Finished Mafia LXI: Forest Fire: Game Over!

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##VOTE: Apathy

@everyone Lets eliminate this apathy guys! The support for the Mega wagon literally sprung out of nowhere and the elimination could've been single-handedly decided by scum.

All you need to do is:
  • Cast a vote early based on your lowest scumread. Vote in the first 24-48 hours, give a reason, and then move your vote later in the day if you think there's a better option.
  • As soon as you read a case, post that you either agree (for xyz reasons) or disagree (for abc reasons).
Discussing is always more important than solving.
 
Let's start discussing.

I'm reading both Jade and Vom as locktown:
- Jade pointed out that there's only 4 hours left in the day. Scum!Jade could have easily ignored mentioning this fact and secured a mislynch on me.
- Scum!Vom could have easily dropped their vote on the bbn wagon instead of the Mega wagon, so breaking the tie wins massive townie points in my book. Maybe Jade or Vom are scumbuddies bussing Mega into oblivion, but seems unlikely (I can give reasons), and if this actually what happened, scumteam deserve to win. Dx

These questions should take you 5 minutes each:
@Amici Who do you think is Mega's scumbuddy?
@Everyone Please also answer the above question, and cast a vote on the person who you think is Mega's scumbuddy.
@Everyone What are your reads on Jade and Vom? Do you agree or disagree?

Please post in the next 24 hours and vote in your next post.

Jadethepokemontrainer said:
Woohoo we got one!

Okay, now that we know Mega was scum, I feel fairly good with bb being town.
Amici = my highest scumread right now. I would still love to hear from you and your response to my questions from yesterday.

Probably won't be on again tonight, but definitely will be tomorrow. I just wanted to pop in and say ayyy we did it.
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@Jadethepokemontrainer Appreciate the townread, but if your progression is a linear Mega pushed bbn --> bbn pushed Mega --> Mega flipped scum --> bbn must be town, then that's a bit of a dangerous way to clear someone. It disregards the bus option. I'd encourage finding a more nuanced reason for your read.
 
@Fiery_Lugia I assume you've read the thread? Who do you think is the last scum? (The last scum is the only other player on the same team as Mega)
 
Seeing as we now know Mega was scum, I reread parts of the thread and like scattered's game even less afterwards - I don't get why he's lock town in some people's reads.

Exhibit A:
scattered mind said:
Good points Mega!

##VOTE:bbninjas

The defensivness there is quite telling. Eph wasn't running any case on bbninjas specifically as he was just trying to find out whether or not a scum is among his voters, which with this small setup is very probable.
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While this may or may not be a chainsaw defense, this post is trying to make bb out to be super defensive and discredit him, also discrediting bb's case on Mega by exntension. Or at least his points, I don't remember if he had actually made a full-blown case at this point.

Exhibit B:
MegaPod_781 said:
Yeah, basically what scattered said. I can see why you’d think that Eph had been throwing shade in your general direction (plus mine and Vom’s and Cel’s), but even out of the red quotes most focused on you specifically, Eph’s position on you being scum seemed iffy at best, nowhere near as aggressive as a “very persistent smear campaign,” as you put it, would seem to imply...
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Mega agreeing with scattered using a terrible argument, as "aggressive" and "persistent" do not have the same meaning in this context, and further discrediting bbninjas by the use of "would seem to imply" which labels his statement as misdirecting and dishonest.

Exhibit C:
scattered mind said:
The case on bbninjas made by megapod is good and better than lily and jade. Bbninjas trying to discredit megapod and putting the impression that mega did not originally made the case is also weird. Megapod not owning the case is also also weird.
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scattered agreeing that Mega's case on bbninjas was good (it wasn't), claiming it was even better than his own lily and jade cases. Also makes it look like bb is trying to discredit Mega when in fact it's the opposite - those two had been trying to discredit bb.

This, in addition to points on scattered mind already made (mainly lack of transparency/cooperation), leads me to...

