Finished PokeBeach Mafia 50: Fray at the Beach - Game Over - Claim Your Prizes and Vote!

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I don't really have much more to add. As I said it was more early game reads that I had notes taken about and nothing too much of recent.

Luispipe8 said:
You consider this big? It's a 3-line paragraph, not that I took an hour thinking it through :p
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The one thing I will clarify is that here I mean 'big' as in an emotional kneejerk to a pretty common thing (a reminder to everyone of the people that just voted a townie) as opposed to lengthy response. For example, no-one else in the same list responded to it at all, whereas you got defensive.
 
Oh wait there was one more thing, I got sidetracked & wanted to edit it in earlier but then it didn't seem like a big deal on it's own.

Just that this
Hey, at least my thoughts on a Policy Lynch on triplemo was on a nice track. Despite the mess and that weird action with PMJ, at least we got rid of a mafian.

Now, let's move along my list:
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struck me at the time of a "Hey everyone, see how town I must be!!", reinforcement, even though it was only an early vote that could have come off if he was in any real danger. legit town don't usually highlight their townie actions like this unless they are under direct pressure.
 
Tapu Lele said:
Also, I find it REALLY odd that 9 out of the 19 are already voting simsands, when there is maybe 5 mafia left, give or take a few (I'm not sure how many mafia are usually put in a 2 faction game with 27 people)?

If simsands is mafia, you'd have to assume the set of everyone who did not vote for him,
DashKing, GekkisaiDaiNi, GM Draclord, Megapod_781, Mariano11887, quakingpunch73, Robin Aisaga, Tapu Lele, Yog, mirdo
include all possible mafia member, or that mafia is cutting him off
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Removing myself before it gets re-quoted later :p

But agreed, probably not ALL, but definitely most.

The other thing that is striking me as a little odd right now is the lack of an alternate lynch. In the moments before scum gets lynched, usually there will be some scumbuddies attempting to steer the vote some other way. The fact that that is not happening makes me think we might be way off here.
 
Seriously. If simsands not going to come here and defend himself it would be a shame, because if he's town he should have a good explanation and the sooner he gives that the longer time we will have to find another target.
 
I also hope everyone noticed how Pika disappeared after I gave him a question about why he is voting sim. New scum tend to join late to a bandwagon and echo previous posts (he echoed something that was said earlier about Dash, but the part on sim is too complicated to echo from a single post, so he gave 0 reasoning).
 
scattered mind said:
I also hope everyone noticed how Pika disappeared after I gave him a question about why he is voting sim. New scum tend to join late to a bandwagon and echo previous posts (he echoed something that was said earlier about Dash, but the part on sim is too complicated to echo from a single post, so he gave 0 reasoning).
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I agree wholeheartedly. However, this further suggests that sim may indeed be innocent while Pika is mafia.

It wouldn't make too much sense for both of them to be mafia now, would it?
 
If you’re going to take all this evidence we have against sim and just say “welp his buddies aren’t defending him guess he’s innocent” then are you not defending him yourself meaning he is scum and so are you?
 
Tapu Lele said:
I agree wholeheartedly. However, this further suggests that sim may indeed be innocent while Pika is mafia.

It wouldn't make too much sense for both of them to be mafia now, would it?
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I guess not. Look, I hate lynching someone without letting them defend themselves. Sim has not logged in since Friday. Plus, we are lynching him based on a theory that (like any theory) may be completely wrong. It can fall on two terms:
1) sim was not referring to AP during D2 when he said he wanted to look into someone.
2) the ability sim used did not inform him any cutting proof that AP is town or scum, but perhaps simply gave him a feeling that AP is town, and that was enough for him to defend him.

This is at least the only explanation I can come up with for sim being town.

However, consider these facts that we know:

Sim said he believes AP to be town during D3 when AP was scum.
Sim did not explain why, because he did not think it was worth to reveal at the time.

Usually, the things you don't want to reveal is a role that helped you to get some understanding, so that's what is so confusing if sim is town. Why would he defend AP like that when AP was scum since the end of D2? Also, there is always the chance that it was not him using an ability, but one of his scum buddies. Eventually, without any response from sim or an alternative convincing explanation, I think sim should be lynched.
 
