Finished Mafia LXI: Forest Fire: Game Over!

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Scattered mind

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I don't think bb was being overly defensive about Ephe, but he definitely is now. Still, I think only one of Mega and bb is scum (if any) and atm I'm leaning towards scum!Mega so I'm not sure what to make of this yet. Like I said, I want to see @MegaPod_781 's response first.

@bbninjas - Can you explain this post to your theory of vom bussing mega?
 

Scattered mind

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I'll answer both questions while I'm commuting in a bit - but what's the context of that post again?

This is the last post vom made before voting mega over you. There is more there in that post. I just took that part - You used that post to show that Vom was waiting for a response from mega.
 

Scattered mind

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Things I noticed about Vom and in general:

a lot of neutral reads mostly, though I like Vom’s responses so far.

kinda weird to mention a scumbuddy like that even early on.

I am liking the points bbninjas is raising and would like to see Vom and Eph’s responses to them.

this is also kinda weird that Mega mentions Vom here about the points on eph made by bbninjas - it's like mega early on marks vom as a trustworthy player.

I think posting my own list of leans will be useful.


Vom
bbninjas
Scattered mind


I lean slightly town on these three players so far. They all seem to be asking good questions to get reads or clarify info.


Amici
Fiery Lugia
jade
Celever


These players I read completely null at the moment, because either there’s not enough posts from them to go on, or the ones there are aren’t totally alignment indicative.


Eph

Another weird thing how Vom was the highest on the list there being townie. But again it just seem to be the list of the 3 most active players at that time aside from Eph who he marked as scummy.

Also @scattered mind re-reading I can't quite put my finger on it, it's more the general feel. He seems more aggressive than usual, and uses 'I' statements more in a way that puts him, like, above the rest. "I'm liking this" (referring to Amici, who he seems to give a lot of credit to despite completely disagreeing with Ephe reading them town) is an example, as it puts him in a position where he is able to objectively judge gameplay and puts us in a position where his approval matters.

Forgot to respond to that - bit too late but, I don't see that as alignment indicative for bbninjas. I'm more interested about your point of him being more aggressive than usual. Do you still sense that he is like that now? Because for me it's hard to tell.
 

Scattered mind

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And also- that post where Mega votes Eph after making his readlist that early on means to me eph is most likely town. So by PoE- Jabber is kinda the only choice left unless bbninjas explains that vom case and convince me otherwise. There is also a case on bbninjas from Eph that I need to read but I don't quite get how bbninjas is scum. I thought almost everyone agreed that the bbninjas-mega interaction does not have 2 scums in it but only 1. That was something repeatedly said by eph iirc.

OK - just read it.. it seems like an emotional vote? @Ephemera do you really want to vote bbninjas for a valid reason? Because I don't quite understand the case.
 

bbninjas

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@scattered Do you think there are any flaws in my Eph analysis?

Vom as scum doesn't make sense- Vom had the option to jump on mega or your wagon and hammer- both options were valid - she chose to hammer Mega. Why would she do that?
This is definitely the shakiest part of the scenario. It depends on whether the options were actually valid. Mega’s defence was not very good, and so Vom could have gotten a lack of flack for hopping on to the bbn wagon instead of the Mega wagon. ie The bbn wagon was not valid at that point.

The other option is very WIFOMy - Vom bussed Mega intentionally for towncred, expecting that Mega would be lynched Day 3 after my flip. Remember that Eph was already doing a “bbn or Mega is scum”, so it was very likely that Mega would be lynched next. The question is: did Vom agree with Eph on this point? If Vom did before they said they wanted to wait, then this would suggest that Vom wasn’t “waiting” to decide on a bus. Scum Vom had either decided to bus before waiting for Mega (Then why wait?) or Vom is town.
 

