Finished Mafia LXI: Forest Fire: Game Over!

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You mean this @Vom? I know Lily was town, but I don't know her specific motivations. There is literally nothing I can say about anything she's done that you should assign any credence to anyway. As town or as scum, it just comes down to speculation, and either way I would spin her behavior in a townie light.
Humour me, if it doesn't get in the way of solving and stuff.
Not only is there not much basis for a townread, there's extravagant basis for a scumread. Caring about his progression is ultimately NAI and the Mega buddying thing is WIFOM, but those aren't the main points on him anyway — did you read my ISO on him?
Extravagant basis? Can you make a little summary?
 
Humour me, if it doesn't get in the way of solving and stuff.
Fair enough; quoting the posts below for reference.
sorry i havent been active, but i need to make a vote, and do it quick, so im sorry cel but
##vote: cel
i just wanted to make a vote in time, and he already had the most number of votes, so i panic-voted him
The main points are that the use of "need," the apology to Celever, and the later use of "panic-vote"?

New players in general often feel like they "need" to cast a vote just because it's such an integral part of this game and they feel like if they aren't voting, they aren't really playing. @Vom you questioned at some point why she wouldn't just /not vote/? I genuinely don't think it had occurred to her that not voting was a legitimate option.

The name of the game — which, remember, we consistently tell new players to get them active on D1 — is essentially "cast a vote for whoever you think is the scummiest player." bb had already told her something to this effect like five times on D1 of this game. It's hardly surprising that she felt the need to cast a vote with time running out in the Day. Yeah her reasoning was flawed ("he already had the most number of votes") but even that makes sense from a new town standpoint; she trusted the majority.

The apology to Celever is a little weird, but new town does it as much as new scum. Ephemera even apologized to scattered mind for voting him as recently as #607.

"Panic-vote," I honestly have no idea. Idk Lily's mafia history, but somebody mentioned she had played at least one game before, and she was probably spectating at least one game prior to that. (I say this because that's how most new players end up joining mafia.) I think it's reasonable to expect that she saw the term somewhere else before. Either way I don't see how using a mafia slang term is indicative of alignment. You can reckon Mega told her to use it as a defense in the scumchat, but we've already established that scumchat coaching rarely happens in PB mafia.
 
Extravagant basis? Can you make a little summary?
scattered ...
  • was cagey about his reads for most of the earlygame, and the only reason he ever gave was that he liked to keep things back to construct his own narrative and then see how it fit actual events, which is an inherently scummy thing to do
  • essentially dropped Amici as a scumread between late-D1 and mid-D3, and then when questioned about his top scumread, brought Amici up again without any support but a reference to the earlier read (which he didn't consistently hold throughout D2)
  • voted Celever in direct contradiction to a previously established belief he held about not eliminating lurkers
These are all major scumtells, and there is no reason for scattered-as-town to have done any of them.
 
I see. The Day is almost over, so there's no harm in voting now. You could probably tell what I was doing there, but even if you did I do like how you answered that. Not entirely sure what exactly would've put me on your tail, but it sure wasn't there. If you're scum, Jabber, well played.

##F: scattered mind

I'll still be paying close attention, but that's where my vote is for now, and likely until EoD.
 
Ugh, so me being busy the past two days and somehow thinking EoD was tomorrow so I'd be good.

Heck. I guess I need to skim and place my vote.
 
Okay hi. I am very unsatisifed with Vom's defense. I also strongly disagree with Jabber's rebuttal of my scattered refutes. Both incoming.

@Jadethepokemontrainer Can you please skim-read this post where I case on Vom before your vote?
 
Okay hi. I am very unsatisifed with Vom's defense. I also strongly disagree with Jabber's rebuttal of my scattered refutes. Both incoming.

@Jadethepokemontrainer Can you please skim-read this post where I case on Vom before your vote?
I'll freely admit I didn't go back to read your case on Vom in greater depth like I said I would; on second look I realized it would be a big time sink and you later unvoted Vom anyway, so I assumed Vom had responded sufficiently and I moved on. I'll go do that now as well. Can we get a summary of the main points as well?
 
A very important fact about the scattered that I think explains why the Amici case disappeared late Day 2:

scattered questions a few different people in the first 24 hours.
scattered likes Mega's case on bbn.
scattered throws support on the bbn wagon.
bbn asks scattered lots of questions about their support of the bbn wagon
scattered focuses on the bbn wagon instead of the Amici wagon

Me asking scattered many many many questions about their support of the bbn wagon and scattered having to reconfirm and reconfirm and reconfirm their support for the bbn wagon would cement the bbn wagon as a very important wagon in scattered's mind and one of the main options for Day 2. I basically put my own wagon on the top of scattered's priorities. This explains the "scattered had another case to deal with"! I literally was forcing scattered to deal with it.

