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Discussion in 'Forum Games' started by NinjaPenguin, Jul 9, 2020.
also not reading me as town. He voted me.
Sorry for disappearing; I had a busy day yesterday, and I'm gonna have to take another few hours off in a sec. I'll be back by the end of the IRL day, reread the thread, and hopefully be able to solidify my reads more by that point.
I skimmed the last few pages (so haven't read the quotes bb pulled out for Eph and scattered in great detail) but my inclination is still that scattered is the most likely scum based on his having essentially ignored Amici from page 14 till mid-D3, despite her supposedly being one of his top scumreads. Here's the last post where I brought that up, which he still hasn't responded to:
No idea what to make of Eph right now; none of the things they've done are unexplainable as town, but many of them are at least somewhat scummy, especially from an experienced player. I'll look into the quotes bb pulled before I go back into the rest of the thread later.
I don't think there's much chance of bb or Vom being scum, but it's fair to consider under the assumption we're in MYLO. Every post of bb's and Vom's since I subbed in I've gone into with the assumption that they're likely town based on the Mega elim, and I think that probably colors my memory of those posts to a pretty significant degree. I know I keep going back to "I'll read the thread later" and, genuinely, I'm so sorry to have gone MIA yesterday and not to have gotten on my reread yet, but I can't offer much better right now, and the one thing I super don't want to do is base reads off of inaccurate memories of how things went down.
please show where I state amici is one of my top scumreads. I don’t remember saying that. In general I feel like you are twisting this point a bit. I will reread your posts to see if that’s true. Not pursuing a case is scummy only if you don’t have other cases in mind which I had all along so I still don’t understand why this is scummy.
Also from your point of view, what was I suppose to ask Amici more after stating that point? She was gone after short time and I didn’t have anything else to do other than wait for her to come back or looking into other players. Your case seems to be that I didn’t tunnel Amici? I had reads on other players and the fact that I agreed later on with Celever that amici is scummy is just me restating that I still see her as a valid option among others. When more points were raised against her I naturally agreed and simply reminded that I a made another point early on for reference. Which is the best I could do to pursue her without her playing the game.
Day 4: Vote Count 3scattered mind (1)-Jabberwock
Not Voting: Ephemera, Jadethepokemontrainer, scattered mind, Vom
If the day ended right now, the elimination would be randomly chosen between scattered mind and Vom. There are 23.5 hours remaining in the day.
Spoiler: Day 1
#20-Celever voted bbninjas
#23-Amici voted Celever
#27-Ephemera voted Celever
#30-Vom voted Fiery_Lugia
#32-Ephemera voted Vom
#41-Ephemera voted Ephemera
#42-Ephemera voted Vom
#47-Vom voted Ephemera
#51-Jadethepokemontrainer voted MegaPod_781
#55-Celever voted Ephemera
#81-MegaPod_781 voted bbninjas
#102-bbninjas voted Ephemera
#120-Ephemera voted bbninjas
#123-Ephemera voted MegaPod_781
#139-MegaPod_781 voted Ephemera
#151-Scattered mind voted Amici
#162-Ephemera voted Celever
#244-MegaPod_781 voted Celever
#249-Jadethepokemontrainer voted Celever
#268-scattered mind voted Fiery_Lugia
#276-Ephemera voted bbninjas
#288-scattered mind voted Celever
#297-Celever voted bbninjas
#302-Fiery_Lugia voted Celever
#304-Celever voted Amici
Spoiler: Day 2
#308-MegaPod_781 voted bbninjas
#320-scattered mind voted bbninjas
#348-bbninjas voted MegaPod_781
#353-Amici voted Ephemera
#357-Vom voted scattered mind
#358-Ephemera voted bbninjas
#390-Jadethepokemontrainer voted MegaPod_781
#392-Ephemera voted Amici
#395-Vom voted MegaPod_781
Spoiler: Day 3
#404-Vom voted scattered mind
#405-Ephemera voted Amici
#418-Jadethepokemontrainer voted Amici
#420-bbninjas voted Amici
#453-Jabberwock voted scattered mind
#454-Ephemera voted Jabberwock
#513-Ephemera voted bbninjas
#517-bbninjas voted Vom
#538-Ephemera unvoted bbninjas
If I'm missing any votes, please let me know. For the ease of making a votecount, it helps to bold votes if possible, but that is not required.
The following players have not posted in the past 24 hours and are being tagged (this isn't a warning or anything, just a reminder):
Just popping in to quickly ask...
I think the issue is that you didn’t continue to question or put pressure on Amici. For example, when I found Eph scummy but decided to stop tunneling them, I still continued to ask questions and put some pressure on them.
