Finished Mafia LXI: Forest Fire: Game Over!

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Finally, gonna put a few cases exploring some worlds. I know – especially on D1 – this type of analysis can be dead wrong, but it's worth a shot to explore anyway, and we're only 9 players.

Case 1: the POE is correct

In this world, the suspicion of everyone is mostly in the right place. There's at least one scum being voted, and the scum players are in the limelight.
If this is the world we're in, I think we have the game. Once we hit scum, it'll be easy to lock alignments from the flip.

Case 2: the POE is wrong

In this world, we're all barking up the wrong trees. Cases in this world would include amici/lily/jade being in the scumteam, maybe mega/scattered.
If we're in this world, we are going to need to reassess hard on D3 – we'll likely have miselimmed D1 and D2, so a lot of thought is going to be needed.
However, we can't just say the POE is wrong on tinfoil.

I believe sticking to the POE and general suspicion in thread would be good D1 and D2. If we miss both days, we'll need to pool everyone's thoughts on D3 and throw out our assumptions, starting from scratch. How's that?
 
oooooh, a full case on me! delayed my response to this because there was actual work to be done, since apparently when I defend myself I get called out for not solving lol, but now I got time to address this, and hooooo boy is it going to be fun! Or excruciating. Maybe both!

The Summary of the Case On Eph
Obviously I think##VOTE: Ephemera is the best elimination today. There are legitimate, alignment-indicative scumtells on them, unlike Celever's wagon which is a lynch-a-lurker in disguise. Eph's flip will also give plenty of information as Eph has direct and strong ties with basically everyone. @Ephemera, I'd appreciate it if you respond asap - even if there's not that much detail in your initial post

The scumtells:
  • Eph consistently provided no tangible evidence, tells or objective reasoning for their townreads and scumreads. These reads cannot be questioned or debated, so it discredits players and generates distrust in them without having to give evidence.
Evidence: Eph refers to "tone" 7 times throughout the first 24 hours before they got called out on it. Said "there must be scum in the group of 4 voting me"
and
took 68+ hours to find enough evidence to build a case on one of them. Eph first mentioned the four here [#83 or #120], and took until [#225] to build a case.

  • Closely related, how a person reads Eph seems to affect how Eph reads that person. This combined with the lack of tangible reasoning suggests an agenda. Scum want to make friends with the people already vouching for them, and want to scumread those who scumread them(as they are not of any use to the mafians (this is OMGUS). Scum run a smear campaign against the players who scumread them (see above).
Evidence: When Amici townread Eph, Eph townread Amici right back. When Vom, bbn and Cel scumread Eph, Eph scumread immediately afterwards. When Vom reduced their pressure on Eph, Eph weakened their scumread on Vom. Why this coincidence?

  • Eph flip-flopped through the four people that voted them, which means Eph had no evidence from the start on those people. This means Eph decided that one of those four are scum, and then tried to wedge evidence and tells to fit that narrative. This also suggests an agenda (i.e. discrediting those pressuring them).
Evidence: Just take a look at Eph's vote progression: from bbninjas [#120] --> Megapod [#123] --> Celever [#162], and anyone reading the thread would know that this flip-flopping is not just in votes. (There was no non-RVS vote on Vom from what I can see, but anyone reading the thread would know that Eph has been moving in and out with Vom throughout the entire day.)
  • Other tells which I don't think are as significant, but other people might think they are: lots of WIFOM (wine, or "what ifs"), getting defensive after very little pressure, redirecting attention towards the four (sometimes instead of responding to the main points from those people)
tl;dr
  1. Coincidental reads: Eph's reads consistently lacked tangible evidence to back them up, lack of evidence suggests an agenda
  2. Agenda: Eph consistently discredited / smeared the people who voted for them
  3. Flip-flopping: Eph flipflopped between the four people who voted for them, scum-reading them first and finding evidence second
  4. Minor tells: WIFOM, gets defensive easily, redirecting attention

sup bb. first things first, gonna ask: if you succeed on this elim on me, and I flip green, which unsuspecting town you gonna flip to next? :p

