content is not a lot – to be honest I recall her being in thread but not what she was saying, which isn't a good impression to have.

However, i'm not sure if we want to leave the bb/mega thunderdome for later. It could be hard to figure them out D3 if they're both alive. But! They could also change their tunes if they are left to discuss another day. That's a point towards amici wagon.

Essentially, I'm conflicted about who to vote today, but I think i'll stick with amici. Mega/bb has a wolf there, but I'm neither informed enough nor coherent enough to evaluate that well. Both have points against the other.

two.
another thought exercise: trust fall.
This exercise should be enacted at start of D3, so don't worry about it too much.
However, I'll put it out here now, just in case, and to have it circle in your minds over the night phase.

the trust fall exercise, which I stole from JJJ in champs, which he stole from... somewhere, is list the strongest reason you have to townread everyone in the game.
Essentially, go down the list with as little bias as possible, and think of the best reason to townread each player.

okay, incoherent ephe post over. I'll do better tomorrow.
 
what do you guys think btw: should we elim within bb/mega to at least have some idea of the other's alignment tomorrow, or should we go for amici?
 
scattered mind said:
you mean you dont understand the case on bb?
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I understand the case on bb, what I don't understand is why you seem to tunnel on it, especially over your own cases.
Ephemera said:
vom/scattered are never scum. i've said this so many times, but i'm not gonna stop saying that.
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I don't like Amici's posting, but I still think Mega or bb are both better options, and from those two I think Mega is the better option. Besides my previous post, I don't see anyone overly invested in maintaining those 2 as the main wagons, so that solidifies my thinking that it's not v/v, and so one of them should be our elimination for the Day I think.

Also, why is scattered never scum? Wondering because he's not especially high on my rainbow.
Jadethepokemontrainer said:
For now though, ##FORTHEHONOROFGRAYSKULL: Mega
Heh Vom that ones for you.
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Oh yeah, She-Ra taking over the forums.

##UNVERB: scattered mind ##PRIMESEESALL: mEGApOD_108
 
Yikes, not only did I do it with all caps still on but I also got the wrong number.

##PRIMESEESALL: MegaPod_781
 
Day 2 End​
Final Vote Count:
MegaPod_781 (3)-bbninjas, Jadethepokemontrainer, Vom
bbninjas (2)-MegaPod_781, scattered mind
Ephemera (1)-Amici
Amici (1)-Ephemera
Not Voting: Fiery_Lugia

Vote History:
#20-Celever voted bbninjas
#23-Amici voted Celever
#27-Ephemera voted Celever
#30-Vom voted Fiery_Lugia
#32-Ephemera voted Vom
#41-Ephemera voted Ephemera
#42-Ephemera voted Vom
#47-Vom voted Ephemera
#51-Jadethepokemontrainer voted MegaPod_781
#55-Celever voted Ephemera
#81-MegaPod_781 voted bbninjas
#102-bbninjas voted Ephemera
#120-Ephemera voted bbninjas
#123-Ephemera voted MegaPod_781
#139-MegaPod_781 voted Ephemera
#151-Scattered mind voted Amici
#162-Ephemera voted Celever
#244-MegaPod_781 voted Celever
#249-Jadethepokemontrainer voted Celever
#268-scattered mind voted Fiery_Lugia
#276-Ephemera voted bbninjas
#288-scattered mind voted Celever
#297-Celever voted bbninjas
#302-Fiery_Lugia voted Celever
#304-Celever voted Amici
#308-MegaPod_781 voted bbninjas
#320-scattered mind voted bbninjas
#348-bbninjas voted MegaPod_781
#353-Amici voted Ephemera
#357-Vom voted scattered mind
#358-Ephemera voted bbninjas
#390-Jadethepokemontrainer voted MegaPod_781
#392-Ephemera voted Amici
#395-Vom voted MegaPod_781

MegaPod_781 was eliminated. They were:
Mafia Arsonist

The day has ended, so you may not post. The Night 2 post and flavor will be up shortly.
 
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Night 2 Start​
The day's discussion had taken an urgent tone after the failure that had occurred yesterday. The animals were all chattering ceaselessly, hoping that by doing so, they could identify their foes. Amidst this chatter, however, stood one animal in relative silence: the butterfly. Throughout the debate, it had simply stood there, the sun reflecting off its indigo wings.
"Butterfly, you haven't spoken much," said one of the animals, "what do you think?"
"Well, I-uh-" the butterfly began, before being interrupted by a sudden noise of breaking metal, "all of those earlier ideas are-"
At this point, its wings began to quickly buzz, with steam bursting from its body. The next few seconds were chaos. The butterfly changed voices, whispering quietly "Frank, there is something very wrong with this machine" before suddenly combusting, with shards of metal and wiring erupting from the tree where it had sat. The other animals scattered in fear of danger to themselves, luckily avoiding injury from this explosion.

When the dust settled and the council reconvened, they saw a clearing in disarray, with the butterfly's tree reduced to mere rubble. The robotic butterfly was promptly kicked out of the forest council by the astonished forest dwellers. They had successfully removed one of the spies for the humans, and though the damage was great and there were surely more spies, this was a cause for celebration.
Night 2 has started and will last 23.25 hours, until July 23rd at 5 PM EST. During this time, the Town Firefighter and remaining Mafia Arsonist may submit their actions.
Do not post in the thread during the night phase.

I am currently looking for subs. If you are interesting in being a sub, please contact me.

The following player highly missed the average of two posts per day standard and will be subbed out if a sub is found, unless they dramatically increase their activity:
@Fiery_Lugia

The following players missed the average of two posts per day standard and should increase their activity level in Day 3 or risk being subbed out:
@Amici
@Jadethepokemontrainer
 
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Day 3 Start​
As the sun set, the animals had a feast, with all of the finest berries the forest could offer, to commemorate the success of the day's events. They went to bed stuffed with food, so fast asleep that they would never notice the presence of any animal walking among them.
In the morning, they all woke up refreshed, ready to start a new day and build off their prior success.

Day 3 has started! It will last for 96 hours, until July 27th at 5 PM EST.
The majority to eliminate for today is 4. If/when someone has 4 votes, the day will end instantly and that player will be eliminated.
As an eliminated tree, @Celever may not vote, but he may continue to post in-thread.
You all may now post in the thread.

P.S. We are still looking for subs. If you wish to be a sub, please contact me.
 
Woohoo we got one!

Okay, now that we know Mega was scum, I feel fairly good with bb being town.
Amici = my highest scumread right now. I would still love to hear from you and your response to my questions from yesterday.

Probably won't be on again tonight, but definitely will be tomorrow. I just wanted to pop in and say ayyy we did it.
 
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