Finished Mafia LXI: Forest Fire: Game Over!

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NinjaPenguin

Always standing out from the crowd.
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@Jabberwock has subbed in for Fiery_Lugia. Jabber, please like this post to confirm your role.

Please do not discuss substitutions, though you may of course note the fact that a player was subbed out.
 

Jabberwock

#Jovimohnaeliackvid
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Alright so I've read through the thread. Ngl I'd forgotten how long it takes to do a catch-up read-through this far in. I went back and skimmed up through a little ways into Day 2 after seeing Mega's flip. Here's what I got.

Ik the FoS is already here, but scumread on Amici. These are her last three posts that mention Mega (I searched); the first two are hard town reads without a rationale, and the third equivocates to a null read, while admitting there was never any rationale for an 85% town read (!!!) to begin with.

It's insanely surface level and it makes me want to scream, its forced as hell and seems ripped out of a pressured readlist I would make as W. I could rip into it further but i need energy to get on dat and i dont have it rn

This is correct. I have many thoughts right now, but one thing im very hung up on is that Ephe is essentially isolated in thread. Thats my main hang up with their slot, if they were scum odds are by now their scum partner would have at least passively come to their aid but I see nothing of the sort.

Right now GTH I would say
Mega has 85/15 odds in favor of town
BB has 70/30 odds in favor of town
Vom Scattered are both >rand town
Lily is weird, none of their posts have stuck in my head. Need to comb through them.
Cel's odds are the odds of rolling scum, lurking with no actual AI posts
Ephe is >rand scum due to their posting, though its very odd that nobody is even attempting to come to their aid. Once again, thats my main hang up with that slot. If Ephe is scum Cel is basically the only realistic partner (though this may include Lily once im done ISOing them)
I just back read the thread and I now see why,

none of them have any actual game substance and is just fluff.
rn my PoE contains
Cel/Ephe/Lily

GTH town core is
Me/BB/Mega
From my backread of day 1 with cel town in mind
FL's vote seems rather oppurnistic
Mega is no longer in my town core (was mainly basing this off of cel/mega scum team was a gut shot I was willing to go with)
BB is net neutral, some things looks a tad worse but a lot of things seem better. Still in my personal town core
Ephe looks terribad. Since Cel=Town is a thing im willing to bet Ephe is scum
In fact
##MURDERIZE:Ephe
Jade on the back read sorta just oozies towniness, A lot of the stuff they've said I dont think comes from a scum POV
SM is forgettable but not horrible.
Vom is eh, not to high on them.
Town Core
Me/BB/Jade
PoE
Ephe/SM/Vom/Mega

I would personally murderize in this order (assuming Ephe flips scum)
Ephe>Mega>SM>Vom

Ephemera's early posts scream scum and I'm genuinely bewildered why nobody's talking about them. They didn't make a single read on anybody who hadn't read them first, and even then it was just a gut feeling based on the tone of the other person's read.

@Ephemera what are your thoughts on scattered mind? He has said more things this game than the D1 vote you're referencing. Specifically I'd like to know what you think about Vom's three quotes in post #404; either discredit them as NAI or say something about how they affect your read.

@bbninjas why did you say you'd be okay with a hammer in post #420? There's plenty more to discuss today.

(I want to be able to link to specific posts in this thread but my computer's not letting me do that; bear with me on the post numbers Dx)
 

Ephemera

just a little longer...
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Is there a reason why we can't discuss substitutions? >.>

this is kinda standard MU practice – we can talk about the fact that there's a sub, like "now that Jabber looks to be more active, maybe now we can get a more informed read on that slot" is legal. What is pretty much not allowed is speculating on why the substitution happened – getting anything alignment-indicative from a substitution is a no-no. I'll go into more detail on that after the game i guess, or NP might explain further as well.

Just saying "there was a sub" is fine though, and evaluating the Jabber/Lily slot from both players is fine as well. Why the sub happened? Off-limits.
 