1.
love the way you take my early tone reads and spin them so that it looks like that's the only thing I ever post. discrediting > solving right here.
68+ hours before building a case? First off, really doubt that, given I was the one posting my reads lol. There are so many things wrong with this time-based read lol.
For the first day, I spent time trying to spark discussion and chaos. Snapreads were all i could give, what did you want then, a wallpost on how Lily's two posts showed she's town?
Next day, I had to spend a lot of time defending myself, since if i left those unaddressed, my cases would all be discredited. I also showed evidence, thank you for conveniently never mentioning that yay.
Now, I've built cases. I've put reads lists. I interact with almost everyone. Where are your reads?

god i hate how you want me to make full-on cases with so few posts to go on lol

2.
agenda, hm? If I had an agenda with that discrediting I certainly failed.
My snapreads were never meant to be permanent, I simply based them on tone initially. I later found most of my content/motivation reads to be similar, but I myself said my snapreads weren't good. How is that discrediting anyone effectively lol.
On your side you have building up a wagon, distancing from said wagon, then discrediting everyone who got on it. A much better planned discrediting than what I've supposedly done. Has an agenda to push – get three (3!!!) people's reads discredited so town solving D1 is hampered and distracted – which is a much clearer scum agenda than anything you can say about me.

3.
scum-reading first and finding evidence second? lol this really is a more effective smear campaign than anything you say I've been doing.
When I read posts, I don't stop and compile each post individually and analyze them immediately. I read the whole thread, dang it, and all the general ideas I've been getting from people's posts I place in the thread. If significant enough, I go back later on and compile the specific messages. Spelling out my process is fun yay (the things I do for mafia...)
love how that's spun into fabricating evidence yay.

oh yeah, the flip-flopping too. lol expecting me to 100% stick to my snapreads which i knew were bad

4.
WIFOM is NAI, and you've been doing a bit of it yourself lol.
Getting defensive and redirecting I've already addressed: I love the attention but if that's all that happens today D1's been wasted.
 
side note: i love bb as a human being, but there are no holds barred in mafia (save, you know, being actually spiteful)

this stuff is only gonna last the game. once it's done, it ain't carrying over.

thank you for attending my TED talk on how to deal with fights in mafia.
 
@everyone in thread right now

If i'm not mistaken, we have 4 hours left in the day. We have to step it up.

also going to tag everyone who's been inactive recently.
@Amici
@MegaPod_781
@Celever
@Fiery_Lugia

the time of reckoning is approaching, let us meet it.

guys pls :/
interact with me, i don't wanna feel like i'm screaming into the void here

anyone read my case on bb? thoughts? or thoughts unrelated to my case?

i have thoughts unrelated to my case – normally scum are a bit more active around EoD, to make sure their plans go through.
I feel like people aren't being more active because scum are happy with the way the day is going, smth like v/v wagons with scum not having wagons.
Might mean that Cel is town.
 
Okay, probably final thoughts if no one responds soon.
  1. I am going to miss EoD. I have to sleep, it's past midnight.
  2. I am going to leave my vote on bb. I believe in my case on him.
  3. If I end up being the elim, check bb/cel. I'll still be around, but I'm gonna have to step off the brakes, and without a vote I'm basically just gonna be white noise unless people listen to me lol.
  4. This has been a really fun game, thanks for that!
 
scattered – what do you think of bb?

(probably going to be last post, i'm really stretching it here)
 
I feel like people aren't being more active because scum are happy with the way the day is going, smth like v/v wagons with scum not having wagons.
Might mean that Cel is town.
Here's the solving Ephe I know and love.

As people on the Discord know I just woke up and I'm kinda trying to catch up with this but I'm also trying to do several other things. Tell me the hot take counterwagon (preferably bb) and I vote for them because scum have controlled this day and the two main wagons are probably v/v based on thread vibe/solving/energy/discussion basically everything.

Amici is a cool hot take wagon. Can we vote Amici.
 
Okay, probably final thoughts if no one responds soon.
  1. I am going to miss EoD. I have to sleep, it's past midnight.
  2. I am going to leave my vote on bb. I believe in my case on him.
  3. If I end up being the elim, check bb/cel. I'll still be around, but I'm gonna have to step off the brakes, and without a vote I'm basically just gonna be white noise unless people listen to me lol.
  4. This has been a really fun game, thanks for that!
it's only sleep

Since you're here, I wanna see what you make of this: bb was trying to bait you with the Celever wagon, since the reasoning behind it was incredibly flawed at the time (still is imo, just not as much) which he admitted to when I pointed out how bad it was. Curiously, he didn't push for more of a response from you after the beans had been spilled, but the point is that I don't see a contradiction here.