It sounds like you’re saying you didn’t ask questions or put pressure on Amici because they just weren’t around - but if iirc, Amici was around and fairly active at this time?
Nah it's not that you didn't tunnel her, it's that you dropped questioning her altogether. That's not something town does when they have a scumread. You asked her questions about something you found scummy, she responded, and then one of two things should have happened: either you accept her responses as valid, in which case she should no longer have been a scumread; or you don't, in which case you should have kept on that line of questioning. It's inherently anti-town to just file it away for later reference.
@bbninjas - I went back to more thoroughly read your vote analysis in #516; here's my thoughts before I go to re-read the whole thread.
I generally agree with your points on Eph. I've been wavering on them for a while because most of their scumtells are NAI if the player is less experienced, and I think it makes sense to chalk it up to trying out a new playstyle. The trouble is that it would make roughly equal sense for Eph-as-scum to play that way, and also to change their play the way they have since D1 if Mega was coaching them. That being said, "all their votes make sense from a town PoV, but not always from a scum PoV" is the sort of thing that would help to solidify that read. I'll double-check the posts you quoted when I re-read.
scattered buddying with Mega seems NAI. If he had towncred himself at the time, he could've been trying to boost Mega's by elevating his points in the eyes of the town.
Vom waiting for Mega's response also seems NAI. I'm actually not sure I understand why it's a classic scumtell; I feel like it assumes scum don't have outside communication.
Gonna eat dinner and then re-read \o/
So here's a weird observation: Jabber is being very diplomatic in his solving and is doing a very good job at not causing fights.
It's the dumbest scumtell ever - but scum desperately don't want to cause fights in this day phase because it is guaranteed to get them votes, while town technically won't care as much. Jabber was even diplomatic in how he corrected scattered who seems to have misunderstood the case on him. Town theoretically would get more frustrated when their top scumread is not addressing the crux of their case. So... is Jabber being over-diplomatic? Yay or nay?
Most of RVS seems NAI. Main thing I notice is that Eph had a ton of reads early on and kept maintaining a full readslist based on them. It seems weird for a townie to be confident enough in their reads to be able to draw up a rainbow every other page — only scum know everybody's alignment for 100% sure.
scattered refused to share his reads for a long time; #100 in particular I don't understand. If you don't have reads at all, that's one thing, but you need to have a pretty good reason for keeping reads back if you're town.
bb quoted this post in #516; I'lll add to his notes that I think Mega hinting at one of Eph and Amici being scum is a slight point in favor of Eph being town. With the hindsight knowledge that Mega's scum, it reads like he's trying to set up an elimination on one or both of them, and to single Eph out over Amici at the end is a weird thing to do if Eph were his scumbuddy.
I think bb meant to quote this post too but screwed up the formatting or something. It's actually an excellent bit of evidence in favor of Eph being town; easily the most definitive evidence either way on them so far. There's no reason whatsoever for Eph-as-scum to call Mega out like this.
I /don't/ agree with bb that this is a point in Eph's favor — in #516 he says he reckons that Mega was voting with intent to eliminate here, and I disagree with that. Mega covers his bases well by calling for two of his neutral reads to talk more; he must have known it would have been very easy for him to pivot off of Eph if need be. I think it's NAI. [Update from later in the thread — in #244 Mega does indeed pivot to Celever.]
This is an underrated point. scattered has consistently been cagey with his reads this game, and has never once actually offered a reason for being such.
Like, this post? You're talking like you're constructing your own version of the reality of the game and then seeing how it fits into what's actually happening. That's a scummy mindset.
And when you finally do give reads? You don't give any reasons for them. It's almost like you don't care about developing them; just being able to point to them if the game's events ever shift to match the scenario you constructed.
@scattered mind you never responded to this post. Was this a satisfactory response to post #155? (Everyone should go back and reread the first few posts after #150; I'm not quoting all of them but there's some more necessary context.)
Mild townie points for bb here and in the couple-of-posts' exchange that follows it. Scum has no reason to argue against eliminating a lurker, especially when everybody else seems in favor of it.
Fewer townie points for scattered here because bb's been vocally against the Celever elim for a page or two already.
Okay, what? You argue against lim-a-lurker in #180, and call the case on Celever weak in #267! Why would you vote him here?
In this post, scattered is responding to Celever, who said "Amici is a cool hot take wagon. Can we vote Amici." This is the first post of scattered's after voting Celever. I just don't understand this.
I said I'd come back to this (scattered agreeing with Mega) in my re-read because I wanted to see if there was any buddying history or otherwise context for it, and there isn't. Granted it's also too early in the Day for scattered to be trying to shift towncred onto Mega, but ultimately I think it's just NAI.
This post — and actually, the fact that he questioned bb for so long in general — is to scattered's credit. He gives legitimate reasoning and follows it up with a line of questioning; essentially the exact things I felt he was lacking when he voted Amici earlier.