Ephemera

just a little longer...
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Alright so I've read through the thread. Ngl I'd forgotten how long it takes to do a catch-up read-through this far in. I went back and skimmed up through a little ways into Day 2 after seeing Mega's flip. Here's what I got.

Ik the FoS is already here, but scumread on Amici. These are her last three posts that mention Mega (I searched); the first two are hard town reads without a rationale, and the third equivocates to a null read, while admitting there was never any rationale for an 85% town read (!!!) to begin with.

Ephemera's early posts scream scum and I'm genuinely bewildered why nobody's talking about them. They didn't make a single read on anybody who hadn't read them first, and even then it was just a gut feeling based on the tone of the other person's read.

@Ephemera what are your thoughts on scattered mind? He has said more things this game than the D1 vote you're referencing. Specifically I'd like to know what you think about Vom's three quotes in post #404; either discredit them as NAI or say something about how they affect your read.

@bbninjas why did you say you'd be okay with a hammer in post #420? There's plenty more to discuss today.

(I want to be able to link to specific posts in this thread but my computer's not letting me do that; bear with me on the post numbers Dx)

re: scattered. I'm working on reassessing that slot, but right now I think amici's much more likely to be a hit than scattered.

Really like your entry, although the individual solving thing is pretty darn easy for scum to fake now that mega's dead :U

My early reads were terrible lol. Completely understand why you think they scream scum, but they accomplished what I set out to do – spark discussion – so i guess that's a small win.
 

bbninjas

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Ephemera's early posts scream scum and I'm genuinely bewildered why nobody's talking about them. They didn't make a single read on anybody who hadn't read them first, and even then it was just a gut feeling based on the tone of the other person's read.
We spent most of Day 1 talking about them actually, though for some reason they didn't stick (town eh?). This post explains why I dropped my case on Eph and why I read them as town now.

@bbninjas why did you say you'd be okay with a hammer in post #420? There's plenty more to discuss today.
I don't think there's plenty to discuss tbh, Amici is scum by POE.

I'm very confident (80%) that Amici is the scumbuddy, and without Amici actually responding to the points on them, I don't see my mind changing any time soon. I just want the flip: we either win, or I need to do a complete reassess after the flip.

Vom / Jade / Eph are town for reasons previously mentioned.

I think there's enough information on scattered to make a read; I feel his case is mostly based on circumstance (buddying with Mega) or WIFOM (did scattered genuinely think my elimination was best?), and scattered can't exactly say much that would change people's minds on either of those things. I personally don't see a Mega and scattered buddy (it's too obvious, and the reliance Mega had on scattered screams town-scum buddy). I'm content reading based off his posts on Day 2 anyway (seems to be a townie convinced of a scumread, as those was no backing down whatsoever).

Fiery was MIA of course. Now that you've subbed in, we can always get your take, but I find sub-in entries NAI as it's all based on hindsight (scum can easily fake hindsight).

My early reads were terrible lol. Completely understand why you think they scream scum, but they accomplished what I set out to do – spark discussion – so i guess that's a small win.
*Ahem*

I don't think your early "reads" sparked very much discussion, outside of "Eph what on earth are you doing", in which case there was a lot of that. But I imagine "Eph is scum" discussion isn't what you mean here.
 

bbninjas

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Just to resurface it; this is why I'm convinced Amici is scum and is Mega's scumbuddy.

