Competitive Battling in the 5th Generation

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Stall teams will rule UU for a long time, but OU and Uber will be dominated by offense. However, Gigaisu will be major because of its high defense stats and its access to Explosion and Stealth Rock, even though not nearly as many teams will be using it or preparing for it. Tabunne will not replace Blissey, merely because it pales in comparison. Roopushin will be a tank, along with Gigaisu, and Physical will become more common than Special thanks to those two and Warubiaru. Desukan is there to counter the Physical attackers in this generation, with it's 145 DEF, Mummy, Ghost typing, access to moves that manipulate the foe's stats, and decent SPATK and SPDEF. It will be top tier until someone discovers a way to defeat it, then it will find a way to defeat that, and then it will rise up to Ubers (Possibly). Shandera and Gochiruzeru will become top OU, if not Uber, and will, along with Wobbuffet, revitalize Trapping, if not also stall to stop that. Shubarugo has excellent stats, and even more contributes to the dominence of Physical attackers in the Gen. 5. Emonga will be interesting in UU or BL, or even low OU. Burungeru will be interesting as a bulky water + bulky ghost, yet this strategy will lose dominance because of the Physical metagame. On the topic of enhancements of the 4th gen, rain will be massive in OU, with sun to a lesser extent, and so Yanmega will rise (as I said in my previous post). With dual stab that hits Ludicolo and Politoed, and the best method to outrun Kingdra, along with the shrink in Stealth Rock usage, Yanmega will go up to OU. As I said before, this is my first entirely new generation of competitive battling, but I feel I am pretty accurate. Monkey, out.
 
Yeah, when I made the TTar prediction a lot of stuff still wasn't known, so I'll be taking that one back. However I will say that he'll hover around the 5th in usage mark.

For the sake of discussion I'm just going to throw out more predictions...

4: Cloyster will be low level OU

Yeah, that's right. Cloyster gets access to an absolutely ridiculous attack called Shell Break which lowers its defenses by one stage, but sharply increases its attack, special attack, and speed. Oh and let's not forget that Cloyster has Skill Link and the new and improved Icicle Spear, effectively giving him a base 125 STAB Ice attack. Explosion is on the table too, as are Shell Blade (base 75 physical Water, Cloyster doesn't learn Waterfall) and Surf. Rock Blast is pretty awesome too and gives Cloyster something to hit bulky Water types with.

I think that ultimately Cloyster will end up being underwhelming due to his low offensive base stats, though. He generally feels like a pretty unstable Pokemon, what with the weakness to all entry hazards and Sandstorm, so I think the top players will avoid using him.
 
I think you slightly underestimate Cloyster there. The offensive power might be a little low, but by god the base power + coverage of the moves more than makes up for it. It can crush just about everything in two hits, including stuff like Skarmory and Suicune (I think someone did a calc with neutral-nautred +2 Hydro Pump which OHKO'd Skarm, so I guess that's an option), despite not having > 100 Atk as a base. There's also the fact that it steamrolls right through Sturdy and Subs, which is obviously useful (the latter especially if you're against a Mischievous Heart poke). The huge weakness to everything special is annoying though, especially since the only special priority move is SE against it...

You're probably right, but I can't help but think that you underestimate just how much damage it will be capable of. And it's not like it will be hard pressed to set up either, given its phenomenal initial defence stat.
 
Cloyster will be much stronger than you think because, like I said earlier, Yanmega will become top-tier, and so Cloyster, with its killer icicles that are super effective against it, will rise to challenge Yanmega.
 
Well assuming Yanmega becomes top tier (I doubt this), Cloyster would need Ice Shard to deal with it, an option that doesn't mesh well with the only thing that makes it worthwhile, Shell Break.

One problem with Cloyster is that the SDef makes it too unreliable a sweeper. Consider this-- If Cloyster isn't capable of OHKO'ing any opponent that uses a special attack, even if it's something like Surf, then Cloyster loses. I'd say the same for a good proportion of physical attackers actually as well, because after launching an attack Cloyster is likely to be hanging around at either 65% health or lower (SR + Life Orb) with a defence drop.

Let's not forget that after a defence drop, Cloyster is susceptible to priority too-- CB Scizor's Bullet Punch does 59.8% - 70.5%, Breloom's Mach Punch (without Technician and Life Orb) does 54.8% - 64.7%, Infernape's Mach Punch (from physical mix based) does 55.6% - 65.6%, etc etc.

About how much brute strength the set has: Well there are a lot of "What if?"s concerning the EV spread that Cloyster will use, so it's hard to say just how powerful the standard will end up being, considering that Cloyster needs to heavily invest in Speed so it can escape revenge kills from Choice Scarfers (136 EVs is the absolute minimum I guess to avoid Scarf Heatran. ). But it's easy enough to see that if Cloyster isn't investing enough into Speed then it's getting revenge killed, and if it's not investing enough into offence then it's being beaten by the majority of bulky Water and Steel types (and on that note, Empoleon and the Water/Fight legendary annihilate it).

