Finished Mafia LXI: Forest Fire: Game Over!

[Scattered mind]

...have you been reading the thread? BB is the one who started the push on Ephe so them being scum is a large leap from my POV at least

@Celever I hear you. that is one quote that looks like a careful defense on bb. The "from my POV at least" is placed there and it seems to me that's a use of words she wouldn't have to pick at the moment of just writing in an "are you kidding me?" sense. Hard to explain but yeah i would like to read more from her too.

 

[bbninjas]

Here are all the posts from #120 to #173 where Ephemera threw suspicion on either me or "the four". This should show pretty clearly why I responded in the way I did.

I have excluded posts where Eph was asked to talk more about me or the four (that would misconstrue the numbers). The last quote (#176) is where I defend myself against these suspicions for the first time. Red for emphasis.

...

This leaves me with bb/cel/vom, who coincidentally all sus me. The way I've been playing is v different from how I've played before – wanted to try new things out – so I can understand townies sussing me here, but I doubt scum would let the chance to get a mislunch on me go to waste – ergo I feel like at least one here is scum, to set up progression on a full-on scumread of me.

I'm gonna throw out my null on bb, my scum toneread of cel, and my disagreement with vom. Lemme check their arguments against me.

...

...

However, the fact that I am multi-ISOing (for the uninitiated, ISO stands for ISOlate, and multi-ISOing is going over multiple people's posts in isolation) the three people voting me is (at least to my conscious mind) for objective reasons. I can see townies sussing me for my chaotic play and weak reads with confidence, but I highly doubt they're all town – easy ml, right here? Sign scum the heck up – which is why I'm going through their posts

[... iso of a number of people including bbninjas ...]

##UNZONE: Vom
##SUSPECT: bbninjas

where's this gonna lead? let's see!

snap scumteam call #2: mega/bb. This is in no way accurate, just a thought I had.

...
##UNSUSPECT: bbninjas - although i still very much suspect bb, i feel like my vote's not needed on him right now
##BLEH: MegaPod_781

new rainbow:
Amici
Scattered/Vom
Lily
Jade – null town level here
Mega/bb
Cel

3 at the bottom are all kinda close to each other.

...

There's gotta be scum voting me here. It's too easy of a target to pass up – easy mislunch, if the slot (me) starts posting their way to being found as town, also easy to back off. Win-win for scum, no harm in getting on this wagon early to get progression on me, and with the plurality today, no danger of hammering me. This is like the optimal wagon for scum to pile onto or build.

People currently voting me: bb/vom/cel/mega – there's at least one scum here, maybe both. it's possible the scumteam is taking different approaches here, so I'm leaning towards only one? bb/vom/cel were on my wagon first – i guess it's possible that mega is the scum among the four, and the first three are all town looking for my response to the wagon? – but again, it's the easiest wagon to get on, the easiest to justify, and the easiest to back off of. I think scum on my wagon is more likely to be within bb/cel/vom – mega's vote, if it stays on, is almost too obvious to get my wagon into a runaway lead.

...
Looking at my wagon, vom/cel/bb/mega are all voting me. My wagon is an easy one to join, an easy vote to retract, an easy miselimination, and an easy case to justify. Thus I'm fairly sure there's at least one scum here.
...

And finally I respond:

...
@Ephemera, I think you need to either drop this list, or get legitimate reasons for pushing one of the people on it. No one else can have legitimate reasons for thinking there's scum in vom/cel/bb/mega because no one actually knows your alignment. If you're town then you need to work outside of your "I'm town" paradigm and find something that is actually persuasive. If you're scum then keep doing what you're doing because no one is going to buy this.
...

To say I had no need to defend myself? To say my response is "unwarranted"? I think it is very clear that I was repeatedly and consistently having suspicion thrown my way without any particular evidence to back it up. I actually waited for Eph to bring out some case on me so that I could respond, and it had not. happened. It instead got worse.

@scattered mind @MegaPod_781. To say that I was being too defensive is ridiculous.

 

[Scattered mind]

Here are all the posts from #120 to #173 where Ephemera threw suspicion on either me or "the four". This should show pretty clearly why I responded in the way I did.

I have excluded posts where Eph was asked to talk more about me or the four (that would misconstrue the numbers). The last quote (#176) is where I defend myself against these suspicions for the first time. Red for emphasis.

