Finished Mafia XLIX: Fight for the Falls!

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Day 4 final vote count.

Mariano11887 - bb, Megapod, Robin, bb (4)
MegaPod_781 - Robin, Mariano (1)
rainyman123 - bb (1)

By process of elimination, the town barely decided who they were going to throw out that day. They eventually decided on Quentin Trembley, and he was pushed into the middle.

Quentin: It is not me! I swear it isn't so!

Soos: Sorry dude, I want to trust you.

Gideon: Unfortunately we need to narrow our suspects down.

You are Quentin Trembley, and you are aligned with yourself.


Active Ability - -12 dollar bill: Once per night phase, you may pm the hosts “Offer: [Player]. If that player accepts your offer, you will be in an ‘alliance’ with them. If they are targeted during the night, the action will also affect you. Additionally, if you are targeted during the night, the action will also affect them. This does not apply with the night kill.


Win Condition: Be in 4 living alliances at once.

Robbie: Well, that seemed to be some threat out of the way. Could that be it?

Bill: hahaha. Oh no, we are far from over...
Mariano11887 has been lynched!

Night 4 ends Friday March 2nd at 10am EST.

 
Day 5

As the town once again made their way to the place they have now been in for over a month, they realize that they still have all six people in the clearing. No one was missing...
There has been no nightkill!

Day 5 ends Wednesday March 7th at 10am EST.

 
Well scum if you're going to give up than do it right! Your surrender will be accepted mercifully.
 
Yeah either scum forgot (unlikely, all but NoY have logged on since the day ended and unless Jade's a bastard mod extraordinaire, NoY is town. I could see Mega forgetting maybe.) or were stupid enough to try to kill NoY (since they very likely have that vest Camo claimed), or there's something out there we don't know about.

PoE is Mega, Robin, and Rainy. I think all three are good and bad options for different reasons. Currently, it's Rainy->Mega->Robin for me but I'm for sure not sure and wanna read back over their ISOs again.
 
Megapod is still the better lynch candidate. Rainyman's first ability swap makes me believe he's town. Why would scum swap their shapeshifter (actress) with a random player? Swapping with Jabberwock would've been far less risky. Jabber's claim hasn't scum written all over it and it is passive ability only. I think Lorde and Jabber would've realised that.

I also want to point out that Rainyman could've kept his locked ability to himself if he were scum. So that if Stanley Pines died he did not have to show whatever (potentially dangerous) ability unlocked.

Plus Megapod's posts reek of scum: not adding anything substantial himself, buddying with Jabberwock, jumping on Lorde and Draclord the minute there was decisive evidence.

> Percentage claim, no results

##VOTE: Megapod
 
Alright, here’s what I think. We either have Robin the improbable Godfather who passively reversed PMJ’s result, or NP is scum who did some serious bussing for town cred. And the character NP claimed is technically antagonistic, mind you, so...

##Vote: NinjaPenguin
 
That isn't a valid argument, Gideon Gleeful turned good in the end. Gideon and Quentin make sense as indies since they're both incredibly selfish. Let us not read into roles too much.

Never mind that I'm still keeping the possibility that NinjaPenguin is scum open. Unlikely, but I could think of a scenario: Rainyman's swap did not make a difference in this scenario. NinjaPenguin does have an ability that allows him to kill another player and he was the one that used it on GekkisaiDaiNi, not Draclord. Perhaps in some way the ability resulted in Jabberwock's death or it was inevitable. It could even be a play that acted as a last resort to remove all suspicions on NinjaPenguin.

A bit of a stretch, but the same can be said about the godfather theorie.

If I was godfather, I certainly would not have voted yesterday after I unvoted. I would've thought: good luck getting those two votes in 1 hour! If I could let the day end without a lynch, I would take that chance if I were scum.
 
NP has been unbelievably gusty if he's scum - counterclaiming an indie with an indie claim, shooting a fellow teammate, bussing half his other teammates... stuff like that.

##VOTE: Megapod, because I agree with Robin's evaluation of rainy's actions, and I haven't really noticed how much buddying there has been between him and the flips.
 
And the character NP claimed is technically antagonistic, mind you, so...
Have you not learned from this game that scum are provided with people they can pretend to be that aren't their real role?
It would be so much more than just serious bussing. I would have outed or killed all of my teammates. That's ridiculous.
Also, why no suspicion on rainy? He could easily be some bad guy who steals a good guy's abilities. He also claimed a long time after you iirc, which means he could potentially have included that clause in his role just for the towncred from you.
Never mind that I'm still keeping the possibility that NinjaPenguin is scum open. Unlikely, but I could think of a scenario: Rainyman's swap did not make a difference in this scenario. NinjaPenguin does have an ability that allows him to kill another player and he was the one that used it on GekkisaiDaiNi, not Draclord. Perhaps in some way the ability resulted in Jabberwock's death or it was inevitable. It could even be a play that acted as a last resort to remove all suspicions on NinjaPenguin.
But we've confirmed it wasn't me who did it, because that was the only ability possible and I most definitely confirmed I got Shapeshifting because of how I used it to out Scattered.
If I was godfather, I certainly would not have voted yesterday after I unvoted. I would've thought: good luck getting those two votes in 1 hour! If I could let the day end without a lynch, I would take that chance if I were scum.
Nah that's not really true. For you as scum, getting a lynch and kill in the last cycle would be essential, because that means that a lynch+kill today gives you the game due to your double vote weight.
Still think you're quite likely to be town, just not for those reasons.
 
