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Discussion in 'Forum Games' started by Zone Q11, May 7, 2020.
Aaand that's hammer.
Official Day 1 Vote Count (Final)
--- --- ---
1. TheAquaPiplup - Ephemera
2. NinjaPenguin - Ephemera
3. Ephemera - GM Draclord
4. scattered mind - Ephemera
5. The Last Shaymin - Ephemera
6. Jadethepokemontrainer - GM Draclord
7. GM Draclord - TheAquaPiplup
--- --- ---
Ephemera - 4 HAMMER
GM Draclord - 2
TheAquaPiplup - 1
--- --- ---
Ephemera has been lynched!
Spoiler: Their role was...
You are a Vanilla Townie.
Your weapon is your vote, you have no night actions.
You win when all threats to the town have been eliminated.
Night 1 Starts!
Please do not talk, edit, delete, or apologize for not doing the stuff I just mentioned until Day 2 starts!
Here is your timer until the Start of Day 2.
Jadethepokemontrainer has been attacked!
Spoiler: His role was...
You are a Town Cop.
Each night phase, you may target one player in the game to investigate them.
You will receive a result of "Town" or "Mafia".
You win when all threats to the town have been eliminated.
Day 2 Starts!It was a short time together, but... it's already LYLO! Town has to lynch the Mafia Today or they will lose the game!
Here is your timer until the End of Day 2.
Okay so I'm still super annoyed about that hammer. I'll talk about my strategy going into EoD yesterday and what I was doing in a bit but first I want to ask a couple of questions:
@The Last Shaymin Why did you choose not to vote Piplup and flip onto Ephe? Were you aware that your vote was the hammer?
@scattered mind What were your results?
Everyone, do not vote. This is LYLO and if a townie places down an incorrect vote this will end the game since scum can quickhammer (it's a bit harder since they can't coordinate, but it's still way too big a risk to leave open).
I believe that the optimal strategy here in LYLO is to follow the leader. Simply put, scattered is confirmed town and scum can't get lynched without him, so he should pick a vote with about a day left in the day and we all need to follow him. Obviously, we can make our cases to scattered and interacting and solving is still crucial, but if a townie votes differently than him or he votes a townie town isn't winning this game.
(If votes were locked, there's a strategy here that I like more than this one, but they're not so I think this is optimal.)
So my strategy going into the end of the day yesterday was one that I learned about from a player named Distorted (Ephe knows them also, which is why I wrote that in the thread).
The basics of Distorted's strategy is that when the thread is in a lull, the best way to force people into alignment indicative content is to cause chaos with the votes by creating competitive wagons. When you do that, you can get much more meaningful interactions and force people out of the a dead air NAI content situation. Since all of the other four were either producing NAI content or seemed scummy to me (Ephe), I wanted to use this strategy to try to force people out of their comfort zones.
I kept making people make meaningful decisions that would help decide the lynch and then creating more ties and forcing more people to make decisions. By doing this, as you all saw, we got a ton of interesting info: Piplup's wagon behavior, Drac's vote on Piplup rather than Ephe, TLS's hammer etc. instead of all the NAI stuff they were posting earlier.
My first conclusion from EoD behavior is that Drac almost definitely isn't teamed with Piplup. Their vote on Piplup felt highly not partner-y and put them into a spot where they were a very likely lynch.
TLS's vote on Piplup felt pretty not partner-y. Not 100% sold on that but I feel okay about it.
TLS's hammer vote was really bad. I'd like to see their answer to my question before I say any more.
With Drac/Shaymin/Piplup left as scum and Piplup not teamed with Drac I'm pretty sure, that means that TLS must be scum and should be the vote for today. Partner should be Drac but Drac's vote on TLS was weird too so I'm not 100% on that. I'll probably reread the game at some point and gauge all those interactions more closely.
I'd like to go on a Drac meta dive at some point to see how he treats his partners and how he acts when he votes them (if at all), but I've been confined for mobile for a while now and will be for the foreseeable future so we'll see if I can.
My results show: Aqua -scum
I know - short and sweet but I’ll have to come back later
But the hammer really doesn't effect the day much as it was ending already right? Understand about the vote, so I would abstaining for now. Fair enough about following the leader.
Normally I'd do a bunch of conditional probability stuff for that cop check based on sanities and frames but that sounds like actual death on mobile so if anyone else could work that out that would be great. (But also please only do this if you have the time I'd rather have reads and be solving the game than focusing on this.)