You needed to defend yourself but the way you defended was too much in relation to the eph posts. It was one player saying pretty much that you among others might be scum with no reasoning.









And finally I respond:

To say I had no need to defend myself? To say my response is "unwarranted"? I think it is very clear that I was repeatedly and consistently having suspicion thrown my way without any particular evidence to back it up. I actually waited for Eph to bring out some case on me so that I could respond, and it had not. happened. It instead got worse.

@scattered mind @MegaPod_781. To say that I was being too defensive is ridiculous.

 

[Scattered mind]

Testing

 

[Scattered mind]

Ok I don’t know why it didn’t show my message: the case is not that you defended yourself. It’s the overdefensive way you did it to one player accusing you among others with little reasoning.

 

[MegaPod_781]

Yeah, basically what scattered said. I can see why you’d think that Eph had been throwing shade in your general direction (plus mine and Vom’s and Cel’s), but even out of the red quotes most focused on you specifically, Eph’s position on you being scum seemed iffy at best, nowhere near as aggressive as a “very persistent smear campaign,” as you put it, would seem to imply...

 

[bbninjas]

Ok I don’t know why it didn’t show my message: the case is not that you defended yourself. It’s the overdefensive way you did it to one player accusing you among others with little reasoning.

Yes, I know your point is not that I defended myself. Hence I said it was about being "too defensive" in my post above.

That aside, @scattered mind how exactly is the four sentences in my response (spoiler) not appropriate, and how exactly are they overdefensive? This is happening as I'm reading Eph as probably scum! What would be more appropriate? Just asking Eph to elaborate hardly seems to cut it. And, above all, how exactly is this semantic reading into my response indicative of me being scum?

This seems to be a tone-read, not a case.

Spoiler: bbninjas says

@Ephemera, I think you need to either drop this list, or get legitimate reasons for pushing one of the people on it. No one else can have legitimate reasons for thinking there's scum in vom/cel/bb/mega because no one actually knows your alignment. If you're town then you need to work outside of your "I'm town" paradigm and find something that is actually persuasive. If you're scum then keep doing what you're doing because no one is going to buy this.

 

[bbninjas]

##VOTE: Megapod
You piggy-backed on my case on Eph, you piggy-backed on Eph's case on Celever, and now you're piggy-backing on scattered mind's points on me.

This is despite there being a second part of your case on me (regarding my progression on the Celever wagon), which I had addressed but scattered had not.

You aren't taking ownership of your own cases or votes, and that's a classic scum "fly-under-the-radar" move.

 

[Ephemera]

but... the same thing was said about you..what is the difference?

don't know if this is a derp or not (honestly probably not) but i can see a few differences between Cel's approach and Amici's.

Normally this is the part where I'd wait for the person with the case in question to explain to see the actual thoughts and try to read into that, but Cel's confirmed town, so I'm pretty sure he wouldn't be lying about his Amici case, even if it's posted after my thoughts on it.

Amici over D1 felt more active than cel. She was in the thread much more, maybe not posting much more than cel, but her presence was there. Just... not much posts.

If I were to build a case on amici, that would probably be the start – sorta activelurking, so to speak.

Basically Cel was like, really not in the thread, while Amici seemed like someone who was in thread but in reality wasn't as much.

I don't know if I scumread Amici yet. Been busy, but for sure i'm gonna reread the game.

Some thoughts re: Mega

Being flip-floppy isn't necessarily scum. I'll have to check if he believed the cases he was on.

scattered/mega interaction is interesting. Will check that while i read, there's something to be found there.

 

[JadeGemTM]

Re: your iso @Jadethepokemontrainer, it seems very one-sided and very easy to rebuttal. I can think of many different posts from Amici where she made commitments to reads and interesting observations about the gamestate. These include: how did I approach the Eph wagon versus how did Vom approached the wagon, justification regarding his vote on Cel, about who he thinks is town core versus scumcore, about lim-a-lurker. What Amici hasn't done is introduce a thought or an idea or a case that caused discussion or helped solved anything; I think this is where you were trying to go with your ISO, in which case that is worthy of FoS. What I expect from @Amici is a case or strong reads from their reread of Day 1 with Celever=town in mind.

