Hello Everyone!
I am new to this forum but I have always loved Pokemon (video game, card, movie, etc.) just as I am sure everyone on else does here. My passion in life has always been in finances and so I decided to create a user for this forum to talk about the Economics of Pokemon (Pokenomics). Recently there has been an explosion within the Pokemon trading card world, especially for vintage cards and it has brought me back and so many others into the world again. There are a lot of topics I want to talk about and share with you guys through Pokenomics but I first want to start with the 1999 Base Set Unlimited Series.
One thing I have always been curious about is the value of a pokemon card packs relative to the contents within. Before creating a spreadsheet to calculate, I always assumed a packs value far exceeded its contents. I figured there must be a gambling effect associated with pokemon cards that causes people to buy packs to chase the holy grails (IE PSA 10 Charizard). However, my finding showed that the market for packs vs content was actually pretty efficient. I have some fine tuning to do before I release the spreadsheet but this is basically how it has been created and the assumptions that have been made:
1. Spreadsheet looks only at PSA cards sold. This is to create a standard to base prices off of.
2. Spreadsheet is only looking at PSA 9 and 10 cards. I have not had the luxury of opening vintage packs myself but I assume that a mint pack (fresh from a booster) has at least a PSA 9 grade card within it.
3. Spreadsheet is not taking into account any pack errors that could increase value (Square Cuts, Stage Errors, Off-Center Cards, etc.)
4. The data used for the spreadsheet is from the PSA website. PSA tracks all sales on ebay and post the most recent sale and average sale on their site. This spreadsheet is using most recent sale data for calculations.
5. I am using PSA population data (POP) of PSA 9 and 10 cards to show the difficulty of pulling a PSA 10. For example Charizard has a current population of 433 PSA 10 and 4,697 PSA 9. That is 8.44% chance of your pack fresh Charizard resulting in a PSA 10. (Its an assumption that everyone who had a mint Charizard did not damage before submitting to PSA. Also an assumption that historical data is accurate for new submissions. I have heard rumors that PSA is making it harder to get a PSA 10 Charizard but I cannot control for that in my spreadsheet)
6. Not all cards have been listed on PSA website and so I have to do manual scouring of Ebay for some cards (Base Set Pikachu, Charmander, Squirtle, Most Uncommons/Commons).
7. Assuming 1 Holo for 3 Packs. Assuming all holos have equal opportunity to be pulled. This logic means every 45 packs you could pull a Base Set Charizard. (Seems about right).
Results:
1. My current results show that the final auction price on ebay of a Base Set Booster Box should go for about $34,750 including sales tax, PSA grading, and resell fees. This is breakeven of the contents of packs for the price of the box.
2. It would take opening about 533 1999 Base Set Booster Packs to find (1!) PSA 10 Charizard.
I want to hear from the community if you think my process is skewed as I continue to tweak the excel file. Also if there is anyone in the community who want to work on this project with me I'd love to collaborate (No you won't be paid this is a passion project).
Final Note: I do not plan to use this spreadsheet to leverage a position in the Pokemon Trading Card Game Market. I do not have the capital or desire to exploit the market, I just love studying it and see this as a learning opportunity. The fact that the market I get to study is Pokemon makes it even cooler.
Thanks for reading this long post.
Pokenomics
I am new to this forum but I have always loved Pokemon (video game, card, movie, etc.) just as I am sure everyone on else does here. My passion in life has always been in finances and so I decided to create a user for this forum to talk about the Economics of Pokemon (Pokenomics). Recently there has been an explosion within the Pokemon trading card world, especially for vintage cards and it has brought me back and so many others into the world again. There are a lot of topics I want to talk about and share with you guys through Pokenomics but I first want to start with the 1999 Base Set Unlimited Series.
One thing I have always been curious about is the value of a pokemon card packs relative to the contents within. Before creating a spreadsheet to calculate, I always assumed a packs value far exceeded its contents. I figured there must be a gambling effect associated with pokemon cards that causes people to buy packs to chase the holy grails (IE PSA 10 Charizard). However, my finding showed that the market for packs vs content was actually pretty efficient. I have some fine tuning to do before I release the spreadsheet but this is basically how it has been created and the assumptions that have been made:
1. Spreadsheet looks only at PSA cards sold. This is to create a standard to base prices off of.
2. Spreadsheet is only looking at PSA 9 and 10 cards. I have not had the luxury of opening vintage packs myself but I assume that a mint pack (fresh from a booster) has at least a PSA 9 grade card within it.
3. Spreadsheet is not taking into account any pack errors that could increase value (Square Cuts, Stage Errors, Off-Center Cards, etc.)
4. The data used for the spreadsheet is from the PSA website. PSA tracks all sales on ebay and post the most recent sale and average sale on their site. This spreadsheet is using most recent sale data for calculations.
5. I am using PSA population data (POP) of PSA 9 and 10 cards to show the difficulty of pulling a PSA 10. For example Charizard has a current population of 433 PSA 10 and 4,697 PSA 9. That is 8.44% chance of your pack fresh Charizard resulting in a PSA 10. (Its an assumption that everyone who had a mint Charizard did not damage before submitting to PSA. Also an assumption that historical data is accurate for new submissions. I have heard rumors that PSA is making it harder to get a PSA 10 Charizard but I cannot control for that in my spreadsheet)
6. Not all cards have been listed on PSA website and so I have to do manual scouring of Ebay for some cards (Base Set Pikachu, Charmander, Squirtle, Most Uncommons/Commons).
7. Assuming 1 Holo for 3 Packs. Assuming all holos have equal opportunity to be pulled. This logic means every 45 packs you could pull a Base Set Charizard. (Seems about right).
Results:
1. My current results show that the final auction price on ebay of a Base Set Booster Box should go for about $34,750 including sales tax, PSA grading, and resell fees. This is breakeven of the contents of packs for the price of the box.
2. It would take opening about 533 1999 Base Set Booster Packs to find (1!) PSA 10 Charizard.
I want to hear from the community if you think my process is skewed as I continue to tweak the excel file. Also if there is anyone in the community who want to work on this project with me I'd love to collaborate (No you won't be paid this is a passion project).
Final Note: I do not plan to use this spreadsheet to leverage a position in the Pokemon Trading Card Game Market. I do not have the capital or desire to exploit the market, I just love studying it and see this as a learning opportunity. The fact that the market I get to study is Pokemon makes it even cooler.
Thanks for reading this long post.
Pokenomics