He explained the Lily one significantly after that post time-wise, the Eph one only in terms of "they're chaotic," and the Vom one not at all.
Eph wagon was already being talked about it, so everyone would know what scattered means here.
Vom one is the only weird one here, but one read not being explained does not make scattered=scum.

scattered said in #180 in no uncertain terms that he "completely agreed" with being against eliminating a lurker. To vote Cel later isn't just having missed the context of the rest of the thread; it goes against his very mindset.
scattered, today, has said in no uncertain terms that he realised that the wagon was not about Cel being a lurker. It was about Cel not cooperating. Different.

Not consistently — he only asked Amici one tangentially related question after that, and did not mention either case again until D3.

Which makes complete sense for reasons above.
 
@Ephemera your reasons for townreading Vom seem to be because their scumhunting, which is just as bad as reading Jabber or scattered or you town because their scumhunting. Everyone is scumhunting.
 
@bbninjas Exhibit A checks out and is a very legitimate point. Exhibit B I'm less sure about; it's not that weird for somebody not to analyze an unvote when the new vote is generally the most relevant part of the post. Exhibit C (the hypothetical scenario) it would just take me too long to wrap my head around, and we don't have that time left in the day, but based on your tl;dr, I don't buy that bussing Mega was the only viable option for Vom-as-scum; she could very easily have just not and I don't believe anybody would really have questioned it.
 
You underestimate people too much - first the scumteam, now me - I'm not gonna let you bark up another wrong tree in MYLO.

  • Idk, I thought it was realistic I guess? Didn't see you questioning why you were his second top read.
  • Will be addressed in Exhibit B
  • Literally nothing about Mega drew any particular attention from me in D1, he seemed kind of like Jade, except I completely disagreed with something Jade said so I commented on it.
Maybe scum!Vom did, but Mega literally put me at the top of his townlist, as you pointed out. How is that distancing? It wasn't general consensus either, putting scum!Vom at the top of his list would only hurt me after his flip. Mega has no reason to say scum!Vom is the towniest player without any explanation or ever expanding on it.
Vom's defense: Mega didn't post enough to do anything interesting.
Refute: Vom talked about everyone, including other players who didn't post very much interesting posts in Day 1 (i.e. Fiery and Jade). Mega is the only exception. In fact, I'd argue that Mega did many interesting things hence the 65+ mentions by 8 other players.
Defense 2: Mega put Vom at top, this can't be distancing.
Refute: Doesn't refute Vom's distancing. Regardless, Mega didn't explain this read, so yes it is distancing.

Again, I don't think he expands on why he put you as his second towniest read, and didn't see you questioning that.

I guess I did? Mega wasn't on my radar D1, so I probably either ignored or didn't care about this point - even I don't remember. Maybe because I didn't think Mega was suspicious, but I really don't know. Remember that at this point Mega had done nothing suspicious, and without knowing his alignment beforehand I had no reason to pay close attention to his name being thrown around, like you are doing now in hindsight.

Same as before, guess I just agreed with that.
Defense: Mega wasn't on my radar.
Refute: It seems that everyone was on your radar Day 1 except for Mega. Weird. Plus, you were tunnelling and picking apart nearly every Eph post. Eph comments on Mega in a really weird way. You didn't pick apart it. You pick apart 3 other (less) weird reads that Mega makes.
Defense: bbn didn't pick apart Eph's reads, why should I?
Refute: Fallacy. Vom was in the process of picking apart Eph's reads at the time - bbn was not. This circumstances are not the same.

Of course I did. Why wouldn't I? We went over this in D1, you raised this exact same point about me and I explained how keeping one's options open rather than focusing on one elimination leads to a better decision in the end.

It definitely is - bussing Mega would have been beneficial to literally anyone in the game. In fact, it's just as beneficial for you to bus as it was to me, especially since people (myself included) said that one of bb/Mega were scum, and knowing the other flipping scum would give the surviving member massive towncred, you could've bussed each other because one of you was getting eliminated anyway.

Ok, let me just say, there is no universe in which scum - scum!Vom or otherwise - doesn't bus Mega. The closest thing to not busing Mega would have been to simply not vote, which was impossible because the consensus (started by me, btw) was that there was scum in bb/Mega, and since those were the two main wagons, there was no reason for town to not vote either of them. And, more specific to me, I couldn't have broken the tie to eliminate bb anyway, not after how I was clearly against the bb case and said on multiple occasions how I thought Mega was the better elimination.