That is exactly what I was trying to say, lol. And yes, I'm waiting to hear what Amici finds right now, I hope that comes soon.

I'll plan on ISOing Mega as soon as I get the chance (sometime today). I recall a lot of echoing, but I'd like to double check on that.

 

[bbninjas]

It's piggybacking not flip-flopping. Piggybacking is echoing mixed with a lack of progression and a lack of solving.

Case: Megapod is piggy-backing

What is piggybacking?
Piggybacking is where you rely on other people's cases, and other people's responses to defenses, instead of producing independent thought of your own. Often piggybackers will jump on to someone else's wagon and start to push and pressure that wagon as if it's they had agreed with it all along (i.e. quite suddenly). This makes them look like they're contributing, but if you look closer, you'll notice that pressure is quite minor and unsubstantial.

Do town or scum piggyback, or both?
Scum piggyback when the town is killing each other, so they let them do their own thing while saying just enough to appear like they're contributing. Town don't usually piggyback because they're more suspicious of others, and they tend to only partially agree with other people's reads / logic as they already have their own.

ISO:
Skipping Mega's first post as it's pure RVS. Starting from the second:

Hello there, Eph! I also think this might be our first game together.

a lot of neutral reads mostly, though I like Vom’s responses so far. Amici has made some good points too I think, though nothing that nails down alignment yet (but that’s D1 for ya). I suppose the chaotic thing is just something you do, so I can look past that, though I’m not sure what makes you think Celever sounds stilted. No amazing contributions yet maybe, but I don’t quite see a stilted tone. Then again I’m not around y’all as much as you are each other.

A fairly typical second post. Neutral reads, not particularly committed; this is normal for both alignments so early in the day.

interesting. It seems that we got a different conclusion from the same interaction.

@MegaPod_781 - what do you think?

After looking over Eph and Amici’s initial interaction again, I think it’s unlikely they’re both Mafia, though it’s possible one of them may be. Their initial interactions just seemed like jokeposts, so nothing too bad there, and then Ami makes that post about how we need to be careful with our eliminations and that the Firefighter should avoid claiming if at all possible; again, good points, but not completely alignment indicative. And after that Eph describes Ami as “locktown.” Naive trust or pocketing attempt by Eph? Possibly.

I am liking the points bbninjas is raising and would like to see Vom and Eph’s responses to them.

At first glance, this post seems like some good contribution on the Eph x Amici lock-town interaction from early Day 1. But take a look again:

Spoiler

interesting. It seems that we got a different conclusion from the same interaction.

@MegaPod_781 - what do you think?

After looking over Eph and Amici’s initial interaction again, I think it’s unlikely they’re both Mafia, though it’s possible one of them may be. Their initial interactions just seemed like jokeposts, so nothing too bad there, and then Ami makes that post about how we need to be careful with our eliminations and that the Firefighter should avoid claiming if at all possible; again, good points, but not completely alignment indicative. And after that Eph describes Ami as “locktown.” Naive trust or pocketing attempt by Eph? Possibly.

I am liking the points bbninjas is raising and would like to see Vom and Eph’s responses to them.

Most of this post is actually just a recap of the Eph x Amici interaction (see purple)! The actual analysis is just Mega saying "it's possible" or "it's not indicative". He then agrees with me, and says he'll wait for others to talk more. Where's the solving?

Holy heck, this post editor. Is anyone else unable to copy/paste quote blocks here on mobile?

Thats a bit strange cause the points bbninjas is raising contradict your thought about amici and eph unlikely being on the same alliance. After eph responded, what are you leaning to more?

Well, it was more the questions bb was asking that caught my eye, like the one where he asks Eph about reading Vom’s posts based on Vom’s reading of Eph. But looking back, I’m not seeing where bbninjas contradicts my own thought about the Eph/Ami reaction?

Very skeptical of Eph’s townread on Amici after reading back.

Amici townreads Eph and bang, Eph townreads right back. Coincidence? I think not. Scum always want to return the favour (I.e. townread people who townread them) because that gets that player on their good side. Scum want to make friends ASAP - more friends, more likely you’ll survive the day 1 lynch. Eph’s reasons for a townread could be applied to anyone here (tone? is sensible? the right amount of s***posting? No one has been not sensible and tone is vague and non-descript, anyone could have a “good” tone). Eph would’ve townread the first person to townread them - and Amici was just the lucky one who did it first.