From my backread of day 1 with cel town in mind
FL's vote seems rather oppurnistic
Mega is no longer in my town core (was mainly basing this off of cel/mega scum team was a gut shot I was willing to go with)
BB is net neutral, some things looks a tad worse but a lot of things seem better. Still in my personal town core
Ephe looks terribad. Since Cel=Town is a thing im willing to bet Ephe is scum
In fact
##MURDERIZE:Ephe
Jade on the back read sorta just oozies towniness, A lot of the stuff they've said I dont think comes from a scum POV
SM is forgettable but not horrible.
Vom is eh, not to high on them.
Town Core
Me/BB/Jade
PoE
Ephe/SM/Vom/Mega

I would personally murderize in this order (assuming Ephe flips scum)
Ephe>Mega>SM>Vom
I don't like this post because it's very shallow. Amici hasn't engaged with any of the points that might suggest Ephemera is town: that Eph switched over to a bbn vote despite it putting Ephemera into a tie with the Celever wagon. It would be much easier and safer for scum!Eph to park their vote on Cel. Amici's post also doesn't engage with the point that Eph didn't care about getting lynched (see spoiler), which is townie. This is stranger because a person in Amici's towncore (me) raised this points and did a complete 180 on Eph, which should have caught town!Amici's attention.

Also, I am pretty confident that Eph is town because they didn't care about being lynched. They were not frantically trying to get people to vote for Celever. They weren't particularly frustrated by all the pressure on them, which scum tend to feel when they feel they are being unfairly tunnelled. They seemed resigned to the possibility of being tree-stumped. In fact, Eph actually seemed more content and level-headed then scum. The fact that Eph managed to actually put a second case on me that could potentially compete against the Celever wagon and absorb some of the votes, which would risk Eph getting lynched! Instead, I see town motivation here: putting a second case creates a path forward for Day 2. This means Eph expected to stick around even if they get lynched.

Amici has also isolated Eph's vote without considering context, which one would expect if Amici was reading back. The "since Eph pushed Celever and Celever=town, Eph is scum" argument is rather linear. It's quite ironic because Amici themself voted for Celever, and should be in the limelight more because they haven't been particularly transparent about their reads.

Also notice how Amici puts Mega in their scumreads now that Mega has a case on them, but doesn't put pressure on them or make any comment on the case itself. If Mega is scum, I'm pretty sure Amici is bussing.

ReadTowncore: Eph x Vom x Jade
Neutral: scattered, Fiery
Scumcore: Mega x Amici.
 

Jabberwock

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re: scattered. I'm working on reassessing that slot, but right now I think amici's much more likely to be a hit than scattered.
I'm not asking for a full ISO; your reactions to the posts Vom quoted would be a good place to start. Ik IRL stuff can get in the way of big analysis in this game, but you gotta come up with more than a D1 vote to justify townreading somebody out of PoE on D3.

Really like your entry, although the individual solving thing is pretty darn easy for scum to fake now that mega's dead :U
Not sure what you mean by this.

My early reads were terrible lol. Completely understand why you think they scream scum, but they accomplished what I set out to do – spark discussion – so i guess that's a small win.
Okay, ig there's not much else to say here. bb made a case on you back in post #266, and you never really satisfactorily rebutted it. (Post #271 doesn't count; you said "I've made quite a few [non-gut feeling] points throughout the game," and then proceeded to give a list of gut feelings.) I have no idea why everyone seems to have forgotten those posts.

We spent most of Day 1 talking about them actually, though for some reason they didn't stick (town eh?). This post explains why I dropped my case on Eph and why I read them as town now.
Cheers bb, I actually did miss the bulk of this post in my read-through. I see your train of thought now, but I think it's a little contrived. This is what it reads like:
  • You cite Eph seeming discouraged about the possibility of being eliminated as a scumtell
  • You devise a plan to catch (what you hope will be) a candid reaction to confirm your suspicions
  • You never actually get around to catching that reaction before EoD
And yet you still decide that they're not too fussed about being eliminated? Either you've retconned the first point or there's something else I'm missing.

And honestly, the whole "catch the reaction" plan feels kinda WIFOMy to begin with. They could pretty easily be scum acting all "Of course I'm okay with being eliminated! Why wouldn't be, if I'm a tree? :D", especially once you've reminded them of how eliminations work for trees. I guess it's potentially a point in their favor if you reckon they're too new to the game to be that many steps into WIFOM, but I'm not sure I reckon the same, and it definitely doesn't stack up to negate the OMGUSing and tone-reading as scumtells.

