Discussion Greedy Dice

Discussion in 'PTCG Competitive Play' started by 21times, Aug 1, 2016.

  1. 21times Aspiring Trainer
    21times

    Member

    OK so as steam siege is rapidly approaching, I just wanted to give you all a rundown of the math behind the new quizzical card Greedy Die. I think most of us have had the initial reaction of “Wow! This is really cool!” Followed about a second later with, “Oh wait no it’s not.” So I wanted to figure out exactly what is the probability of getting an extra prize card if you run 4 of these.


    Now, maybe someone out there who’s better at math than me can point out where I’m wrong, but I’m pretty sure my logic’s fairly solid here.


    Given: 4 copies of Greedy Die, no Town Map, all 6 prize cards in play


    If you’re running 4 copies of Greedy Die, you have about a 1 in 3 chance of getting Greedy Die into your prize cards

    Non Greedy Die Cards Total cards available to be drawn Chance of NOT drawing Greedy Die

    56 60 93.33%

    55 59 93.22%

    54 58 93.10%

    53 57 92.98%

    52 56 92.86%

    51 55 92.73%

    Total chance of not getting Greedy Die 64.85%


    So you have about a 35.15% chance of getting Greedy Die as one of your prize cards. I think that math and logic is sound (1 minus the product of those six chances of not pulling Greedy Die).


    Here’s where it gets fuzzy.


    Assuming you’re not running Town Map, if you knock out a non-EX Pokemon, you then have a 1 in 6 chance of pulling the Greedy Die. So you probably won’t pull it as one of your first couple of prize cards. I would guess that in most of the games we play, we don’t take all 6 prize cards. Either we lose or the opponent concedes early, but either way, even if Greedy Die is in your prize cards, there’s a pretty good chance you won’t even get the opportunity to pull it.


    And all of that is before the coin flip.


    So let’s say that you run 4 copies of Greedy Die, and (improbable as it may be) the first prize card you take just happens to be Greedy Die. In that unlikely case, you have about at 17.57% chance of taking an extra prize card.


    So in a best case scenario, about once in every six games, if you’re running 4 copies of Greedy Die, you’ll get an extra prize card out of it.


    But that’s best case scenario: I’m figuring that in reality, it’ll be more like 1 in 8 or 1 in 10.


    That’s my take on Greedy Die. Like I said, those of you who are better at probability than I am, please feel free to poke holes in my analysis here, but I think my numbers are pretty close.
     


  2. Otaku The wise fool?
    Otaku

    Member

    I didn't carefully recalculate everything and probability isn't my strong suit. I also am less worried about Greedy Dice being your first Prize than you are, but yeah it can go to waste if you don't take it before you'd win anyway.

    I think the real issue is this card even being made. There are so many drawbacks that the designers' felt the need to include, it tells you that the effect is something that should probably just not exist at all. It is a totally dead card if it doesn't end up in your Prizes. It is a dead card if it somehow gets stuck face up in your Prizes. It is a "tails fails" effect. On the other hand when it works, your get rewarded for coming up with a deck that had extra deck slots and getting a happy coin flip. In a format where we already have Pokémon worth two Prizes when KO'd (1/3 the starting Prize total). If Greedy Dice shows up when you KO'd a Pokémon-EX and works, then you're at half the total Prize count for one KO and a lot of luck. If you've got something like Lugia-EX [Plasma] it is two-thirds the Prize total.

    Even seeing those numbers, I've got to admit this is tempting for Expanded play. The psychological side of the game matters in addition to the math; what does it do to a player in the top cut when he or she runs into such a deck, a deck that might have only a 1-6 chance of cashing in even after hobbling itself with four cards that are dead draws after the game begins, but 1-in-6 chances of being robbed ain't happy. >.>
     
  3. 21times Aspiring Trainer
    21times

    Member

    Hadn't even thought about that. Yeah, what was that discussion when they were designing this? It does seem that you're right, probably half the room was totally against it, half the room totally for it, so they created it but made the probability of it occurring very small.

    But yes the psychological impact ... if you lose an EX you lose half your prize cards ... if Umbreon EX were to take out a Mega, it'd be 5!
     
  4. PMJ happy thoughts
    PMJ

    Articles Staff Activities Staff Badges Staff Elite Member Advanced Member Member

    Good thing no one who wants to actually win will ever use this card.
     
    BraviaryBoi likes this.
  5. Otaku The wise fool?
    Otaku

    Member

    Never say never. ;)

    Just to give you an idea how close we are to Greedy Dice not being a joke:

    1) General TCG "rule" is not to trade "skill" for "luck"; you don't rely on something like a coin flip when you can manage it with the right deck build and proper play. That doesn't apply to everyone though; player's skilled enough to still handle a deck but not skilled enough to pilot it to the top cut aren't really losing anything taking a chance with a luck-based deck. Since this sounds like hyperbole, let me assure you it was a thing in some Yu-Gi-Oh tournaments.