Or at least so it seems. @Eph It doesn’t look like you’re trying to find scum, it looks like you’re just trying to make friends

According to this post, bbninjas seemed to read it as a mafia/town interaction, so I’m not sure where you’re getting the whole contradictory idea. But of course, I don’t see anything wrong about agreeing with bb’s questions if he didn’t read their interaction the same way I did. Players can agree on some points and have varying views on other, no?

As for Eph’s assessment of my post: I understand where he’s coming from, and he’s not wrong that I haven’t given a confident theory yet. At this stage in the game, I’m not sure of what to believe, but I can at least put my ideas out there, and maybe try to do a better job of pressing people for info (the latter was never really my strong suit tbh).

I think posting my own list of leans will be useful.

Vom
bbninjas
Scattered mind

I lean slightly town on these three players so far. They all seem to be asking good questions to get reads or clarify info.

Amici
Fiery Lugia
jade
Celever

These players I read completely null at the moment, because either there’s not enough posts from them to go on, or the ones there are aren’t totally alignment indicative.

Eph

I was feeling a bit conflicted on him. The “town lock” on Amici was rather odd, but Eph did seem to be making genuine assessments of other players since then. But yeah, that comment about discussing other people besides him seems quite defensive. Especially since other people were being discussed in addition to him. I was actually starting to think Eph’s behavior wasn’t worth pursuing with a vote yet, but wanting to shift attention off himself is a red flag.

##UNMOCK: bbninjas
##PRESSXTODOUBT: Ephemera

When will @Celever and @Fiery_Lugia come to provide some thoughts on the game? I was actually gonna pressure vote Celever for dropping off the radar in this post if I didn’t hit “refresh” and see that suspish play by Eph.

The blue is fairly NAI (Mega's just explaining himself). Yellow is interesting as it seems to indicate that Mega is already pressuring people (he wants "do a better job"), yet we haven't seen any pressure in Mega's previous post. Hm. Green throws attention to the lurkers, which is a bit scummy but not awful. Take note of Mega's readlist - it'll be important for later on.

The red is our first piggyback. The "genuine assessment" idea seems to be original - I couldn't find a source for that. The "defensive" idea is taken directly from my post that Mega quoted. The"other people were discussed" adds to this idea, but it's unclear how it's actually relevant. The "wanting to shift attention" idea is taken directly from this Vom post. Interestingly, the ideas that support Mega's vote come from other people, and Mega disregards his own idea ("genuine assessment"). A little odd, but nothing outlandish.

(also can I just say I love the activity this game it's only D1 and we're only two pages away from being longer than last game)

some questions to spark even more activity

@MegaPod_781 what do you think of Cel?
@Jadethepokemontrainer what do you think of bb?

Tbh, I do see the points you raise against Celever. Saying he’d been preparing a quote wall but having almost no thoughts to share does look rather suspicious. And then looking closer at his reason for “spiritually voting” you, his comment about you “not solving” seems odd to me. I’m still wary of you for the whole attention-shifting thing, buuut I don’t think you’ve been short on questioning and judging other players, so in all fairness I think his reason for keeping a vote on you is, uh, lazy and wrong. So, I’ll go ahead and do what I was gonna do earlier, because you two have sorta swapped places on my leans list after some thought :v

##UNPRESSX: Ephemera
##INSERTCLEVERVERBHERE: Celever

The next post is where things get strange. Mega votes Cel. Interestingly, there's no original reason for voting Cel here - Mega is relying entirely on reasons proposed by Eph. Even that point about "not solving" can be traced back to Eph. But hold up! Wasn't Eph scummy? Why does Mega trust Eph enough to vote entirely based on their logic? Mega says in that post that Eph and Cel have swapped places on his read list:

Vom
bbninjas
Scattered mind

Amici
Fiery Lugia
jade
Eph

Celever

Eph is still Mega's second scummiest player. Shouldn't Mega be more suspicious of Eph? Why is Mega so quick to piggyback on a case from the person they were just voting? The progression makes no sense.

Dang, I might’ve been able to show up for EOD but I had a dentist appointment around then. Welp.