The fact that Mega voted you over rainy makes me find Mega more scummy, for the record (since it appears he's just trying to get anyone lynched, and you'd be the optimal kill for the mafians right now.)
 
That isn't a valid argument, Gideon Gleeful turned good in the end.

Hm, didn’t know that.

NP has been unbelievably gusty if he's scum - counterclaiming an indie with an indie claim, shooting a fellow teammate, bussing half his other teammates... stuff like that.

##VOTE: Megapod, because I agree with Robin's evaluation of rainy's actions, and I haven't really noticed how much buddying there has been between him and the flips.
Fair point.

I haven’t noticed that, either.

Have you not learned from this game that scum are provided with people they can pretend to be that aren't their real role?
It would be so much more than just serious bussing. I would have outed or killed all of my teammates. That's ridiculous.
Also, why no suspicion on rainy? He could easily be some bad guy who steals a good guy's abilities. He also claimed a long time after you iirc, which means he could potentially have included that clause in his role just for the towncred from you.

I haven’t really found any reason to not believe rainy, especially since other players have confirmed the effects of his ability. It sounds like you have your doubts on him, though.
 
To be honest, all of my options are pretty improbable at this point, for different reasons. I don’t see a point in moving my vote until I have decided that someone’s a better lynch.
 
The fact that Mega voted you over rainy makes me find Mega more scummy, for the record (since it appears he's just trying to get anyone lynched, and you'd be the optimal kill for the mafians right now.)
Scum, please please please don't listen to this.
If we want to get into optimal kills, confirmed town BB is better than me, since although I'm basically confirmed town I still technically haven't flipped. I also have just as many useable abilities as BB: 0.
Also, anybody who decides to kill a survivor can join Vrack in the meanie pantheon.
 
Scum, please please please don't listen to this.
If we want to get into optimal kills, confirmed town BB is better than me, since although I'm basically confirmed town I still technically haven't flipped. I also have just as many useable abilities as BB: 0.
Also, anybody who decides to kill a survivor can join Vrack in the meanie pantheon.
By town, I mean non-mafia. It's close enough.
 
It is also possible that NinjaPenguin is both Survivor and Bill's Minion! Unbeknownst to his fellow scum that survivor is not just his safe claim. This gives NinjaPenguin all the reason to turn on Lorde and Jabberwock. Think about it: we have two indies and we know Mariano didn't lie about his claim. 8 town, 2 indies, 4 scum these aren't numbers of a healthy mafia game. besides Gideon Gleeful did work for Bill Cypher but also turned his back on him, it fits the role perfectly. So even though NinjaPenguin needs to be alive until the end of the game to win, NinjaPenguin is still very harmful indie aiming to wipe everyone out. He wouldn't reveal the entire mafia team right away since that would result in him being lynched next or (if possible) getting revenge killed by his fellow scum.

or you know, it is just Megapod.... but Jade's comment ''we are far from over'' makes me wonder if it isn't that simple...
 
It is also possible that NinjaPenguin is both Survivor and Bill's Minion! Unbeknownst to his fellow scum that survivor is not just his safe claim.
And how is that fair at all? The player who rolls this is strictly at a disadvantage to everybody in the game.
8 town, 2 indies, 4 scum these aren't numbers of a healthy mafia game.
One FtC, 2 masons, a ton of ways to confirm townies, a retributionist, and a tracker with a BPV certainly make up for that and more.
besides Gideon Gleeful did work for Bill Cypher but also turned his back on him, it fits the role perfectly.
Jade's comment ''we are far from over'' makes me wonder if it isn't that simple...
Reading into the host like this doesn't work, Robin. Flavor hunting fails 100% of the time. As for reading into "we're far from over", wouldn't that be TMI from the host if it was true?
So even though NinjaPenguin needs to be alive until the end of the game to win, NinjaPenguin is still very harmful indie aiming to wipe everyone out. He wouldn't reveal the entire mafia team right away since that would result in him being lynched next or (if possible) getting revenge killed by his fellow scum.
Except lol I did catch the entire mafia team and killed one of them for you guys.

For your theory to be correct, you're saying the host decided to screw a player over by giving them a strictly harder to achieve win-con than the rest of the game and decided to screw them over more by telling town it isn't the obvious lynch candidate (who btw isn't obvious at all; I'm still thinking there's a great chance at rainy being scum). That just doesn't work.
 
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