I'm annoyed about the hammer because I did a lot of work to rearrange my schedule so I could be online at EoD and then I see the day has ended with this awful hammer.
Drac, if you're town, we need to find eachother ASAP. Please talk to me about your reads, thoughts on other players, personal mindset, approach to this game, or really anything. I need to find the other townie out there and I need whoever it is to project their solvyness and help me find them.
DO you believe SM's result might be wrong? I belive 75% chance the result is correct what's ur %?
- NinjaPenguin - You're the main driving force of this game, with your amount of contribution i can be 99% certain you're aligned with town. it's hard to fathom you would put this much effort if you were scum in this small setup, not many mind game could be played.
- scattered mind - The only 1 left that claimed cop, so this is 99% save already hence no comment needed.
- The Last Shaymin & TheAquaPiplup - these 2 are the only possible scum left. TLS activity is the usual iirc i wonder if he lurk more. About Aqua, the host did say he was rather mia at the moment so love to wait what his reply is.
Figuring out exact probabilities with these cop checks takes a lot more work because you need to scenario map possible scum teams, scattered's sanity, and frame targets and see which combinations are still left. These results I think should make it more likely Piplup and I are aligned and thus Piplup is town but there's so many variables that you'd need to just map out scenarios to be sure.
One thing I'm wondering about is the momentum on that Piplup wagon. When TLS voted, did that vote have intention to kill? If so, why was TLS bussing Piplup?
This vote feels like it legitimizes Piplup as a real wagon, but at the same time it's so hedgy that it could easily be one designed to be removed at the end of the day. I'd give minor unaligned points for Shaymin and Piplup but not as much as I have with Drac's Piplup vote.
Also this Drac suspicion and willingness to switch between the two is just gone at the end of the day? @The Last Shaymin Along with answers my earlier questions, please take me through your read progression yesterday.
If you believe my results are 75% correct you also believe NP is 75% scum because my previous results said so. Also that would mean Aqua is town.
That aqua is scum*
I really start to believe I am insane cop. Otherwise NP is scum and I just can't see this.
He successfully explained all of my FoS on him including the tie thing. Even if he is scum - I'd say kudus to you.
If I go by this mindset then Aqua is town too. That leaves GM Drac and Shaymin.
I'm leaning towards Aqua as town also but remember that the scum has a framer and that can mess with everything. If you are insane Piplup and I are 100% both town but there's a significant chance that you are sane and I was framed Night 0 because apparently everyone felt like targeting me then lmao.
I don't want to be hasty with clears based on mech info and I still think TLS-Piplup has a decent amount of partner equity. I really need to take a meta drive into how Drac treats his partners as scum and see if the way he's treated TLS fits into that or not and I hope I can get onto a computer in time for that because going through multiple threads on mobile PB is death.
oh, sorry. I didnt even know that it was a hammer, i just voted for them like any other vote. I'm still not entirely sure what a hammer is, but i was more used to the bigger games so i didnt look at the numbers, sorry
my reads the last day were that scattered, NP, and jade were definitely town, and that everyone else was just neutral (i'm bad at this)
Would that mean that both cops would be catching you as scum or would the results be swapped?
Why did you vote Ephe? Why didn't you want to vote Piplup?
If I was framed that night sane cop would check me as scum and insane cop would check me as town.
What are your reads right now and why?
@Everyone When I ask for reads, I don't care as much for your conclusions as I do the thought process behind it. What about someone's actions indicates a town/scum mindset? What is your thought process? How are you evaluating stuff? Don't just say "I think xyz" is town tell me why you think that.
Actively produce content and work to solve the game. Don't just do stuff when I ask you questions and lurk in the thread otherwise, do stuff without prompting to prove that you're working towards the town win condition of catching scum.
There's a reason I'm mostly reading you three off of associatives and it's because none of you are providing very readable content. Whichever one of you three is town needs to put in the work to help me realize that you are. Force the scum to not be able to hide behind short statements rather than complex thoughts.
I think you’re town and scattered is cop. The remaining 2 are mafia.
I think scattered is insane cop as you’re town and so am I.
With ephermia being town this means we can only have 2 town left and with jade being cop we must have 1 cop left assuming you weren’t targeted this would make jade the sane cop.
With this conclusion shaymin and drac have to be mafia.