Tbh, despite their chaotic start, I’m reading Eph as pretty genuine and rational now, and admittedly, their case on bbninjas is making a lot of sense to me. I didn’t even catch the total 180 bb had made on the Celever wagon, which makes me trust Eph more for finding and pointing that out.

Reading back a bit, there are also some other details I found a bit off about bb that I probably overlooked earlier because he’d been so vocal. For instance, this response he made to Vom for suggesting the Cel wagon:

I was providing some shoddy reasoning to Eph to see what they would do with it, and I'm very glad that you noticed how bad it is, because Eph didn't seem to notice.

So, he didn’t mean it seriously in the first place? I’m not sure about buying that.

Please. Stop. Talking. About. The. Four.

Find evidence please. Your evidence on me has so far constituted of I don't like his tone and I've felt he is off. You better be scum because you're running a very persistent smear campaign on me right now >.>

Celever needs to show what posts he was planning on multi-quoting, because I'm starting wonder if that's a lie...

From what I could tell, Eph wasn’t running a “smear campaign” on bb at all, so this actually seems pretty defensive looking back. Oh, and look, an insinuation that Cel was lying. Despite bb’s later opposition to the Cel wagon. Hm.

Also, minor nitpick, but I don’t think a Townie usually wants fellow players to “stop talking” about game related stuff, since discussion is kinda what we do to figure out the game :v

The Celever seems to waste one of our very few eliminations on someone who won’t provide much info if they flip town

And this tidbit about how he doesn’t like the Cel wagon he suggested.

##BYEBYENEXT?: bbninjas

[...] Something came up tonight and so I had to stop writing this post - but here's part of it out of interest.

 

[bbninjas]

to be clear ^ I meant to write more for the above post, but something came up tonight, it's now very late for me, and so I've just posted it as is.

tl;dr is that Mega tends to piggyback, and his progression doesn't seem to make sense for town. He moved from voting to Eph to voting Cel based on reasons given by Eph, all while still reading Eph as second scummiest.

What I was going to point out with his case on me was that it was a) predominantly sourced from Eph's original case on me and b) despite me having defended against Mega's the claim about Celever during this day (which seems to be a crucial part to Mega's vote on me), Mega did not end up addressing this defense in his recent post. Instead he just agreed with scattered, and gave very little contribution of his own; demonstrating very little solving.

 

[Amici]

From my backread of day 1 with cel town in mind
FL's vote seems rather oppurnistic
Mega is no longer in my town core (was mainly basing this off of cel/mega scum team was a gut shot I was willing to go with)
BB is net neutral, some things looks a tad worse but a lot of things seem better. Still in my personal town core
Ephe looks terribad. Since Cel=Town is a thing im willing to bet Ephe is scum
In fact
##MURDERIZE:Ephe
Jade on the back read sorta just oozies towniness, A lot of the stuff they've said I dont think comes from a scum POV
SM is forgettable but not horrible.
Vom is eh, not to high on them.
Town Core
Me/BB/Jade
PoE
Ephe/SM/Vom/Mega

I would personally murderize in this order (assuming Ephe flips scum)
Ephe>Mega>SM>Vom

 

[Ephemera]

From my backread of day 1 with cel town in mind
FL's vote seems rather oppurnistic
Mega is no longer in my town core (was mainly basing this off of cel/mega scum team was a gut shot I was willing to go with)
BB is net neutral, some things looks a tad worse but a lot of things seem better. Still in my personal town core
Ephe looks terribad. Since Cel=Town is a thing im willing to bet Ephe is scum
In fact
##MURDERIZE:Ephe
Jade on the back read sorta just oozies towniness, A lot of the stuff they've said I dont think comes from a scum POV
SM is forgettable but not horrible.
Vom is eh, not to high on them.
Town Core
Me/BB/Jade
PoE
Ephe/SM/Vom/Mega

I would personally murderize in this order (assuming Ephe flips scum)
Ephe>Mega>SM>Vom

oh uh
this is a thing?

why do I look terribad?

i don't like putting the "net neutral" in towncore, this is a weird post in general.

i now have free time to construct and post my walls here we go

 

[Ephemera]

by the way I now have a lot less free time for this game, so my D1 100-posting is probably a one-time thing.

bb analysis coming, as well as reevaluation. it could take a while but it will come at least 18 hours before EoD (rough estimate)

 

[Vom]

Alright, all caught up. Once again apologies but the weekend was really busy for me. Also at this point in time I am fully convinced I know what I'm talking about but this is all after/during an all nighter soooo.