TOTAL_EPICNESS said:
Why?
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If a bandwagon was for a mafia member to be lynched, and it was already almost full, why would mafia it all of a sudden? Mafia would have to be REALLY pulling at strings if that were the case.


TOTAL_EPICNESS said:
If you’re going to take all this evidence we have against sim and just say “welp his buddies aren’t defending him guess he’s innocent” then are you not defending him yourself meaning he is scum and so are you?
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See Sm's post. This is all based on a constructed theory that is still pretty circumstantial. I don't believe that we have any definitive evidence.
 
There is almost no way to get “definitive” evidence in this game unless it’s from a confirmed detective
Every lynch has been done based off of a constructed theory that defense holds no weight
 
TOTAL_EPICNESS said:
There is almost no way to get “definitive” evidence in this game unless it’s from a confirmed detective
Every lynch has been done based off of a constructed theory that defense holds no weight
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I guess you are right on that, but even then, you couldn't trust that the detective is telling the truth either, no?

Personally, I've been trying to piece together things from the results of each night, and those actions that are confirmed between members admitting to them. I figure that its possible to get to a point where all possibilities are exhausted and one possibility remains. But we keep describing that as a "funk", so apparently I should be staying away from that.
 
Tapu Lele said:
I guess you are right on that, but even then, you couldn't trust that the detective is telling the truth either, no?

Personally, I've been trying to piece together things from the results of each night, and those actions that are confirmed between members admitting to them. I figure that its possible to get to a point where all possibilities are exhausted and one possibility remains. But we keep describing that as a "funk", so apparently I should be staying away from that.
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Feel free to do that, but remember that most players would not want to give you info on their role because obviously, it is a precious info for the scum team that needs to find out who is the most dangerous town player for them each night to kill. Many players like myself enjoy playing by scumhunting and analyzing behavioral patterns, and others, like you perhaps, prefer more to look into the roles and abilities and analyze the reported results. Both are helpful in their own way, and both can be manipulated by the mafia. I think it is important to try using the two strategies as much as you can though, and not relying on just one throughout the game.
 
Sim isn’t going to defend himself let’s just majority vote him already
But I know we have to be reasonable
How about if he doesn’t defend himself by the end of today and I mean this real life day we majority vote him
 
scattered mind said:
Feel free to do that, but remember that most players would not want to give you info on their role because obviously, it is a precious info for the scum team that needs to find out who is the most dangerous town player for them each night to kill.
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Yeah, I've been told that very much recently. I'm going to be backing off role pressing, but I'm just going to remind you that it was @Acetrainer_Samwise who "revealed" part of your role, Metapod who openly revealed their own role's function, and TOTAL_EPICNESS who openly admitted to being trapped and having a passive ability.

I'll just stay on the sidelines for now :/
 
TOTAL_EPICNESS said:
Sim isn’t going to defend himself let’s just majority vote him already
But I know we have to be reasonable
How about if he doesn’t defend himself by the end of today and I mean this real life day we majority vote him
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Well, that's already going to happen as it is.
 
There are eight hours remaining. That is enough time to drive a different lynch, and enough time for Sim to get on and defend himself, but probably not enough time for both. Like if he comes on with a reasonable explanation but there's only three hours left then it's probably too late no matter how good it is.
 
Yog said:
There are eight hours remaining. That is enough time to drive a different lynch, and enough time for Sim to get on and defend himself, but probably not enough time for both. Like if he comes on with a reasonable explanation but there's only three hours left then it's probably too late no matter how good it is.
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Are your thoughts on Pika too?
 
scattered mind said:
Sim said he believes AP to be town during D3 when AP was scum.
Sim did not explain why, because he did not think it was worth to reveal at the time.
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Sim said he has reasons to beleive AP was town, but AP switched to the dark side at some moment of the game. So we don't really know when Sim arrived to that conclusion, hence we can't take it as a parameter to say "he defended a confirmed scum" because AP wasn't scum the entire game. What if Sim is a seer and targeted AP before his switch?
 
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