Finished Mafia LXI: Forest Fire: Game Over!

[Ephemera]

so @Amici went from "obviously town" to "townread definitely not a lock"?

Misinterpreting me here. She is very towny to me, but I'm not gonna lock that for the whole game – if i'm wrong, it's super easy to coast on that pocket if i never reevaluate.
I don't think I'm wrong, but then again I never do, so if somehow I can no longer talk in thread at some point, I don't want my posts to be read as locking amici 100% town.

Yeah, I know scattered's a good player so I'm sure he has some reason to openly admit to withholding information.
...
Ok now that I typed that it seems really scummy. I can see town!scattered waiting for a reaction or something before giving out reads, but I'm having more and more trouble believing that the longer he waits.

Also, I was referring to this post - really the only post where he seems to add to the discussion.

Huh. I personally interpreted scattered's mindset differently – read to me like he was trying not to give out reads yet so he wouldn't get confbiased (confirmation bias) on little info.
Also, he's given out reads now, what do you make of them?

 

[Ephemera]

Okay, rereading a little.

Jade's newest post is very towny. Asking solving questions, putting suspicion in good places, comfortable with banter. Add that to his other few posts and my townread on him is strengthening.

Now that I've actually slept, lemme check Mega again.
Macro read on him is null-town, voted him to see what would happen based on that one post where he was very hedgy.
Results of that: he voted me back, although based on a misunderstanding of my intentions.
Huh. I was getting a better impression of Mega but writing it out his reaction doesn't seem too good. Still, overall his posts aren't too suspicious, so I think I can move somewhere else for now.

##UNBLEH: MegaPod_781
##COMEBACK: Celever

What do you think of the interactions now?

 

[bbninjas]

Eph, the reason why I keep pushing discussion about you is because you’re not actually addressing the claim! Your latest post doesn’t respond to this below point at all, and I’ve said some variant of this many times already today hence my vote, yet you haven’t addressed it.

“Eph, your reads on a person seems to directly correspond with how that person has read you, and this is a pattern you haven’t addressed yet.”

Can you address this please?

 

[Ephemera]

Eph, the reason why I keep pushing discussion about you is because you’re not actually addressing the claim! Your latest post doesn’t respond to this below point at all, and I’ve said some variant of this many times already today hence my vote, yet you haven’t addressed it.

“Eph, your reads on a person seems to directly correspond with how that person has read you, and this is a pattern you haven’t addressed yet.”

Can you address this please?

oh sure. I wish I could say it's a coincidence, but honestly considering my subconscious it's probably not 100% coincidental? I have said that had you four been on another wagon I'd still think there was scum there. As for the Amici/Vom townreads, I found amici town from the pocketing jab, not from the townread on me, while the Vom townread was coming because I realized I was biased from her first post. So, I have reasons for the reads, but mayyyybe my subconscious influenced me a little?

 

[Vom]

No questions are directed towards me

You stole my response to this right out of my mouth in that same post:

I mean, getting your thoughts out never hurts so like thats a bit off

:big brain:

no it’s your attempt to distant yourself from eph plus avoiding questions regarding your connection. Plus my read did make you come out of the shadows so I don’t feel bad.

Actually I think it was the vote. People had already asked her questions, she came to clarify something about a joke, but it was only after you voted her that she addressed the game.

I've called one obviously bad ephe post bad. In what universe is that any form of practical distancing. It doesn't muddy any potential connection really

But calling an "obviously bad post bad" hardly clears up the connection, eh? I guess you're not muddying it, but you're certainly not clarifying it either.

Huh. I personally interpreted scattered's mindset differently – read to me like he was trying not to give out reads yet so he wouldn't get confbiased (confirmation bias) on little info.

How would sharing his reads give him confirmation bias? If they are already in his head, he's already biased, regardless of typing them down or not.

Also, he's given out reads now, what do you make of them?

I mostly agree, but I'm looking for more than just reads. I wanna see where his push on Amici takes us.

 

[Ephemera]

So yeah. From my conscious perspective I have reasons for all of them that aren't the read they have on me. Subconsciously the read they have on me may affect my train of thought, I don't know. But I have legitimate reasons for thinking there's scum in vom/cel/bb/mega, and also that amici and vom are probably town.