Also @scattered mind re-reading I can't quite put my finger on it, it's more the general feel. He seems more aggressive than usual, and uses 'I' statements more in a way that puts him, like, above the rest. I'm liking this (referring to Amici, who he seems to give a lot of credit to despite completely disagreeing with Ephe reading them town) is an example, as it puts him in a position where he is able to objectively judge gameplay and puts us in a position where his approval matters.

@scattered mind this is the post I was referring to about bb.

So, he didn’t mean it seriously in the first place? I’m not sure about buying that.

Why not? Does it fit your agenda better? I think there are enough examples in the thread to show the difference between bbninjas actually making a case and pursuing an elimination and what he said happened with Cel.

EoD Cel wagon:
5: Amici, Mega, Jade, scattered mind, lily

I would like to point out scattered joined this wagon pretty late in the day despite making arguably better cases on both Lily and Jade. And now he's gunning for bb for...reasons?

I went over Fiery's ISO overnight and it seems they are at least seemingly making an effort.

You seem like you're making an effort. I don't think Lily has even 10 posts out of the hundreds in the thread. And while quantity does not mean quality, I think we can all agree her posts have been lacking in that department.

but... the same thing was said about you..what is the difference?

The difference is that Celever is literally confo-town.

i just wanted to make a vote in time, and he already had the most number of votes, so i panic-voted him

Ok, you're now and it's understandable, but what do you think now that we know Celever is town?

My cases on lily and jade are in this post for anyone who asked.

So why was Celever the better option over either of these? I personally think Jade is town but I wanna know your reasoning, especially since you made these cases and then voted Celever kinda out of nowhere.

Here are all the posts from #120 to #173 where Ephemera threw suspicion on either me or the four. This should show pretty clearly why I responded in the way I did.

I have excluded posts where Eph was asked to talk more about me or the four (that would misconstrue the numbers). The last quote (#176) is where I defend myself against these suspicions for the first time. Red for emphasis.

*snip*

And finally I respond:

To say I had no need to defend myself? To say my response is unwarranted? I think it is very clear that I was repeatedly and consistently having suspicion thrown my way without any particular evidence to back it up. I actually waited for Eph to bring out some case on me so that I could respond, and it had not. happened. It instead got worse.

@scattered mind @MegaPod_781. To say that I was being too defensive is ridiculous.

Maybe you weren't then, but I think you are being now - especially since you call the accusation "ridiculous". If it's so senseless, wouldn't it just go away after a simple dismissal? Wouldn't people just realize and move on? Did you really need to make wallposts about it?

Yeah, basically what scattered said. I can see why you’d think that Eph had been throwing shade in your general direction (plus mine and Vom’s and Cel’s), but even out of the red quotes most focused on you specifically, Eph’s position on you being scum seemed iffy at best, nowhere near as aggressive as a “very persistent smear campaign,” as you put it, would seem to imply...

Persistent means just that - persistent. Aggressive and persistent do not mean the same thing at all. They are not mutually exclusive, but they are not synonyms either. You know this.

BB is net neutral, some things looks a tad worse but a lot of things seem better. Still in my personal town core

Ok, so bb is neutral for you, but is in your town core? Does that...make sense to you?

Ephe looks terribad.

How come? I actually read them more towny now.

That's it for the questions/stuff for now, thoughts to follow because this post is big enough already lol.

 

[Vom]

Thoughts™:

• Ephemera has moved up in my rainbow, in part due to bb's points, and because now that they have stopped dedicating their time to defense it's nice to see posts about the game instead of about themselves.
  
• I don't think MegaPod and bb are both scum. I think one of them might be because how they are interacting, but bb jumped the gun and actually made a valid point against MegaPod so I wanna hold off and see how Mega responds.
• Jade is leaning town, but less now that the promised ISO on Mega (who also I don't think has 10 posts) is nowhere to be found. And because I know someone is gonna go like, "but vom, Mega had more posts! check your facts!" that's not the point. The point is that Mega has nowhere near the amount of posts of say, Ephemera, and an ISO on them should really not take that long to do.
  