And even if someone else broke the tie and bb got eliminated, Mega would definitely be eliminated the next Day - there are no miselim options, especially after either breaking the tie the wrong way and backpedaling hard in the process, or not voting and advocating for a non-Mega lim the next Day - now that would've screamt scum.

This is of course assuming there was a 'wrong' way to break the tie.

Right, you address not voting here. See above.

Or...you know...because I'd been pressuring him but he chose to ignore my points? This also assumes I was voting to elim. I didn't have anything even close to a case, I was annoyed scattered was ignoring me to I voted him to further pressure. And even if I was trying to get him eliminated, that would've never happened with what I had at the time - even now I don't think there's anything damning on him. As you said, most people were townreading him already, and my evidence was way too weak to sway anyone into the scattered elimination anyway, nor did I try to.

I had said before that Amici and Fiery were lim-a-lurker 2.0, and was opposed to them being eliminated based on activity. It's true I didn't like Amici's posting, as I pointed out many times, but starting a Lily wagon would've been suss as hell. Even the Amici wagon was questionable, but not terrible. Starting a lurker wagon is almost never a good option for literally anyone, not to mention two in a row, as your timeline seems to determine.

It's true I would've been happy with a scattered elim at that point, but I didn't mind the Amici wagon either as per my previous points on her so I kinda just let it happen. I didn't even vote her because (unlike a certain someone :U) I didn't want a hammer.

This is only the latest instance, but you seem to underestimate the scumteam a lot. Why's that? I think your analysis relies on the assumption that PokéBeach scumteams need to get good. We know discrediting the whole scumteam only benefits one side...
Vom agrees that mislynch on bbn would be dumb (NAI conclusion).
Defense: Vom wanted to eliminate Mega more than bbn, bbn was off the table from the get go.
Refute: WIFOMy, if Vom voted me after their early Day 2 posts, I wouldn't be suprised. But Vom voted me and committed to my wagon long after the scattered wagon showed to have no steam, so I'm even less surprised if scum!Vom does this. As Vom agrees, voting bbn would never work.
Defense: I'm discrediting other cases based on me underestimating the scumteam.
Refute: No. I think Eph is talking about ways of voting that do not cross scumteam's minds. Scumteams do care about their votes, but not in the way Eph mentioned. This bus-point on you is about how much I think scum!Vom would think ahead into Day 3/4/5 and whether scum!Vom would want to be on the wrong wagon = I am giving scumteam lots of credit.
 
@bbninjas Exhibit A checks out and is a very legitimate point. Exhibit B I'm less sure about; it's not that weird for somebody not to analyze an unvote when the new vote is generally the most relevant part of the post. Exhibit C (the hypothetical scenario) it would just take me too long to wrap my head around, and we don't have that time left in the day, but based on your tl;dr, I don't buy that bussing Mega was the only viable option for Vom-as-scum; she could very easily have just not and I don't believe anybody would really have questioned it.
Ultimately I'm just not convinced that Vom-as-scum would have bussed Mega there, and so I still assign her enough towncred that Exhibit A doesn't really stack up to it enough to convict her. I know you try to explain that away in Exhibit C, but there just is not time enough left in the Day for me to try and parse the whole extent of that part of the post.
 
@bbninjas so if you had to pick between Jabber and scattered, who would it be?
Jabber because Fiery should not have said "panic-voting" (a mafia specific term) but "voted because I was panicing" (a non mafia term).

scattered I am convinced is town now.

I think Vom is much much much better because their is multiple scumtells (is it a coincidence that Vom ignored the only scum player Mega for an entire day? especially when Mega is the only player they ignored?) and as Vom has agreed with, scum!Vom had to bus scum!Mega in this scenario, so it's difficult to give Vom as much towncred as people want.
 
You underestimate people too much - first the scumteam, now me - I'm not gonna let you bark up another wrong tree in MYLO.
What? Is Vom part of the scumteam, or is she underestimating it? You can't have it both ways.

Reading the rest of the post now.
 
Well, there's certainly not enough time to answer all of that, but what I can say real quick is that you misunderstood me on the middle part - it's not that you didn't question Ephemera, you dind't question Mega - you were his towniest read after me.
 
Ultimately I'm just not convinced that Vom-as-scum would have bussed Mega there, and so I still assign her enough towncred that Exhibit A doesn't really stack up to it enough to convict her. I know you try to explain that away in Exhibit C, but there just is not time enough left in the Day for me to try and parse the whole extent of that part of the post.
How are you not convinced?

Vom has agreed that voting bbn as scum would never work.

I have explained that voting bbn was scum would cause a Mega lynch next, and Vom (or maybe scattered) would be next because they "saved" Mega.
 
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