##GOTTEM: scattered mind

That being said, if I have to ask @Amici to explain her Ephemera read a 5th time I'm gonna spontaneously combust.
 
the Mega wagon is pure as heck – Vom and Jade don't bus their scumbuddy if there was a perfectly good bb wagon right there as well, and bb doesn't case mega that hard on D2 – there was plenty of time for that on D3. Vom and Jade are more locktown than bb right now though – it could be a ploy from bb to get himself locked town while under pressure to case Mega completely, but that's really unlikely, and very tinfoil.

so:
Vom/Jade 100% town.
bb >>>>> rand town

i'll check scattered again, but I still think that vote on cel comes from town rather than scum.

so: amici/lily PoE, huh.

##SUP: Amici
 
further explanations for vom/jade locktown.

If pressure is mounting on mega, neither of them (as scum) put their votes there to make the mega wagon ahead. They could just have easily gone for bb, which would be extremely understandable from Vom's perspective, and pretty reasonable from any other player, including Jade. The bus on Mega – if they were bussing – could have easily been saved for today, and would still get them towncred.

Next: bb is probably town. I can see a world where mega/bb decide to case each other when they both started getting major pressure so the remaining one gets a ton of towncred, so town!bb isn't a lock, but I really don't think a mega/bb scumteam would have done it on D2.
If the scumteam was bb/mega, bb doesn't decide to start reading me town at beginning of D2, since I was under a lot of suspicion back then and a miselim on me would have been pretty easy to score. Hence bb is very likely town.

Will reevaluate scattered within the next 24 hours, but his behavior has been very similar to his town games, and his votes, especially those on D1, have been indicative of town.
 
bbninjas said:
Let's start discussing.

I'm reading both Jade and Vom as locktown:
- Jade pointed out that there's only 4 hours left in the day. Scum!Jade could have easily ignored mentioning this fact and secured a mislynch on me.
- Scum!Vom could have easily dropped their vote on the bbn wagon instead of the Mega wagon, so breaking the tie wins massive townie points in my book. Maybe Jade or Vom are scumbuddies bussing Mega into oblivion, but seems unlikely (I can give reasons), and if this actually what happened, scumteam deserve to win. Dx

These questions should take you 5 minutes each:
@Amici Who do you think is Mega's scumbuddy?
@Everyone Please also answer the above question, and cast a vote on the person who you think is Mega's scumbuddy.
@Everyone What are your reads on Jade and Vom? Do you agree or disagree?

Please post in the next 24 hours and vote in your next post.


@Jadethepokemontrainer Appreciate the townread, but if your progression is a linear Mega pushed bbn --> bbn pushed Mega --> Mega flipped scum --> bbn must be town, then that's a bit of a dangerous way to clear someone. It disregards the bus option. I'd encourage finding a more nuanced reason for your read.
Click to expand...

Now, I'm fairly sure scum!bb can post this as well, but this is >>rand town. I especially like the point about telling Jade that clearing bb on the mega case is dangerous – again, can be said by scum, but encouraging a townie to look closer at your posts is a dangerous play if you're scum.

Again, tinfoil suggests that bb can still be scum, but honestly the simpler world is often the real one. I'll save reevaluating bb for D4, if we get there.

Finally, I have a suggestion: what do you guys think if Firefighter claims if they are not me/vom/jade/bb? That would lock them town, unless we get counterclaims – which would just make it really dang easy to find the last scum – and would reduce the PoE.

I know this kinda outs me as not firefighter, but I think that was fairly obvious anyway, and firefighter has a really hard job lol – it's better to treat them as a locktown.

Firefighter, don't claim yet. I just want to see what people think of this idea.
 
(oh how the turns have tabled, i remember when amici was my top townread and vom my scummiest scumread :p )
 
Ephemera said:
the Mega wagon is pure as heck – Vom and Jade don't bus their scumbuddy if there was a perfectly good bb wagon right there as well, and bb doesn't case mega that hard on D2 – there was plenty of time for that on D3. Vom and Jade are more locktown than bb right now though – it could be a ploy from bb to get himself locked town while under pressure to case Mega completely, but that's really unlikely, and very tinfoil.

so:
Vom/Jade 100% town.
bb >>>>> rand town

i'll check scattered again, but I still think that vote on cel comes from town rather than scum.

so: amici/lily PoE, huh.

