OK so as steam siege is rapidly approaching, I just wanted to give you all a rundown of the math behind the new quizzical card Greedy Die. I think most of us have had the initial reaction of “Wow! This is really cool!” Followed about a second later with, “Oh wait no it’s not.” So I wanted to figure out exactly what is the probability of getting an extra prize card if you run 4 of these. Now, maybe someone out there who’s better at math than me can point out where I’m wrong, but I’m pretty sure my logic’s fairly solid here. Given: 4 copies of Greedy Die, no Town Map, all 6 prize cards in play If you’re running 4 copies of Greedy Die, you have about a 1 in 3 chance of getting Greedy Die into your prize cards Non Greedy Die Cards Total cards available to be drawn Chance of NOT drawing Greedy Die 56 60 93.33% 55 59 93.22% 54 58 93.10% 53 57 92.98% 52 56 92.86% 51 55 92.73% Total chance of not getting Greedy Die 64.85% So you have about a 35.15% chance of getting Greedy Die as one of your prize cards. I think that math and logic is sound (1 minus the product of those six chances of not pulling Greedy Die). Here’s where it gets fuzzy. Assuming you’re not running Town Map, if you knock out a non-EX Pokemon, you then have a 1 in 6 chance of pulling the Greedy Die. So you probably won’t pull it as one of your first couple of prize cards. I would guess that in most of the games we play, we don’t take all 6 prize cards. Either we lose or the opponent concedes early, but either way, even if Greedy Die is in your prize cards, there’s a pretty good chance you won’t even get the opportunity to pull it. And all of that is before the coin flip. So let’s say that you run 4 copies of Greedy Die, and (improbable as it may be) the first prize card you take just happens to be Greedy Die. In that unlikely case, you have about at 17.57% chance of taking an extra prize card. So in a best case scenario, about once in every six games, if you’re running 4 copies of Greedy Die, you’ll get an extra prize card out of it. But that’s best case scenario: I’m figuring that in reality, it’ll be more like 1 in 8 or 1 in 10. That’s my take on Greedy Die. Like I said, those of you who are better at probability than I am, please feel free to poke holes in my analysis here, but I think my numbers are pretty close.