 

[Vom]

there's scum in vom/cel/bb/mega, and also that amici and vom are probably town.

bruh pick one

 

[Ephemera]

How would sharing his reads give him confirmation bias? If they are already in his head, he's already biased, regardless of typing them down or not.

I mostly agree, but I'm looking for more than just reads. I wanna see where his push on Amici takes us.

1) I get you, but like (at least in my experience) once you post something in thread, it's almost an obligation to stick to it? Like, when you put in a read it sort of solidifies that in your head and you can't get it out.

2) Fair.

 

[Ephemera]

bruh pick one

They're not mutually exclusive! I think that at least one of the four of you on my wagon is scum, based on wagonomics and rationale, but I also individually townread you due to your belief in your posts and your work.

 

[Vom]

1) I get you, but like (at least in my experience) once you post something in thread, it's almost an obligation to stick to it? Like, when you put in a read it sort of solidifies that in your head and you can't get it out.

Ok, I get what you mean, but that's not how confirmation bias works. Also, an obligation? You can always change your mind - as town you don't have to worry about how you look going from case to case. The only people for whom it's an 'obligation' to keep attention off yourself is, well, scum.

 

[Vom]

They're not mutually exclusive! I think that at least one of the four of you on my wagon is scum, based on wagonomics and rationale, but I also individually townread you due to your belief in your posts and your work.

Town and scum are very much mutually exclusive. It's fine if you're not sure about your read, just say that. We can't guess which one you actually mean if you just say both.

 

[Ephemera]

Ok, I get what you mean, but that's not how confirmation bias works. Also, an obligation? You can always change your mind - as town you don't have to worry about how you look going from case to case. The only people for whom it's an 'obligation' to keep attention off yourself is, well, scum.

Maybe it's just a me thing? It's just a sort of compulsion, like "I put this in thread, I have to stick to it" or whatever.
(Honestly probably my pride not wanting to admit my reads could possibly be wrong)

 

[Ephemera]

Town and scum are very much mutually exclusive. It's fine if you're not sure about your read, just say that. We can't guess which one you actually mean if you just say both.

I mean like:

Looking at my wagon, vom/cel/bb/mega are all voting me. My wagon is an easy one to join, an easy vote to retract, an easy miselimination, and an easy case to justify. Thus I'm fairly sure there's at least one scum here.

Looking at your posts, I feel like you believe in your thoughts/reads/questions – you aren't just posting to make yourself look like you're solving, you're solving. So based on that I think you're town.

However, since the two are not related with regards to reason for the read/suspicion, I don't think I can with confidence take you out of that pool of four – if the other three end up being town, I can see you being scum on my early wagon, for example.

TL;DR: in a vacuum I read you town. Given the context of my wagon you could be scum. I think you're town, but I'm going to mention the whole wagon so I can get the full picture of that suspicion.

 

[Ephemera]

Amici/Jade currently my top townreads, Vom is up there too. Scattered is alright, but I want to see more. Lily doesn't seem coached – will reevaluate this when she posts more.

So yeah, POE (Pool of Elimination) is bb/mega/cel.

(Pool of Elimination means the players that you haven't cleared as town or townread, and thus the scum are likely within that pool)

 

[bbninjas]

Eph, the reason why I keep pushing discussion about you is because you’re not actually addressing the claim! Your latest post doesn’t respond to this below point at all, and I’ve said some variant of this many times already today hence my vote, yet you haven’t addressed it.


“Eph, your reads on a person seems to directly correspond with how that person has read you, and this is a pattern you haven’t addressed yet.”


Can you address this please?

CORRECTION: I realise that Eph had answered my main point in post #160 and I missed it while on my phone, so this post is void. My bad.

 

[bbninjas]

I took another look at Jade's posts and they're much townier than I had initially thought - much more original analysis and few echos, active intentions to find scum, etc. @Jadethepokemontrainer You said in #140 that you think Vom is making valid points; what do you think is valid in particular?

