“Twilight Masquerade” Pull Rates Revealed, Gold Cards Just Slightly Rarer

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Water Pokémon Master

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The pull rates for Twilight Masquerade are identical to our last English set, Temporal Forces, except for gold cards. This is according to data from TCGplayer, which used a sample size of over 8,000 booster packs.
TPCi decided to make Hyper Rares and Special Illustration Rares much rarer in Temporal Forces. That decision continues into Twilight Masquerade.
Hyper Rares (“gold cards”) are now found in 1 out of 146 packs, making them slightly rarer than in Temporal Forces, where they were found in 1 out of 139 packs. In Paradox Rift, they were in 1 out of 82 packs. In earlier Scarlet & Violet sets, they were in 1 out of ~54 packs...
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Really not a fan of these changes, they took a step back here. They hit the sweet spot with the rarities in early SV sets imo. Instead of changing rates, how about changing card quality TPCi? At least the art remains stellar and the card design has actually gotten better, excluding the increasingly powerful Snorlax stall buffs they keep printing
 
Gold cards are not (significantly) rarer in Twilight Masquerade than they were in Temporal Forces.

My bet as to what happened (given the provided confidence intervals) is that TCGPlayer opened up 40 booster box cases (=8640 packs) for both sets. In these two trials, they pulled 62 gold cards for TEF and only 59 for TWM. Running these data through a 2-sample proportion test give a p value of .855, which is much larger than any reasonable level of significance, meaning they can't be called any different.
(For the record, this same guess as to TCGPlayer's methodology, when comparing Temporal Forces and Paradox Rift [=105 cards] does give a significant result at p=.00109)
 
Isn't this just the Ace Specs clogging up the slots? Sets now have an additional ultra rare type of card and the frequency of the others obviously goes down. In fact the overall rate of ultra rares has gone up to 20% in sets with Ace Specs. Why are people yapping about it like it's some evil plot from the company? Illustration rares and whatnot showing up less just seems like a collateral of the introduction of Ace Spec cards into sets, am I missing something?
 
treeckonation said:
this is what we call capitalism.
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No, printing foil cards is not that expensive for the Pokémon Company. They are doing this to make them more desirable. and even if somehow it was super expensive to do, they would also make full arts rarer
 
I mean the increased rates haven't increased prices too bad, and it makes it more fun and desirable when you do get one, It's no where near as bad as V alt arts so I think they've hit the sweet spot
 
The sweet spot was the first year of SV, and the fact that the card game sold more cards than any other year in their recorded history is a pretty good indication that what they were doing was working, especially because the first year of a new generation is typically tamer and less desirable.

The prices for most of the SIRs in Temporal and so far Twilight suck considering how many of them there are in a single set. Opening an entire booster box and not being guaranteed even one SIR or Hyper is garbage. I did see a few investbros whining that it was "too easy" to get the best chase cards in SV's first year so I hope those people are happy paying $80 for Perrin, $90 for Raging Bolt, $95 for Carmine and $120 for Greninja now. :rolleyes:
 
Frost said:
The sweet spot was the first year of SV, and the fact that the card game sold more cards than any other year in their recorded history is a pretty good indication that what they were doing was working, especially because the first year of a new generation is typically tamer and less desirable.

The prices for most of the SIRs in Temporal and so far Twilight suck considering how many of them there are in a single set. Opening an entire booster box and not being guaranteed even one SIR or Hyper is garbage. I did see a few investbros whining that it was "too easy" to get the best chase cards in SV's first year so I hope those people are happy paying $80 for Perrin, $90 for Raging Bolt, $95 for Carmine and $120 for Greninja now. :rolleyes:
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most of the expensive cards have been market manipulated or are charizard, the greninja will go down, and even the ones that have been market manipulated will go down too, and they will all be around £50+ for top chases, which I think is not too bad, the prices for all but raging bolt are release day prices and will almost certainly go down by probably half by next month if it follows similar trends from the other sets.
 
Yeah, that's the thing. Making the rare cards even more rare when we have secondary markets like TCGPlayer that are prone to buyouts and market manipulation and on day #1 of a set release vomit out pull rate infographics engineered to instill FOMO and scare people into buying the chase cards ASAP. None of it helps. Why does TPCi have to make it worse?
 