Lastly, Cloyster has huge problems setting up. Don't let the high base defence fool you, because that's coupled with an abysmal HP without any EV investment at all. If it's got a special attack, Cloyster can't set up on it. If it's got a status move, Cloyster can't set up on it. If it's pure physical but has a move that hits one of Cloyster's many common weaknesses (i.e. pretty much any physical attacker not seen on stall), Cloyster isn't getting far with its sweep at all. If Cloyster is naturally faster than the opponent then it has to take a hit after lowering its defences one stage too.

I think Cloyster has a good chance of being OU, but much like SubPetaya Empoleon I just don't see him being a dominant force in the game. He'll most likely see a lot of love at the very beginning of the BW metagame akin to how Weezing and Regice used to be OU for DP, but after things stabilise I doubt he'll be anywhere above 30th in usage.
 
Prediction 1: Dekusaan: The new annoyer: Dekusaan will most definitely ruin ability-based pokemon because mummy, and although 6-Dimension said that now that gliscor can get Dream World Poison Heal, Dekusaan will be its worst enemy with mummy. And it can learn Toxic too, so that makes Dekusaan Gliscors No.1 competitive threat. And with telekinesis(can inflict random status effect), grudge, and shadow ball for attacking, Dekusaan will be a nice annoyer, and has a high chance of being in OU.

Prediction 2: Ononokus is the 5th gen dragon king. according to bulbapedia, he has 432 base attack. Wow. and with Outrage, Earthquake, Swords Dance, and Rock Slide(no stone edge.. :() You got a OU(maybe uber) physical sweeper.

Prediction 3: Akeosu: The new Aerodactyl? With the same typing and better stats in which aerodactyl stars in(416 attack and 350 speed as compared to 339 attack and 394 speed), and with dragon moves too, people might start using akeosu more than aerodactyl, besides although the fact that aerodactyl is faster, Akeosu is fast too and lets face it, aerodactyl HAS been a speed freak. High chances of being in OU.

Also, in all my predictions the stats i am mentioning are at the highest EV's. Also, these stats are all at when the poke is at lv100.
 
Akeosu will never surpass Aerodactyl due to Weak Knees. If you don't know, it makes it so it's stats are halved once it gets below 50%. Aerodactyl reigns king as the prehistoric lead.
 
Pokemon Online released an alpha of Gen V recently, which I've been playing on a lot (and by "a lot", I mean "about 20-25 matches per day"), so these are a few quick observations. I'll make a more comprehensive post later. Obviously, this is not at all indicative of Gen V, as it's brand new and also does not feature things like new items or a few of the more complicated abilities and attacks.
  • Urgamoth is pretty overrated, although Sub/Butterfly Dance/Bug Buzz/Fire Dance or Flamethrower seems to work the best. Typically, this is combined with Swarm and a stat-boosting berry for potentially devastating effect. However, it is kept in check by Pokemon like...
  • Kerudio! With great stats, great offensive typing, and Swords Dance, Kerudio is a potent threat. It will probably be banned, honestly. But yeah, it also has Aqua Jet. Which is awesome.
  • Ononokusu is overrated as well, but not as much as some people thought. A DD set can work pretty well, but setting up is a pain due to lackluster defenses and speed (don't even try SD, you won't live long enough to utilize it). It is kept in check mostly by...
  • Sazando! Which I haven't used much, but have had used against me and it seems pretty great. Anyway.
  • Ditto is a god. Well, kind of. It keeps Urgamoth, Chanderaa and Ononokusu in check perfectly - honestly, most set-up Pokemon fall to the might that is Choice Scarf Ditto. Just don't try it against walls, and be careful with using it against a Pokemon you suspect of having a Scarf.
  • Speaking of Chanderaa, it's pretty okay. Fragile (well, more fragile than most other Pokemon) defenses make Shadow Tag hard to utilize. I don't think that it will be as threatening as people think, but maybe someone will come up with some amazing set. Horrible typing is a bit of an issue, too.
  • Nattorei seems pretty decent as a setup Pokemon.
  • I have not seen many Gigaiasu. In fact, I think I've only seen one. Mark my words though, he'll become more common later.
  • Roopushin (is that its name?) is awesome. It's wrecked my team more than once.

Anyone else play any Gen V yet? I'd like to hear more opinions.
 
One thing I've really noticed is Burunkeru (Water/Ghost octopus). It looks like it will be OU's Primary Ghost, with access to Boiling Water and Recover to aid it its survival. Once its opponent is burning, Burunkeru does not die for a long time!

Erufuun (Grass Sheep) is an amazing lead. With Mischevious Heart, it gets a priority Taunt, as well as sub-seed. You will need something to take Grass types and Weavile on; those are the only things that stop it.
 
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