    2) We just need 1-in-6 odds to be the best "win more" chance to be better than what four other cards in the deck grant. May be a pipe dream now, but in some formats, that was better than most four pieces of tech, or four cards worth of metagaming or structure changes.

    3) Imagine Alph Lithograph (HS: Triumphant FOUR) are Rotom (HS: Undaunted 20/90) only six or seven years old; even fewer years from being part of Expanded play. Swampert (XY: Primal Clash 36/160) is recent enough it will survive rotation. In a hypothetical scenario where these three (or equivalents) were legal together, we've got a Greedy Dice deck with the potential to be competitive. If I just stick with the propensity for TCG R&D to bring back cards that were relatively safe in their day but are broken now, then I could just use Oracle instead. Obviously this isn't exactly impending doom; still a coin flip to make Greedy Dice work, but it is at least within telescope range. ;)
     
    Last edited: Aug 1, 2016
  6. crystal_pidgeot Bird Trainer *Vaporeon on PokeGym*
    crystal_pidgeot

    Member

    @Otaku, I'm waiting for the day a Umbreon EX KOs a mega and can get all 6 prize cards because of this card.
     
    BraviaryBoi, Donutnut1, ambo and 2 others like this.
  7. Asensur Aspiring Trainer
    Asensur

    Member

    This is the kind of card that has more effect existing in the format than playing it. Clearly designed for players to think twice about prize trading.

    I would only use it when:
    A) I use town map
    B) I have cards that discard cards in hand for this to not being an entirely "dead" draw.
    C) I have space in my deck without punishing my strategy.

    This could take some of my tech slots if I don't know the meta (which I currently don't)
     
  8. 丅ᗴᗰᑭᗴᔕ丅 ✧*。٩(ˊᗜˋ*)و✧*。
    丅ᗴᗰᑭᗴᔕ丅

    Member

    Correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm pretty sure Greedy Dice has to be face down to use its effect. If you use Town Map to flip it over, then it won't be face down and therefore you can't use its effect.
     
    PikaMasterJesi, Donutnut1 and Otaku like this.
  9. Asensur Aspiring Trainer
    Asensur

    Member

    Missed that part, apologies.

    Forget about A.

    Better yet, forget about Greedy Dice ^_^!
     
    Otaku likes this.
  10. Otaku The wise fool?
    Otaku

    Member

    If you forget about it, it could be dangerous. ;)

    This is why i don't like such cards floating around the card pool. Someone doesn't need to have an optimal or even a particularly good deck to take you out of a tournament. Not happy if you lose because someone actually gets this to work when the Prize count matters. True of a lot of lucky moments, but this one didn't have to exist.
     
  11. 21times Aspiring Trainer
    21times

    Member

    Ah now I get what you're saying Otaku. Sorry it just dawned on me. You're averse to the randomness the designers inject into the game. Basically, if two players are playing each other 10 times with comparable decks, the better player will win the majority of those games - except for elements like Greedy Dice which might cause for a distorted result if the worse player simply gets lucky.

    I get it and I totally agree. I'll never look at trick coin the same again.
     
  12. crystal_pidgeot Bird Trainer *Vaporeon on PokeGym*
    crystal_pidgeot

    Member

    I have to agree. Many card games have cards like this that can be really in the right deck even if it has no use in the current format. It could become good. Look at Garbodor now and how it interact with every other pokemon with an Ability. An example from long ago would be Pokemon Reversal and how its been in formats for a very long time but no player looked at it until the card became useful, promoting the design of Pokemon Catcher before the nerf. Such card like this, i.e. cards that affect the win condition of the game should be handled with care because no one likes losing to a coin flip. This was the issue with Fainting Spell Gengar.
     
  13. Jexulus jAaM
    Jexulus

    Member

    If there were good Pokemon who benefitted from discarding Item cards, Greedy Dice would be a great fit if there's room. Even if it doesn't end up in the Prize cards, it's a free discard.
     
  14. PineDog Random TCG Trainer
    PineDog

    Member

    Someone at my league (I forgot his name, so shout out to him,) being an item which allows you to select a card from your Prize Cards, shuffle it into your deck, and then replace that with a card from your hand face-down. I think to balance it out, instead of shuffling it into your deck, you would discard the card you select from your Prize Cards, and have the wording "Select 1 of your Face-Down Prize Cards, and discard it...", hence Face-Down Prize Cards, you wouldn't be able to use Town Map to select what cards would be useless, and discard them, putting in a card that's unnecessary and put that in your prizes, essentially allowing you to get rid of two dead cards. I don't know, but for me, this seems like one of the only ways to make Greedy Dice even a little bit viable.
     
  15. poke4trade Raising Ash
    poke4trade

    Member


    Yes. I think that is what I, @Otaku and @crystal_pidgeot have in common when comes to the structure and design of PTCG.

    I don't like greedy die either. If they expanded the use of the card in the next set, I would expect them to develop a hard counter for the card. I sort of wish there was a hard counter already, like you play a supporter and both play players have to play with prize cards facing up.