I don't think there's plenty to discuss tbh, Amici is scum by POE.
You can't do a PoE if you have neutral reads Dx

I'm very confident (80%) that Amici is the scumbuddy, and without Amici actually responding to the points on them, I don't see my mind changing any time soon. I just want the flip: we either win, or I need to do a complete reassess after the flip.
Amici's a strong bet, and I agree it's annoying that we won't get any responses out of her before she's subbed out, but I can't figure out why you wouldn't want as much information as possible going into the eventuality of her flipping town. 80% confidence is no excuse to tunnel one player and ignore everybody else.

I think there's enough information on scattered to make a read; I feel his case is mostly based on circumstance (buddying with Mega) or WIFOM (did scattered genuinely think my elimination was best?), and scattered can't exactly say much that would change people's minds on either of those things. I personally don't see a Mega and scattered buddy (it's too obvious, and the reliance Mega had on scattered screams town-scum buddy). I'm content reading based off his posts on Day 2 anyway (seems to be a townie convinced of a scumread, as those was no backing down whatsoever).
I'm not sure about there not being enough information on scattered; even putting aside buddying and the strength of his scumreads (which, ironically, is something you've put Eph under fire for yourself earlier this game), there's at least one significant thing I wanna look into. But I want Eph's thoughts on him first. Eph do that asap.
 

Ephemera

just a little longer...
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Gonna get on a scattered reread soon – PB being down didn't help with the reeval let me tell you that :p

Vom/Jade/bb are locktown, so will have to decide between scattered/amici/jabber.

what i meant by the individual solving thing being easy to fake as scum: jabber looks like he's solving it by himself, and not being caught up by a scumbuddy or have any scum agenda. Unfortunately, this can't be treated as too much of a towntell since if Jabber were scum, he'd be solving by himself anyhow, since the other scum member was eliminated before jabber subbed in.
 

bbninjas

Ready or Not!
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Cheers bb, I actually did miss the bulk of this post in my read-through. I see your train of thought now, but I think it's a little contrived. This is what it reads like:
  • You cite Eph seeming discouraged about the possibility of being eliminated as a scumtell
  • You devise a plan to catch (what you hope will be) a candid reaction to confirm your suspicions
  • You never actually get around to catching that reaction before EoD
And yet you still decide that they're not too fussed about being eliminated? Either you've retconned the first point or there's something else I'm missing.

And honestly, the whole "catch the reaction" plan feels kinda WIFOMy to begin with. They could pretty easily be scum acting all "Of course I'm okay with being eliminated! Why wouldn't be, if I'm a tree? :D", especially once you've reminded them of how eliminations work for trees. I guess it's potentially a point in their favor if you reckon they're too new to the game to be that many steps into WIFOM, but I'm not sure I reckon the same, and it definitely doesn't stack up to negate the OMGUSing and tone-reading as scumtells.
Eph was scummy for the reasons you've already mentioned.
My own case on Eph was that they were intentionally buddying with those reading Eph as town and pushing for those who read Eph as scum as part of some sophisticated scumplan. However, it didn't seem entirely plausible that Eph would be intentionally doing all of these things; it seemed NAI. Hence I wanted something more.

I do devise a plan to catch a candid reaction, and while it's WIFOM-y, it would either confirm my suspicions on Eph (that they're scum) or be contrary (that they're not), which I'd pretty happy with Day 1. Now, I didn't catch the reaction before EoD, but the reaction was still there and so I use it post Day 2.

What's interesting is that Eph doesn't just "say" that they're okay about eliminated. They actions suggest they're okay with being eliminated. They put forward a case on me last-minute, which would compete against the Cel case and risk getting Eph themself lynched. It seems that Eph was starting a case with the intention of pursuing it in Day 2. Do I think scum!Eph would start a case and fake an intention to follow it through in the next day, and top of all the facades that scum!Eph would be putting up her? I don't think so.