Frost said:
Yeah, that's the thing. Making the rare cards even more rare when we have secondary markets like TCGPlayer that are prone to buyouts and market manipulation and on day #1 of a set release vomit out pull rate infographics engineered to instill FOMO and scare people into buying the chase cards ASAP. None of it helps. Why does TPCi have to make it worse?
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The thing I hate the most is that in Japanese the Iron Crown is like £30, but in english its £80, theyre making the card expensive for no reason cause I swear no one likes iron crown and his card is not £80 good. The smartest thing is to just not buy the cards day 1 unless youre playing but you only need the base rarities if youre playing, if people waited like 1-2 months it would be like half the price.
 
Scoitol said:
No, printing foil cards is not that expensive for the Pokémon Company. They are doing this to make them more desirable. and even if somehow it was super expensive to do, they would also make full arts rarer
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yea capitalism making it more hard to find and to buy more packs for the chance of getting it.
 
I think it's cool to have super rare cards, being rare-er make them cooler, just look ar obf charizard, no one wants it beacause it's soo easy to pull. While moonbreon is literrally almost impossible to pull and now everyone wants it
 
Diego Lima said:
Isn't this just the Ace Specs clogging up the slots? Sets now have an additional ultra rare type of card and the frequency of the others obviously goes down. In fact the overall rate of ultra rares has gone up to 20% in sets with Ace Specs. Why are people yapping about it like it's some evil plot from the company? Illustration rares and whatnot showing up less just seems like a collateral of the introduction of Ace Spec cards into sets, am I missing something?
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I was leaning towards this explanation too. Tbh, pull rates aren't even bad! This set does have decent pull rates but the illustrations may lack due to the Ogerpon Masks being so abundant. Either way, Crimson/Mask of Change put together IMO made an ok set! Not super thrilling by any means, but nice. There are tons of playable cards here in this set, just need to give it some time to marinate like all the others!
 
Cyndaquil987 said:
The thing I hate the most is that in Japanese the Iron Crown is like £30, but in english its £80, theyre making the card expensive for no reason cause I swear no one likes iron crown and his card is not £80 good. The smartest thing is to just not buy the cards day 1 unless youre playing but you only need the base rarities if youre playing, if people waited like 1-2 months it would be like half the price.
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Take into consideration that Japans in a recession rn. All of their cards are cheap, across all rarities & even their sealed product, its just cheap rn. English QC is not good at all so to translate: If you have a PSA 10 English Iron Crown = Big $. If you have a PSA 10 Iron Crown in JP = Less $ but most likely will grade high due to the QC being so good in JP. I will say, there was 100% market manipulation with this card & the Magikarp AR from Paldea Evolved. I think for artwork and aesthetic, no reason why the Iron Crown should be cheap. It has a lot of great texturing & the cherry blossom tree is a nice touch. Having the moon in the back was making people go bonkers saying this is "Moon Crown" like the Moonbreon from Evolving Skies. Only time will tell to see what these sets do!
 
gymleaderorion said:
Take into consideration that Japans in a recession rn. All of their cards are cheap, across all rarities & even their sealed product, its just cheap rn. English QC is not good at all so to translate: If you have a PSA 10 English Iron Crown = Big $. If you have a PSA 10 Iron Crown in JP = Less $ but most likely will grade high due to the QC being so good in JP. I will say, there was 100% market manipulation with this card & the Magikarp AR from Paldea Evolved. I think for artwork and aesthetic, no reason why the Iron Crown should be cheap. It has a lot of great texturing & the cherry blossom tree is a nice touch. Having the moon in the back was making people go bonkers saying this is "Moon Crown" like the Moonbreon from Evolving Skies. Only time will tell to see what these sets do!
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I still think it's market manipulation tho, cause every nice looking card, let's look at the tera fighting greninja for example, usually come out at max price. Release day prices for temporal forces maxed out at the leaves being around £45+£50. But then randomly put of no where, 4 cards doubled in price. I haven't being following for ages, but it does seem that this isn't normal, especially with the other scarlet and violet sets. But now every other card but the crown is back where it started, and it looks like the crown is meant to be (my little collector app says it should be around £50 instead of £70 rn) but people are still selling it for around £80, and I just want my cool little crown to play future box with
 
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