    The most irritating concept about this game is that you can loose without any Pokemon interaction. Virbank City/Hypontoxic laser is an attest to that tacit. I've seen to many Pokemon fall to that combination on first turn wins.

    The game is called Pokemon, not Trainer Submission.

    I like when corporate Pokemon concentrate on making the game about Pokemon versus trainers because it fits their trademark name -- Pokemon. Cards I think are a complete attest to creativeness is unown and the new Kefkli. I think those type of cards make the game about Pokemon.

    Trainer cards are the cards that make money in the aftermarket. VS Seeker, Battle Compressor, Max Elixir and others like them really drive the aftermarket sales. Pokemon are just hit and miss - one day their good, next day nobody wants to play them. Save for Yveltal and a couple of others, rarely is there any actual card in Pokemon that is as steady as a trainer card in actual play. I think that is a bit backwards. Pokemon should have a steady existence in their life span in any format. There a ultra rare pokemon that will never see any sort of life span. I don't like that kind of concept.

    Unfortunately, what I'm talking about is a philosophy change in the company. I can attest that philosophy changes in companies are the absolute hardest changes to make because any company that has been doing something for twenty years will present their experience as the right course of action. Change is a challenge.

    Clarification: I'm not saying cut the trainers out. What I'm saying is to make the game about Pokemon. Because why not, it's Pokemon. Greedy die does not make the game about Pokemon. Instead, it makes the game about trainers.
     
    Last edited: Aug 4, 2016
  16. Otaku The wise fool?
    Otaku

    Member

    Since it pertains to why I've been so hard on Greedy Dice existing (as hopefully it is as weak as we think it is), I'll just mention that TCGs have an inherent amount of "luck", or as I like to call it "variance". Thanks to TCGs being about players building their own decks with whatever cards they can obtain (legal to the format, of course), and drawing from sufficiently randomized (shuffled) decks, games can be fun an ever changing. Players of disparate skill level can still have a fun, relatively even match up against each other... which is not good in a tournament, but great for casual play!

    So the variance needs to be something that tournament play can mitigate. Also, why does a card named Greedy Dice not use dice? I don't want to delve into Create-a-Card territory so I won't detail it, but not only would it be more on theme, but the card could be better balanced so that instead of "dead Prize" versus "Take an extra Prize!" we could have gotten a few added options in between. That might sound odd as it would increase the variance, but if they are going to create such a card in the first place... ;)
     
  17. Arneboy11 A Mega Absol Trainer!
    Arneboy11

    Advanced Member Member

    I'm testing out online with this card, but for some reason, the game doesn't let me flip a coin whenever I get it from my prizes... (already happened 3 times today, in about 8 games, playing 3 copies in my deck)
    A bug? Or does the card work in your games online?
     
  18. 21times Aspiring Trainer
    21times

    Member

    AWESOME AWESOME AWESOME post by Otaku on Greedy Dice:

    http://www.pojo.com/cotd/2016/Aug/30.shtml

    Amazing how you put Swampert, Rotom, and Alph Lithograph together. Absolutely eye opening and changes how I think about the game.
     
  19. MarshalBry Shaym' on you
    MarshalBry

    Member

    So as I've seen a few different numbers people have calculated and wanted to give it a go for myself in an actual deck to try and get some physical results. I wanted a sample size of 50-100 but eventually settled on 25 because it was very timetaking (I could do more if I wanted, but with proper shuffling added in it ends up a lot more draining than you would think and I feel like the numbers are definitive enough).

    The deck list was a modification of my M Audino deck and ran 11 basics, with only item cards being substituted (not changing Pokémon to avoid changing odds), and I ignored any hands with no basic Pokémon. I counted times Greedy Dice was in the prize pool, in my opening hand of 7 (not including the card you draw during your first turn [which in hindsight I should've]) and the amount of Basic Pokémon in my hand (not entirely relevant but interesting to see).

    Greedy Dice in Prize Pool
    0:
    18
    1: 6
    2: 1
    3: 0
    4: 0

    Greedy Dice in Opening Hand
    0:
    19
    1: 4
    2: 2
    3: 0
    4: 0

    Basic Pokémon to Start
    1:
    12
    2: 7
    3+: 6

    And here's an image to represent the data:
    [​IMG]

    I wouldn't call this conclusive with such a small sample size, but it's interesting enough to look at I think still.
     
  20. Mimikyu_Booxd Aspiring Trainer
    Mimikyu_Booxd

    Member

    l
    Sometimes my super effectives don't deal 2x damage and sometimes my attached item cards don't do their effect! (My Chesnaught that had explosive balloon got attacked and they took the 20 (or was it 30) damage of Prickly needles but they didnt take the 60 damage of explosive balloon... Which was enough for them to mega evolve the next turn and I ended up losing that game which I had in the bag, as I needed 40damage more to wipe them out which the ballon would have provided)
     

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