Scattered mind

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Thoughts™:
  • Ephemera has moved up in my rainbow, in part due to bb's points, and because now that they have stopped dedicating their time to defense it's nice to see posts about the game instead of about themselves.
  • I don't think MegaPod and bb are both scum. I think one of them might be because how they are interacting, but bb jumped the gun and actually made a valid point against MegaPod so I wanna hold off and see how Mega responds.
  • Jade is leaning town, but less now that the promised ISO on Mega (who also I don't think has 10 posts) is nowhere to be found. And because I know someone is gonna go like, "but vom, Mega had more posts! check your facts!" that's not the point. The point is that Mega has nowhere near the amount of posts of say, Ephemera, and an ISO on them should really not take that long to do.
  • lily is...interesting. On the one hand, she's new and so there's some wiggle room, but how much is too much? If we just give her the new player pass for everything we will never get anywhere with her. town!lily will not contribute, and scum!lily will just slip under the radar completely. The only person with less posts than her would be Cel - and I'm not even sure anymore after his resurgence after being called out.
  • scattered and amici giving lily the new player pass is eh. scattered less so since he did make a point about that, but still deemed Celever a more worthy elimination. Amici tries to defend her saying she's making an effort, but I don't see it. She's popped in to answer specific questions explicitly directed at her (not detailed answers at that) and subsequently disappeared. scattered at least brought it up a little, but Amici straight up defended her lurking. FoS on both, but for Lily herself I don't think we have enough evidence to label her as either alignment.
  • Glad to see Amici is chiming in more, be good to get more content not related to Ephe/amici interactions.
  • I don't think bb was being overly defensive about Ephe, but he definitely is now. Still, I think only one of Mega and bb is scum (if any) and atm I'm leaning towards scum!Mega so I'm not sure what to make of this yet. Like I said, I want to see @MegaPod_781 's response first.
  • I don't get what scattered is doing right now. He says he made two different cases on D1, but didn't pursue either in favour of a lurker lim, which at this point scattered obviously hasn't had time to answer because that post just went up, so we'll have to wait for that. Now, he's going for bbninjas, once again completely ditching both his cases, not bothering to purse either one at all despite some nudging from my part to talk more about Lily, one of his original cases. scattered has in general ignored or just meh'd nudging attempts from other players, so in short: ##NOTCOLDCASESYET: scattered mind

Thats the full post
 

Scattered mind

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This is definitely the shakiest part of the scenario. It depends on whether the options were actually valid. Mega’s defence was not very good, and so Vom could have gotten a lack of flack for hopping on to the bbn wagon instead of the Mega wagon. ie The bbn wagon was not valid at that point.

Vom made the bbn wagon invalid by stating 2 things - that mega is leaning more scummy and by saying that she doesn't see you being overdefensive. Meaning that she could easily make the bbn wagon valid. Because those points were stated long before Mega's response.
 

bbninjas

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@scattered About those weird things you pointed out about Vom and Mega, do you think they indicate Vom as townie or scumbuddy?

Re: Eph, I do think Eph’s case on me is emotional - the issue is that they think they were solving on Day 4 but I think they had not been solving on Day 4 until their very recent posts. More generally, I’ve just put a lot of pressure on Eph this game and so they’re probably sick of that as well.
 

bbninjas

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Vom is looking much better than. (Why wait to bus?)

Vom made the bbn wagon invalid by stating 2 things - that mega is leaning more scummy and by saying that she doesn't see you being overdefensive. Meaning that she could easily make the bbn wagon valid. Because those points were stated long before Mega's response.
I’m not quite understanding - are you saying Vom made the bbn wagon invalid, but could easily turn it valid again? Cause I’m not following in that case.
 

Scattered mind

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@scattered About those weird things you pointed out about Vom and Mega, do you think they indicate Vom as townie or scumbuddy?

the first one indicates townie and the other 2 are points that are strange- they could be scummy if Mega unawarly showed that he trusts Vom without Vom being confo town, But it could be a form of pocketing Vom. To make him closer to her.
 

Scattered mind

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Vom is looking much better than. (Why wait to bus?)


I’m not quite understanding - are you saying Vom made the bbn wagon invalid, but could easily turn it valid again? Cause I’m not following in that case.

You said that there are 2 possible explanations and I commented on the first explanation you gave- that vom thought that the bbninjas case was seen as invalid compared to Mega and that she had no choice but to bus him. I said that this is not probable, since both cases were valid and if anything- the bbn wagon kinda became less valid because of Vom's post about it. Vom was the one who voiced her disagreement with the case on you being overly defensive.
 

Scattered mind

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naive trust or pocketing attempt... possibly..

hmm apparently eph already said what I said about Mega and Vom interaction?

@bbninjas - Main flaw of your eph analysis is that it keeps changing. It seems like eph is doing certain scummy things and certain townie things and your read depends on what you focus on more.
 