##SUP: Amici
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please talk about scattered!! right now he’s my biggest scumread followed by amici
 
(I mean, about how solidly town he is to you specifically, cause that’s what i don’t get )
 
I made an analysis yesterday about scattered's vote on cel – with v/v wagons D1, it would have been really easy for scum to vote another person meaninglessly and get none of the suspicion that comes from eliminating town. Yet scattered voted cel to make his vote matter between the cel/me wagons. That's townie thinking right there.

I'm gonna need to check that again – if cel was higher than me on his reads that would be a weird move I guess – but making your vote matter is a pretty town thing to do.
 
Ephemera said:
I made an analysis yesterday about scattered's vote on cel – with v/v wagons D1, it would have been really easy for scum to vote another person meaninglessly and get none of the suspicion that comes from eliminating town. Yet scattered voted cel to make his vote matter between the cel/me wagons. That's townie thinking right there.

I'm gonna need to check that again – if cel was higher than me on his reads that would be a weird move I guess – but making your vote matter is a pretty town thing to do.
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Yes, but what about things beyond that vote?
 
@Ephemera The Firefighter should only claim if they're on the chopping block with about 48 t0 24 hours or so to get until elimination (giving enough time for counterclaims). If someone does counterclaim the Firefighter, then we know one is lying, and so we have caught scum.

@Vom I don't really think scum!scattered would be so obvious and overt about buddying with scum!Mega, and especially not to the extent of them both agreeing near-totally with each other. Your take?

Vom said:
scattered agreeing that Mega's case on bbninjas was good (it wasn't), claiming it was even better than his own lily and jade cases. Also makes it look like bb is trying to discredit Mega when in fact it's the opposite - those two had been trying to discredit bb.
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This seems to be a bit hypocritical; if Mega's case wasn't good, then why did you let it consume the majority of discussion on Day 2? You seemed happy to let it run its course, essentially treating it as "good" yourself.

And on a similar thought:
Vom said:
  • I don't think bb was being overly defensive about Ephe, but he definitely is now. Still, I think only one of Mega and bb is scum (if any) and atm I'm leaning towards scum!Mega so I'm not sure what to make of this yet. Like I said, I want to see @MegaPod_781 's response first.
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@Vom you say that was I being overly defensive on Day 2; to clarify, what was I being overly defensive about again?

Ephemera said:
I made an analysis yesterday about scattered's vote on cel – with v/v wagons D1, it would have been really easy for scum to vote another person meaninglessly and get none of the suspicion that comes from eliminating town. Yet scattered voted cel to make his vote matter between the cel/me wagons. That's townie thinking right there.
Click to expand...
It seems like the Cel / Eph wagons were town-town, so I don't think scattered's vote is alignment indicative here. Scum could fake (or truly have) that reason just as easily as town.
 
Scum literally always make their votes matter. Not being on one of the top 2 / sometimes 3 wagons at EoD is a free ticket to the PoE.

>mfw everyone finally realises Amici is scum. Told yall U:
 
The more obvious scum choices are amici lily and admittedly myself - @Vom it is so happen that I agreed with mega and pushed for the bbninjas elimination but all I can say is that I really thought the case was good. Of course now with the reveal of mega as scum, bbninjas is probably town. Jade is one that I feel like I have to make a detailed post to come to a finite conclusion. I will do the same with amici. Lilly is probably going to get subbed/modkilled so I won’t bother.
 
