Finished Mafia LXI: Forest Fire: Game Over!

Discussion in 'Forum Games' started by NinjaPenguin, Jul 9, 2020.

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  1. Vom Shocking Puns
    Vom

    Forum Mod Member

    It does, but that's a win-win for us. This is of course assuming we don't mislim and lose the game - there is always the chance someone we eliminated was primed pre or post elimination. That gives me a (possibly terrible) idea but I have to run some numbers first...

    ...actually, nevermind claiming @Jadethepokemontrainer. I thought I was doing something really smart but writing out an explanation I realized that getting Jade to reveal his targets would only tell scum if they need to extend the game or not, since if Jade got someone right and they just ignite scum auto-loses. Yikes.
    I've brought it up because it's not a tell - I don't want people throwing suspicion where there shouldn't be, akk I'm doing there is clarifying it's just an observation. As for the last bit, are you saying I shouldn't be looking closer at Jabber's posts? The person who just subbed in for the most impossible to read slot in the game?
    Again, not throwing suspicion. My point was not that you are scummy, but that you - or anyone really - shouldn't be considered locktown unless actually cleared.
     


  2. Vom Shocking Puns
    Vom

    Forum Mod Member

    Oh, I almost forgot about my idea. It's a gamble, but it's better than just losing if nothing comes up. Earlier, when I talked about assuming no one primed targets were eliminated, I wondered what if we did this on purpose, retroactively? i.e. eliminating someone we think has been primed by scum.

    If it works, we deny scum having majority post-ignition, since that person would effectively be removed from the game twice, instead of two different people (a mislim and the person who was gonna die anyways). If it doesn't work, well, we lose the game, but if we attempt this at all that means we had no better odds so we'd have lost the game anyway.

    *Fire Emblem voice* Allow me to demonstrate!

    For this example, I'll use me, because I know I'm town and I could see scum thinking I'm annoying and trying to prime me at some point.

    There are 6 of us right now, and it's Day 4. Assuming all primed targets are still alive, and all priming went through successfully, that means 3 people are ripe for ignition right now. If we were to eliminate a town player who hasn't been primed, that leaves 5 people, and after the ignition that only leaves 2, and we lose.

    However, if we eliminate a town player who has been primed, that leaves 5 people, but 3 post-ignition - two town and one scum, making PoE incredibly easy.

    Now before you throw me out the window, think about it - I don't think any of us has anything solid on anyone as of this post. We would have to be really sure (though that also goes for the scum lim, which odds do you like better?) and we'd have to come to a decision, but I think everyone should mention at least one reason why they would like to be eliminated (or not) for this.

    I'll go first: I'm totally down for eliminating myself for this. I'm fairly sure one there has been a priming attempt on me at some point, because I have been popping in and out putting pressure where I think there needs to be, and really I'd like to think I'm at least somewhat threatening to the scum team - or its remain, anyway. Besides, it's my idea, and no one would even think about it if I didn't volunteer.

    ...not that me volunteering ensures consideration, but at least it shows I'm serious about this and not just scum trying to mislead the town into a loss.
     
  3. Vom Shocking Puns
    Vom

    Forum Mod Member

    Not in particular, but if you read through it you saw the gradual decline in pressure from my part so you know it's around there. How do they remain relevant? Have you seen anything recently that draws your attention? Just a reminder that that happened in the midst of D1 chaos.
    That's fair, I myself didn't object to it, but I don't think giving a percentage strengthens the case on him. If anything, I'd say it's actually uncharacteristic of him to go that hard (or really to just tunnel) on someone, especially after complaining that I tunneled Ephe D1.
     
  4. Vom Shocking Puns
    Vom

    Forum Mod Member

    Lol quadrapost, but I almost missed this response.
    How is that different from yesterday? I saw people driving the eviction hard, Amici not being there to defend herself, and I don't really get the bolded. What would have made sense?

    And why couldn't we have gone into MYLO with Amici alive? It would still be MYLO is we mislimmed someone else yesterday.
     
  5. Ephemera Faerie of the Viridian Forest
    Ephemera

    Member

    If we went into MYLO with Amici alive, Amici's the elimination 100%. We couldn't leave that slot for MYLO.
     
  6. Ephemera Faerie of the Viridian Forest
    Ephemera

    Member

    Interesting idea, and for the most part I think it comes from town, but it shouldn't happen. If we eliminate someone who we think has been primed by scum, scum just wait it out a little more, priming someone else tonight.
     