Vom

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However, I am a little perturbed that Vom wanted to hold out for Mega's response before committing to a Mega or bbn wagon. This is a classic tactic for scum tossing up whether to bus their buddy. If Mega's defence is convincing, then scum!Vom doesn't need to bus. But if Mega messes up their defense, then bussing means Vom can get easy towncred off a sinking ship.
scattered's already addressed some of this, but I want to add a couple things: in post #356 (i.e. the post directly before the post you quoted where I say I'd wait for Mega) I actually call him out for a couple things on his posts, and, more importantly, throw shade by literally saying he has an agenda. This, in addition to the other point made in that post, would be what I was waiting for. Besides, it's not like I only waited for Mega before voting him, I also waited for you in another instance - post #190, where Ephemera asks me what I think of you but I wait before voting.
- scattered is townier.
Townier than Jabber? Or townier than people think? or at least than I think, since I seem to be the only person to not totally townread him
Eph doesn't look as good in this backpedal from Mega, purely because Mega's reasons are very weak (he's switching votes because... Eph's been posting reads?). I wonder why Mega didn't just stay on the Eph wagon when it's clearly better to eliminate town!Eph than town!Cel? It's possible that there was pressure being put on Eph voters from a few people, and with the Eph wagon losing steam, Mega might have decided it's in his best interest to jump ship. I'll check later if noone else does.
I think it was more about the steam the Cel wagon was gaining - perhaps he didn't want to draw attention by staying on Ephe? Though knowing he was scum I don't see why not just stay on Ephe and distance himself from the Cel flip, which he knew was gonna be town.
Mega's started to get very defensive of Eph here. He even went out of his way to explain that Eph is trustworthy, and I don't quite understand what Mega's trying to achieve here if Eph is town. This could easily be scumbuddying, but it's also likely that Mega wants to explain why they're getting Eph's case on me. i.e. Mega's doing some self-pres, so that they don't get voted for having poor progression.
Probably just to justify going after you, yeah.
Why would scum!scattered immediately link themselves to a scumbuddy knowing that I'd flip town, putting scrutiny on both himself and his scumbuddy?
I had something about asking the right question regarding this, but I seem to have forgotten in the process of compiling and writing this post.
Forgot to respond to that - bit too late but, I don't see that as alignment indicative for bbninjas. I'm more interested about your point of him being more aggressive than usual. Do you still sense that he is like that now? Because for me it's hard to tell.
I think right now he's just solving, but earlier on he definitely was playing more aggressive.
 

Vom

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I actually agree with this. Whether you are scum or town, I'm pretty sure you have at least one scum vote on you.
Also not to be that person, but totally called it. *high fives Ephemera*
 

Ephemera

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Also not to be that person, but totally called it. *high fives Ephemera*

*high fives back*

I'm back, and have cooled off a little. Still think I may have been playing too much mafia lately (although if something happens that I'm specifically waiting for, I won't say no :p )

...and I will now proceed to ghost the thread a little due to IRL stuff plus backreading. Oh, and sleep. That's a thing too.

Fortunately or unfortunately, besides the spirit-breaking tunnel on me, bb's very likely town. ##UNVOTE: bbninjas
...just would really appreciate not being accused of not solving while in the middle of my backread :p

I still think Vom/Jade are locktown. Jade's the firefighter, but also neither of them needed to get on Mega – I'll check on D2 if it makes other kinds of sense for scum!Vom to jump on a Mega bus, but if she did want to bus Mega for towncred, Day 3 would have been a prime time to do so, not D2. This logic also slightly applies to bb but not as much for reasons I've already stated – the pressure on bb D2 could have made a bb/mega scumteam devise a mutual bus situation. Still believe it could have been saved for D3 though.

Re: Jabber (this is directed at bb)
While Jabber's posts have been pretty solving and high-effort, this (as I've said earlier) is unfortunately not a reason to townread him. Scum subbing in at this phase would be solving on their own, and naturally their posts would need to be high-effort to construct a realistic, believable world (that's wrong) in order to push the miselims a hypothetical scum!Jabber would need.

What does strike me a little as town is the interactions between bb/jabber. Pretty friendly, finding each other town pretty quickly upon Jabber's sub in.
Like I've said, if there were two scum left I'd suspect you two of being buddies, but there's only one left, hence this is obviously wrong.
So what does this interaction look like then?

Given the one scum left, it's either two townies who have found each other, or scum trying to pocket or buddy up to town – and in this interaction I can't see scum!Jabber buddying up with bb. In fact, the reverse is honestly much more plausible.

Thus I believe the interaction here is either v/v, or v!Jabber and w!bb.

Hm. Will need to think about this.

Continuing backread now.
 
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