He originally agreed that the wagon was horrible, and has stuck to that until now. At no point has he supported it actually.
 
Here's the solving Ephe I know and love.

As people on the Discord know I just woke up and I'm kinda trying to catch up with this but I'm also trying to do several other things. Tell me the hot take counterwagon (preferably bb) and I vote for them because scum have controlled this day and the two main wagons are probably v/v based on thread vibe/solving/energy/discussion basically everything.

Amici is a cool hot take wagon. Can we vote Amici.

i has a bb case
please join bb wagon
woot
100% logic!!!!1!!!1

my brain is kinda going out the window, but i do have a case.
TL;DR his progression on you is horrible

pls read it
 
Also @scattered mind re-reading I can't quite put my finger on it, it's more the general feel. He seems more aggressive than usual, and uses 'I' statements more in a way that puts him, like, above the rest. "I'm liking this" (referring to Amici, who he seems to give a lot of credit to despite completely disagreeing with Ephe reading them town) is an example, as it puts him in a position where he is able to objectively judge gameplay and puts us in a position where his approval matters.
 
it's only sleep

Since you're here, I wanna see what you make of this: bb was trying to bait you with the Celever wagon, since the reasoning behind it was incredibly flawed at the time (still is imo, just not as much) which he admitted to when I pointed out how bad it was. Curiously, he didn't push for more of a response from you after the beans had been spilled, but the point is that I don't see a contradiction here.

He originally agreed that the wagon was horrible, and has stuck to that until now. At no point has he supported it actually.

oooooooh.

A few afterthoughts:
  1. a lot of bb's game, especially regarding me, revolved around discrediting me and taking away my agency. He's also shown this with some of his more minor reads and posts, such as the suspicion on Vom for weakening her read on me and supposedly backpedalling in a scummy way. He discredits my cases and continues to claim that they are simply OMGUS, disregarding all the thoughts I've put into them.
  2. the lack of major reads besides the suspicion on me is telling as well. First, he tells cel off for stating that there's not much to read into, but bb hasn't been doing too much reading into himself. It's been quite a lot of tunneling me, which translates easily to suddenly scumreading someone else once the miselim on me is scored.
  3. there's something i'm waiting and looking for in bb's reply to this case, which is going to be fun.
@everyone thoughts?

insert *you activated my trap card* here. you're not bb, but here's the rest of it since the jig is up.

I figured from his progression that it could have been motivated by that – a reaction test, so to speak (lolreactiontests). However, if he wanted to catch me voting easy lurker blah blah blah (again accusations of going for LHF – definition: low hanging fruit, easy miselims – would not be appreciated, i showed reasons), then why wait until the wagon picked up steam to put suspicion on not only me, but on everyone on the wagon? If it were a reaction test to supposedly catch me in the act of pushing an easy wagon, he wouldn't wait until there were 3 of us, then discredit people. That's not town motivated at all.
 
I figured from his progression that it could have been motivated by that – a reaction test, so to speak (lolreactiontests). However, if he wanted to catch me voting easy lurker blah blah blah (again accusations of going for LHF – definition: low hanging fruit, easy miselims – would not be appreciated, i showed reasons), then why wait until the wagon picked up steam to put suspicion on not only me, but on everyone on the wagon? If it were a reaction test to supposedly catch me in the act of pushing an easy wagon, he wouldn't wait until there were 3 of us, then discredit people. That's not town motivated at all.
I mean, I'm not bb so obviously I can't answer that, I wanna see what he says about it. @bbninjas
 
i mean now that i've said it it's out of the bag, easy for scum to react to lol

i'm gonna turn in, see y'all at SoD2
 
Here's the solving Ephe I know and love.

As people on the Discord know I just woke up and I'm kinda trying to catch up with this but I'm also trying to do several other things. Tell me the hot take counterwagon (preferably bb) and I vote for them because scum have controlled this day and the two main wagons are probably v/v based on thread vibe/solving/energy/discussion basically everything.

Amici is a cool hot take wagon. Can we vote Amici.

Yes please
 
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