I have to head, but on your other points Jabber, I'm content with my reads based on posts from the past few days, I doubt that there's much that can change them. If Amici flips town, then I'd obviously have to rethink everything, but I'm not going to rethink everything when Amici will probably flip scum.
 

Jabberwock

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Eph was scummy for the reasons you've already mentioned.
My own case on Eph was that they were intentionally buddying with those reading Eph as town and pushing for those who read Eph as scum as part of some sophisticated scumplan. However, it didn't seem entirely plausible that Eph would be intentionally doing all of these things; it seemed NAI. Hence I wanted something more.

I do devise a plan to catch a candid reaction, and while it's WIFOM-y, it would either confirm my suspicions on Eph (that they're scum) or be contrary (that they're not), which I'd pretty happy with Day 1. Now, I didn't catch the reaction before EoD, but the reaction was still there and so I use it post Day 2.

What's interesting is that Eph doesn't just "say" that they're okay about eliminated. They actions suggest they're okay with being eliminated. They put forward a case on me last-minute, which would compete against the Cel case and risk getting Eph themself lynched. It seems that Eph was starting a case with the intention of pursuing it in Day 2. Do I think scum!Eph would start a case and fake an intention to follow it through in the next day, and top of all the facades that scum!Eph would be putting up her? I don't think so.

I have to head, but on your other points Jabber, I'm content with my reads based on posts from the past few days, I doubt that there's much that can change them. If Amici flips town, then I'd obviously have to rethink everything, but I'm not going to rethink everything when Amici will probably flip scum.
That's fair; we can come back to it if there's a tomorrow, and to some extent the same goes for the scattered stuff. I agree there's every likelihood this can just be wrapped up with a hammer.

Three more things I want to know before EoD, just in case there is a tomorrow, and then we can talk about hammering:

@Ephemera what's your level of confidence that Amici is scum?

@Jadethepokemontrainer what's your level of confidence that Amici is scum?

@scattered mind who's your top scumread and why?
 

JadeGemTM

In terms of water, we have water
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##VOTE: Amici Well if my top scumread has no desire to play this game now they’re in the spotlight, then might as well take the elim. I’d be happy with a hammer here, it doesn’t look like this day will go anywhere.
I agree that Amici is the best option for the day, but I don't really get the hammer. We can still discuss, even if she is scum. With the chance that she isn't, we could at least have more of an idea of how to go into the next day with discussion today no? Some discussion seems better than no discussion and just hammering, also Jabber is here now.

o/ all


Reading up now \o/

Speaking of Jabber. Hi Jabber!

re: scattered. I'm working on reassessing that slot, but right now I think amici's much more likely to be a hit than scattered.
Mhm agree with this. While looking into Scattered is obviously not bad, we can't just completely tunnel the one person, I think Amici is still the best way to go today.
 

bbninjas

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I agree that Amici is the best option for the day, but I don't really get the hammer. We can still discuss, even if she is scum. With the chance that she isn't, we could at least have more of an idea of how to go into the next day with discussion today no? Some discussion seems better than no discussion and just hammering, also Jabber is here now.
And what might we discuss? You yourself haven't provided any new points of discussion in your posts above.

Anyhow, hammering itself isn't too important, I'd just be happy with one. Currently Jabber's orientating himself and his reads, so happy to let him do that.
 

JadeGemTM

In terms of water, we have water
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And what might we discuss? You yourself haven't provided any new points of discussion in your posts above.

Anyhow, hammering itself isn't too important, I'd just be happy with one. Currently Jabber's orientating himself and his reads, so happy to let him do that.
Course of action if Amici isn't scum? Though honestly I guess we just figure that out when we come to it.

Aha, yeah okay fair, and I'm not really sure what there is to say or provide right now, I guess that's your point.