Very insightful posts coming from Amici, I'm liking this. Very good point about Eph becoming more defensive under little pressure (#152), interesting distinction between my and Mega's push on Eph (#154); they may be in the shadows, but Amici is definitely paying attention to this game. Anyway, @Amici what's your take on lurkers usually? Do you opt to lynch them? Ignore them? Something else?

@Fiery_Lugia Mafia has a bit of a difficulty curve so I get ya. Best advice is to start off with your instincts, and then go from there. Say you had a gun and had to fire it right this very second to eliminate someone in this game, who would you shoot and eliminate?

But I have legitimate reasons for thinking there's scum in vom/cel/bb/mega, and also that amici and vom are probably town.

@Ephemera, I think you need to either drop this list, or get legitimate reasons for pushing one of the people on it. No one else can have legitimate reasons for thinking there's scum in vom/cel/bb/mega because no one actually knows your alignment. If you're town then you need to work outside of your "I'm town" paradigm and find something that is actually persuasive. If you're scum then keep doing what you're doing because no one is going to buy this.

Aside, I do have a question for you. What do you think about eliminating Celever today? He's a good player but difficult to read, so we either get a confo-town who can still post because eliminated people just become tree stumps; or we get a scum who is lurking and basically impossible to read.

 

[bbninjas]

I took another look at Jade's posts and they're much townier than I had initially thought - much more original analysis and few echos, active intentions to find scum, etc. @Jadethepokemontrainer

*much more original analysis and fewer echoes; more active intentions to find scum, etc

 

[bbninjas]

I reckon @Vom is tunneling Eph to the detriment of the town atm; she's arguing over nitpicks and minor contradictions and not digging up anything new, it's basically smoke and mirrors. Also - Vom seems to only respond to other people's posts when they mention her in them (i.e. she's not participating in the other discussions happening around her unless it actually pertains her). Vom doesn't seem to be working with the town, she seems to be playing a self-preservation game instead

 

[Amici]

I took another look at Jade's posts and they're much townier than I had initially thought - much more original analysis and few echos, active intentions to find scum, etc. @Jadethepokemontrainer You said in #140 that you think Vom is making valid points; what do you think is valid in particular?

Very insightful posts coming from Amici, I'm liking this. Very good point about Eph becoming more defensive under little pressure (#152), interesting distinction between my and Mega's push on Eph (#154); they may be in the shadows, but Amici is definitely paying attention to this game. Anyway, @Amici what's your take on lurkers usually? Do you opt to lynch them? Ignore them? Something else?

@Fiery_Lugia Mafia has a bit of a difficulty curve so I get ya. Best advice is to start off with your instincts, and then go from there. Say you had a gun and had to fire it right this very second to eliminate someone in this game, who would you shoot and eliminate?


@Ephemera, I think you need to either drop this list, or get legitimate reasons for pushing one of the people on it. No one else can have legitimate reasons for thinking there's scum in vom/cel/bb/mega because no one actually knows your alignment. If you're town then you need to work outside of your "I'm town" paradigm and find something that is actually persuasive. If you're scum then keep doing what you're doing because no one is going to buy this.

Aside, I do have a question for you. What do you think about eliminating Celever today? He's a good player but difficult to read, so we either get a confo-town who can still post because eliminated people just become tree stumps; or we get a scum who is lurking and basically impossible to read.

(Ignore the giant wall of shit i can’t quote well on mobile)

The way I handle lurkers tends to vary dependent on game state, like right now if we had bigger fish to fry lurkers are out of the question in the lynch pool. If we’re dead in the water a lurker lynch is on the table. Also the fact it’s a 9p (relatively) vanilla means wasting one of our very few lynches on someone who won’t provide much info via murderization other than wagon stuff is really less than ideal.

 

[Scattered mind]

(Ignore the giant wall of shit i can’t quote well on mobile)

The way I handle lurkers tends to vary dependent on game state, like right now if we had bigger fish to fry lurkers are out of the question in the lynch pool. If we’re dead in the water a lurker lynch is on the table. Also the fact it’s a 9p (relatively) vanilla means wasting one of our very few lynches on someone who won’t provide much info via murderization other than wagon stuff is really less than ideal.

completely agree with this.
And for this game lurkers are at the moment out of the question. But they will be on the hot spot getting into D2.

still need to reread more. Will post more later.