  7. Vom Shocking Puns
    Vom

    Forum Mod Member

    If they wait they narrow things down anyway, because whoever got eliminated becomes comfo-town.
     
  8. Vom Shocking Puns
    Vom

    Forum Mod Member

    Fair enough.
     
  9. Ephemera Faerie of the Viridian Forest
    Ephemera

    Member

    Okay, now you're just reducing my whole body of work to my D1. Bleh. I have shown. All my thoughts. About why Jade/vom/bb should probably be town based on the mega vote and their other behavior. About why I believe scattered is town, not just on the D1 vote, but on his later actions and thoughts (admittedly not a lot, but that's what I'm going back for). About why Amici needed to be the elimination yesterday. I really dislike this continued dismissal of pretty much everything I've done, reducing it to "bad reads."

    Another thing: all of the things you've said are not necessarily scum traits. The one that comes more often from scum is insubstantial reads – but I don't have insubstantial reads, and it's really triggering to keep hearing that three days later. OMGUS is NAI, and that stuff only happened D1, while my "flip-floppiness" is making sure I don't lock my mindset into a mistaken world. Get a better suspicion on me if you wanna drive my miselim.

    Now for this. I wanted another opinion on jade/bb/vom because I worried that I could be locking them town in my head when they shouldn't be.

    As for bb/mega interactions, they were casing each other pretty hard, and they were pretty much contradictory cases – if one was valid, the other was invalid, and so on. The state of the thread meant that this was highly unlikely to be v/v – had they been v/v like D1, wolves would have likely stepped back and let it continue, whereas people in thread D2 were actively participating in the bb v. mega discussion.
     
  10. Ephemera Faerie of the Viridian Forest
    Ephemera

    Member

    while this is true, if we do this we're basically shooting into town here – I don't think that's worth locking a read that would be pretty much consensus anyhow.
     
  11. Vom Shocking Puns
    Vom

    Forum Mod Member

    Yeah, the whole point is that we’re shooting into town once so we don’t get shot twice - I’m not saying it’s the best course of action, I’m just saying that it would save our hides for one more day.
     
  12. Ephemera Faerie of the Viridian Forest
    Ephemera

    Member

    it could but in doing so we risk the very real possibility that we shoot someone not primed, whether they weren't primed or were the firefighter save. Not worth it.

    I have free time now, gonna try and make a couple walls on EoDs starting with D1.
     
  13. Jabberwock #Jovimohnaeliackvid
    Jabberwock

    Forum Mod Member

    I don't see this working. I don't even know what we would gain from an additional Day besides more time to discuss leads.

    Scumtells are scumtells no matter when in the game they happen. If you have legitimate reason to believe somebody is scum on D1, and nothing happens to refute that reason, it's still relevant on D4 regardless of how they've changed their play since then. I agree that Eph has done more actual scumhunting and built reads off of more actual evidence in the last couple Days, but changing their play after being pressured to do so is NAI. Meanwhile, early scumtells do indicate alignment.

    To clarify, I'm still unsure myself how much of Eph's earlygame play to chalk up to inexperience. They say they're trying out a new mode of play, which I respect, but at the same time eight games is plenty of experience to know not to do some of stuff they did (gut-based reads, OMGUSing). My general point here is that it doesn't make sense for them to fall off your scumdar purely by changing the play that got them onto it in the first place.

    I think he had pretty legitimate reasons; he had solidified his reads on everybody else as at least lean-town, and moreover it wasn't just PoE; we all had plenty of reasons to expect that Amici was scum. It might be a little out of character, but then it's pretty rare that somebody can have all their reads that tied up in the first place. And I stand by the statement that scum would be extremely unlikely to claim 80% confidence in an elimination they know will flip town.

    It's not my intention to reduce everything you've done in this game to your D1. Again, you've responded admirably to the questions put to you since I subbed in; in the last Day-and-a-bit you've developed your reads substantially based on things people have said and the way they've voted over the course of the game. But the facts as I see them are like this: You spent much of the first two Days making unsubstantiated statements like "this feels scummy" and pushing cases for which the evidence essentially amounted to gut feelings. Many players, including Vom and bb, pressured you to develop your reads further, and at some point (I think toward the end of D2, but I could be misremembering my read-through) you began to do that. However, nothing has happened to discount people's early scumreads on you, and as such the wagon that started on you on D1 still holds all the same merit it did then.