Alright, yeah I get that then. Right, part of what I was saying is that Jabber is here now, so keeping the day going may be in our best interest so that he can get oriented, as you said.
 

Scattered mind

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Just a reminder that I was the first to read Amici as scum or at least the first to vote her. You can find our talk to each other on page 7 I believe.


Major scumread on amici which is growing the more she keeps being silent.
Pretty big town read on vom
Lily is null but if she keeps behaving new with I’m new posts it will become suspicious.
Ephemera gives too much I am scum signals. But the chaotic nature is confusing. It’s a real gamble.

Obviously my vote goes to Amici. Unless I find something on Jade as I'm about to semi ISO their posts. (because the ISO in this site is hell)
Objectively looking at the game I understand that Amici and myself are the best candidate for elimination so I need you to ask me questions because I want to prove why I'm not scum.

Aside from that I am going to lock down my reads about my other suspect Jade.
 

Scattered mind

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So yeah Jade is a probable town - was the first to vote Mega and pushed his elimination. Also my early read on them as scum came out of his first posts which seems to be too careful but that is much weaker point now.
 

Ephemera

just a little longer...
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@NP: how long is left in the day?

I apologize for not enough content today so far, working on that. I've been busy, PB was down while I had time, internet issues, etc etc...

...but all those are excuses. I'm gonna jump right back into the game, with my usual strategy: spew my thoughts into the thread and hope something makes sense!

@everyone: if amici flips town, who is most likely scum behind that?

@Jabberwock my level of confidence on Amici scum? lemme try and brain my way to an actual figure.

So, I'm fairly sure Vom/Jade are locktown. Neither of them needed to jump onto the mega wagon when there was a perfectly good bb wagon, and bussing could have been saved for D3.

bb is very town, although a tinfoil world exists where pressure mounts on scum!bb and the mega/bb scumteam formulate a plan to bus each other, spewing the non-eliminated one town. I think that's unlikely though – if bb were scum, he probably doesn't reverse his read on me and pushes for an elimination on me D2, which honestly had a pretty good chance of success. Again, in this case bussing could be saved for D3.

that leaves scattered/jabber/amici.

I still think scattered is town. There have been a few questionable things in his ISO iirc – need to go back and check, but tbh i'm not the greatest at making myself do that thoroughly – such as him saying the PoE is him/amici, when jabber hasn't gotten out of there yet, the vote on cel for not devoting time, etc etc, but I honestly think those actions come from town.

the vote on cel: choosing a main wagon over a throwaway one D1. It's easy to just leave town to the v/v wagons and not get suspicion on you for eliminating a townie. Can be faked by scum I guess but >rand town.

the statement that PoE is pretty much amici/him: why would scum narrow down the PoE when they're alone? in scum!scattered's world, jabber is a prime target for a miselim today or tomorrow, and I doubt scattered excludes jabber from a PoE list, even unconsciously, as scum, since he'd need all the progression and suspicion he could get on jabber.

i can work a little more on scattered later but for the most part that's what stood out to me from scattered.

next: your slot, jabber. I thought Lily was newbie town, although given her... 4? posts there's not much to go off of. You haven't made yourself a clear townie yet – understandable, subbing in gives you a difficult job of catching up, showing yourself as town with 2 days behind everyone else, and forming reads (if you're town lol) – so I can't really evaluate your slot much.

So, for amici: i personally expected a bit more? Her ISO was lacking, felt like activelurking. She was in the thread but I don't really recall much of what she said – as opposed to cel, for example, who was not in thread but contributed only a little less than amici D1 – and essentially felt like someone standing back and watching town chaos.

I can't be 100% sure of this vote, but amici/jabber/scattered PoE is pretty sound, and among them amici is the most sus.

Thus my confidence on the amici vote: moderate to high, maybe about 60-70%
still gotta plan for the possibility that she doesn't flip scum.
 
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