• lily is...interesting. On the one hand, she's new and so there's some wiggle room, but how much is too much? If we just give her the new player pass for everything we will never get anywhere with her. town!lily will not contribute, and scum!lily will just slip under the radar completely. The only person with less posts than her would be Cel - and I'm not even sure anymore after his resurgence after being called out.
  
• scattered and amici giving lily the new player pass is eh. scattered less so since he did make a point about that, but still deemed Celever a more worthy elimination. Amici tries to defend her saying she's making an effort, but I don't see it. She's popped in to answer specific questions explicitly directed at her (not detailed answers at that) and subsequently disappeared. scattered at least brought it up a little, but Amici straight up defended her lurking. FoS on both, but for Lily herself I don't think we have enough evidence to label her as either alignment.
  
• Glad to see Amici is chiming in more, be good to get more content not related to Ephe/amici interactions.
• I don't think bb was being overly defensive about Ephe, but he definitely is now. Still, I think only one of Mega and bb is scum (if any) and atm I'm leaning towards scum!Mega so I'm not sure what to make of this yet. Like I said, I want to see @MegaPod_781 's response first.
  
• I don't get what scattered is doing right now. He says he made two different cases on D1, but didn't pursue either in favour of a lurker lim, which at this point scattered obviously hasn't had time to answer because that post just went up, so we'll have to wait for that. Now, he's going for bbninjas, once again completely ditching both his cases, not bothering to purse either one at all despite some nudging from my part to talk more about Lily, one of his original cases. scattered has in general ignored or just meh'd nudging attempts from other players, so in short: ##NOTCOLDCASESYET: scattered mind

 

[Ephemera]

okay, vom's reentry today is 100% town. This read I can be extremely confident in.

mindmelded hard with the bb/mega interactions, imo there's likely to be one wolf there, but not two. Same for the Jade point – did he say he'd make an ISO?

scattered's EoD was pretty bad yeah, but honestly I think that's more from town. Town!scattered sees two large wagons near EoD, me and cel, and decides to make his vote matter and go for the one which is not as bad in his opinion. If scattered were scum here I think he just plants a meaningless vote on jade/amici, which wouldn't have gotten enough traction anyhow.

The only way I can see scattered being scum with that vote is if he's scum with amici, which I doubt is the case.

I was actually busy today for the right reasons (when real life is the thing interfering with mafia lmao) so I didn't get much progress on rereading, quite sorry about that.
I will make our last IRL day of D2 count though.

In the meantime, I still believe in my bb case from yesterday – bb's D2 is somewhat better but I'll have to see if that really is enough to change the whole point of my case.
##ISO: bbninjas

vom is very town
scattered is pretty town
jade is still town, i think
amici/lily nulls
mega/bb PoE

cel is confotown. @Celever any thoughts on your wagon, anyone on there who was weirdly voting there (in a scummy way)?
(example of weird vote that screams town is scattered's btw – town makes that move much more than scum does with v/v wagons)

also i'm gonna bet that one of me/vom got primed last night. it doesn't make a difference but i want cred for postgame.

 

[Ephemera]

I'll go a little more in-depth on my scattered read, it's worth explaining.

When scattered voted Cel the main wagons were really me vs Cel. I think town scattered makes this vote a lot more than scum scattered – with v/v wagons, it's very easy to plant a meaningless vote on amici/jade, and that looks pretty good in hindsight as scum. Thus, voting cel to make his vote matter makes me strongly read scattered as town – even without my perspective knowing that I'm town, making his vote matter is a good look.

I guess his pushes weren't too strong D1, but I still think that's town.

As for ditching his cases today in favor of pursuing bb, i think that's just reevaluating town here. It doesn't look great to drop his cases but I think what's more telling is that scattered doesn't care about that – he doesn't care about his image, which is pretty town to me.

Basically scattered made his vote matter, is reevaluating, and is doing stuff regardless of how others might see or read him as. Second strongest townread for sure.

@Vom what do you think of my point on scattered?

 

[Ephemera]

Again, only way I can see scattered as scum here is with amici, which could potentially explain why he didn't vote there, since cel expressed interest in that wagon – couldn't have a wolf become a wagon when there are two good town wagons already, something like that. Don't think it's likely, especially since suspicion on amici wasn't too major until scattered entered thread.

Basically, scattered is town.