bbninjas said:
@Vom I don't really think scum!scattered would be so obvious and overt about buddying with scum!Mega, and especially not to the extent of them both agreeing near-totally with each other. Your take?
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I mean, that whole thing is WIFOM, but I think he would the way the Day was looking - a bb elimination, to secure it.
bbninjas said:
This seems to be a bit hypocritical; if Mega's case wasn't good, then why did you let it consume the majority of discussion on Day 2? You seemed happy to let it run its course, essentially treating it as "good" yourself.
Click to expand...
I didn't though, I explicitly said that I did not think your defense was unwarranted relative to Ephemera. Beyond disagreeing with the case, I did let it run its course yes, because why would I kill discussion that a) does not hurt the town, it was mostly a back and forth with people popping in to comment on it or other things; and b) would give some more interactions, from which we ended up eliminating scum.
bbninjas said:
@Vom you say that was I being overly defensive on Day 2; to clarify, what was I being overly defensive about again?
Click to expand...
I said that about your defense to Mega, more specifically that huge post where you quoted many Ephe posts pressuring you, because I did not think town!bb would get that riled up about it to go and fetch all of that.
 
bbninjas said:
Cast a vote early based on your lowest scumread. Vote in the first 24-48 hours, give a reason, and then move your vote later in the day if you think there's a better option.
Click to expand...
Wait do you mean highest scumread, as in biggest, or am I misunderstanding?

bbninjas said:
@Jadethepokemontrainer Appreciate the townread, but if your progression is a linear Mega pushed bbn --> bbn pushed Mega --> Mega flipped scum --> bbn must be town, then that's a bit of a dangerous way to clear someone. It disregards the bus option. I'd encourage finding a more nuanced reason for your read.
Click to expand...
Mmm fair. I don't really see this case as being a bus but this is a good point. The fact that you pointed this out though instead of just letting me read you as towny does strengthen that read a bit though imo.

Celever said:
>mfw everyone finally realises Amici is scum. Told yall U:
Click to expand...
Excuse I been sus of Amici for a while now tyvm :U

Not sure what to think about her disappearance atp. Hoping she, you know, comes back?
She's still my top scumread, so ##ADVENTURE!!: Amici

That being said I'll look into Scattered as well, as his name is floating around.
 
Day 3: Vote Count 1​
Amici (2)-Ephemera, Jadethepokemontrainer
scattered mind (1)-Vom
Not Voting: Amici, bbninjas, Fiery_Lugia, scattered mind

If the day ended right now, Amici would be eliminated. There are 71.5 hours remaining in the day.

Vote History:
#20-Celever voted bbninjas
#23-Amici voted Celever
#27-Ephemera voted Celever
#30-Vom voted Fiery_Lugia
#32-Ephemera voted Vom
#41-Ephemera voted Ephemera
#42-Ephemera voted Vom
#47-Vom voted Ephemera
#51-Jadethepokemontrainer voted MegaPod_781
#55-Celever voted Ephemera
#81-MegaPod_781 voted bbninjas
#102-bbninjas voted Ephemera
#120-Ephemera voted bbninjas
#123-Ephemera voted MegaPod_781
#139-MegaPod_781 voted Ephemera
#151-Scattered mind voted Amici
#162-Ephemera voted Celever
#244-MegaPod_781 voted Celever
#249-Jadethepokemontrainer voted Celever
#268-scattered mind voted Fiery_Lugia
#276-Ephemera voted bbninjas
#288-scattered mind voted Celever
#297-Celever voted bbninjas
#302-Fiery_Lugia voted Celever
#304-Celever voted Amici
#308-MegaPod_781 voted bbninjas
#320-scattered mind voted bbninjas
#348-bbninjas voted MegaPod_781
#353-Amici voted Ephemera
#357-Vom voted scattered mind
#358-Ephemera voted bbninjas
#390-Jadethepokemontrainer voted MegaPod_781
#392-Ephemera voted Amici
#395-Vom voted MegaPod_781
#404-Vom voted scattered mind
#405-Ephemera voted Amici
#418-Jadethepokemontrainer voted Amici

@Amici and @Fiery_Lugia have both requested to sub out. They will be subbed out as soon as subs can be found, though they may post until then.
 
##VOTE: Amici Well if my top scumread has no desire to play this game now they’re in the spotlight, then might as well take the elim. I’d be happy with a hammer here, it doesn’t look like this day will go anywhere.

I called and explained an Amici x Mega scum team back in Day 2, so this is based on that.
 
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