He does undeniably buddy with Mega a lot in their case on bb, but I don't think that clears him any more than it condemns him; it's a classic case of WIFOM.
@bbninjas having reread the context, I disagree on this being the "classic bus" you made it out to be. Mega did respond to Vom after she said she'd wait for his response, and she didn't even comment on the strength of the response before voting him. I don't think Vom-as-scum had any reason at all to make this a hammer.
At this point I've caught up to about the point I entered. I'm leaning more toward Eph being town; the Mega vote is a legitimate source of significant towncred. scattered has made a lot of scummy plays and I feel pretty good about my vote being on him.
This is a good point. I think my analysis has changed again since I've tried to look broadly at the context of Eph's posts. It's probably futile, but I'm trying to not focus in on anything.
Sure, but do you have any scumtells on Jabber? Because I don't have many and it's hard to be confident in an elim when you don't have any scumtells.
I don't understand why you can't see this as scum!Jabber pocketing me? I think that's extremely likely if Jabber is scum because consistently agreeing with someone being treated as town is a great way to pocket that town.
I'm a little bit confused by this. Isn't your case on scattered that he "forgot" about Amici in Day 2? But here you're quoting scattered scumreading Amici in Day 3 (i.e "Obviously my vote goes to Amici"). While scattered did say that he was "first to read Amici as scum", this is talking about Day 1 not Day 2, and scattered doesn't seem to be calling Amici their "top" scumread here anyway.
I think you might be giving scum too much credit - they don't usually utilise their outside communication to orchestrate elaborate bus schemes, at least not on these forums. Either way, it's a scumtell because Mega either defends well (if so, don't bus) or he defends poorly (if so, Mega is a sinking ship and so he is worth bussing). Town who think a case is good don't need to wait.
Aside, I really don't think Mega would couch Eph - Eph's literally just played a championship game, and Mega's the one who's just returned to mafia. If anything it'd be the other way around.
I'm not sure I understand what this means. Am I just being diplomatic in general, or is there something specific you're talking about?
@Jabberwock In general I think you've been very diplomatic, but I'm specifically referring to #547 in how you deal with scattered.
Scattered (your top scumread) seemed to misunderstand you or even avoid addressing the crux of your case - which I think has happened multiple times today already - and you just happily correct him instead of frustratedly correct him.
Jabber's backread ISO is very very good. Eph points are great, scattered picks are even better. I find these the most persuasive:
Aside - I'm going to reassess my Vom vote as I'm pretty sure there's a few progressions that Vom + others have pointed out that don't make sense if this was a bus. I do want to check whether "Vom thought the case was good" before waiting.
Yeah I'm cognizant of the fact that I've been agreeing with you a lot, but that's just because you explain your reasoning and I generally agree with the points you make. Furthermore, after Jade you're closest to locktown, and I have no reason to suspect you of being scum, so I'm definitely not treating your posts with the same triple-checking as, say, Eph or scattered. Fwiw, I think I'm doing it with Vom and Jade, too.
My case is that he "forgot" about Amici in the interval between mid-D2 and the point where I asked him about his top scumread on D3. The relevance of the D3 quote is that he says "Obviously my vote goes to Amici" in direct response to my question "Who's your top scumread and why?", despite the fact that he hasn't talked about Amici since that point in D2.
Nah town still have a vested interest in waiting to hear out both sides of an argument because they don't want to miselim. Even thinking a case is good generally doesn't give you such a high level of certainty that you wouldn't care what the player had to say to defend themself. I see what you mean about how it would work for scum waiting to bus, but I don't think it's indicative.
That's fair; I thought Mega was more involved with PB Mafia than that.
I mean English isn't scattered's first language; I don't think there's any reason to get frustrated with him over what may well have been a misunderstanding. Yeah it's a bit annoying that I still don't have a direct answer to the question I asked, but I gave him the benefit of the doubt.
Obviously this only goes so far. @scattered mind I still want an answer to that question, and to as many of the points in my re-read as you have legitimate answers for.
In that case, wouldn't the fact that Mega flipped scum and there being prior discussion about Amici=scum in Day 3 be enough progression to explain scattered's comment? (that "obviously my vote goes to Amici")
Voting someone isn't going to get them eliminated, but it is going to make it harder to retract if Mega doesn't give a 5-star defense. I don't understand why Vom waited (to vote) and waited to pressure Mega further.
Theoretically yes, if that were how he explained it. But he didn't explain it; the only substance he gave to his hypothetical vote was the fact that he had previously called Amici out way back in D2.
That's a good point actually, I forgot that Mega wasn't at L-1 at the time. You might be onto something there.