    I need to reread and it's not gonna happen tonight, but I know you've had insubstantial reads this game.

    OMGUS is only NAI if the player doing it doesn't know any better; for somebody who has the experience of eight games behind them, it's an unsubstantiated read, and only scum tries to push eliminations for which they know they have no concrete evidence.

    A certain amount of flip-floppiness is expected, for sure; you don't want to be tunneling. But too much flip-floppiness is a scumtell because of how scum want to cover all their bases. This might be a fair defense; I need to go back and reread to make sure.

    That's fair.

    That's also fair. I think Vom(?) was the one who initially asked you about your D2 bb/Mega read, so tagging @Vom in case she missed this and has anything more to say about it.
     
  14. Ephemera Faerie of the Viridian Forest
    Ephemera

    Member

    bb/mega not v/v was a mindmeld with vom iirc

    reading is hard when internal motivation is weak. will get walls out regardless.
     
  15. Ephemera Faerie of the Viridian Forest
    Ephemera

    Member

    I'm so mad at D3 me, reading my posts D1 I was right to have amici as high town. Dang.
     
  16. Ephemera Faerie of the Viridian Forest
    Ephemera

    Member

    okay some thoughts.

    note: i'm starting from flips only, so there will be no progression from previous reads lol.

    early game scattered talks a lot to mega. weird. could be that they're scumteam together and scattered unconsciously gravitates towards his teammate?
     
  17. Ephemera Faerie of the Viridian Forest
    Ephemera

    Member

    lol D1 me
    sometimes the obvious scummy vote is just obvious

    mega's interactions with bb don't sound like D1 scum theater, nor do they sound stilted like a scum player mentioning their teammate.
     
  18. Ephemera Faerie of the Viridian Forest
    Ephemera

    Member

    scattered dodging my question about past scumgames could be sus. Or it could just be forgetting about your last scumgame. Idk.
     
  19. bbninjas Ready or Not!
    bbninjas

    Advanced Member Member

    My breakdown on Eph's Day 4 posts:

    Categories: Self-defense, Solving, Neither
    #454, #455, #456, #462, #463, [I call out Eph for not solving], #476, #485, #486, #489, #490, #492, #495, #495, #496, #487, #498

    • #486, #490, #492 are just comments on Vom's "elim-the-primed" idea, which isn't really solving.
    • #496 is Eph's "okay some thoughts" post, and I'd argue that's the first substantial solving attempt we've seen from Eph today.
    And I don't count either of these posts (#456 and #463) as solving because Eph's literally just saying "we need to be active" and "I'm going to read back", which again doesn't actually solve anything.

    I think Eph has consistently focused most of their attention on defending themself when under pressure, and focuses attention on solving when they're not under pressure. Eph's early Day 1 is an exception - she was more focused on OMGUSing people and often neglected to respond to the actual case on them (which is just as scummy). Honestly , I'm not seeing these things as a scumtell - if Eph's playstyle had changed massively over the course of the game, then it would suggest Eph is actively putting up a facade. However, Eph's playstyle hasn't really changed over time, which would suggest these quirks are inherent. i.e. Eph is just a scummy town and their playstyle is probably NAI. Eph seeming genuinely surprised that other people think she's not solving does support this.

    @Jabberwock this is why I've stopped basing my read on Eph based on how they solve.

    Unfortunately, I've just come to this conclusion as I type this up, so this is a bit of a long-winded way of saying that I'm finding Eph really difficult to read. It's a lean-town though rn.

    Also, on the "did Eph have good reads" conversation; I think Eph had legitimate reads at the end of Day 1 and end of Day 2 where they built the Cel and bbn cases. I think Eph's start of Day 1 and start of Day 2 reads were very bad and hardly reads at all, but that's opinion.

    No, my issue is that you're throwing suspicion on Jabber without actually looking closer at their posts. Re: throwing suspicion one me, while I agree with the sentiment that I shouldn't be locktown'd, that's not quite the tone I was getting from your post. Anyway, it's not something I want to fight over - I mostly wanted to see what you had to say to those points.
     
  20. scattered mind Competitive VG Forums Mod
    scattered mind

    Forum Mod Member

    show it because I don’t remember talking to mega more than twice maybe.
     
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