Help Is Lost March still competitive?

Javi Blizz

Javi Blizz

Spanish TCG Player
Member
Hello guys! I’ve been considering to start playing competitively again outside of my city (last time the format was Primal Clash-On) and I’ve testing some decks in my local league and PTCGO. I’m liking Lost March too much, but I’m not sure how does it perform against the main threats of the format, since people in my local store are not too competitive and online you don’t really know if you’re winning because of your skill or the lack of from your opponent.

Currently, I’m running the Team Up version with Emolga from an article that I found in this page, while a friend that also wants to play the deck is going a more conservative route with Elm.
 
Competitively, the deck is dead actually.
The big decks are :
-> Zapdos : Autoloss. It takes the first KO consistently against your deck and the consistency difference is insane.
-> PikaRom : Favorable is they're not playing a version with heavy Zapdos.
-> Zoroark variants : You have two turns to setup. It's kinda unfavorable.
-> Malamar variants : Ultra necrozma GX or spread is an autoloss.
-> Stall : Autoloss if they're playing Shuckle GX.
-> Blacephalon : Favorable.
-> Koko/Passimian : Autoloss. Basic pokemons, better consistency, spread.

Having bad consistency and that much really unfavorable / autoloss matchups is terrible.
But if you're against a more "wild" meta and you like the deck, let's play it !
 
I have to be careful how I say what I am about to say. I am only going by my experiences on the PTCGO because Lost March hasn't been showing up in the Top 10% - let alone the Top 8 - of most tournaments and I have no recent tournament experience myself. I do not believe Lost March is currently, competitively viable. Maybe it could do well at an event under unusual circumstances, as it is still a functional deck, but there is are two many autolosses.

However, there are many matchups above labeled as "autoloss" that aren't, at least in my admittedly narrow experience. Now, I am not taking "autoloss" literally; instead, I am reading it as something that is so difficult to win you'll only due to due to extreme luck and/or skill differences. So, with all that in mind, let me way in and if I am mistaken, I am sure someone will disabuse me of my delusions. ;)
  • Zapdos Variants (No GX): Autoloss, but only just.
  • Zapdos Variants (w/GX): Unfavorable; they need to "goof" and play their Pokémon-GX.
  • Pikarom Variants: Unfavorable; you need to build to massive OHKO levels. Mind Tag Bolt-GX.
  • Zoroark Variants: Slightly favorable; your concern is reaching OHKO-range too slowly.
  • Malamar variants : Autoloss unless you find the rare example not running spread.
  • Stall: Varies, but usually unfavorable to autoloss.
  • Blacephalon: Favorable.
  • Passimian/Tapu Koko: Near autoloss.
Spread is the biggest issue for Lost March. Even just solid bonus Bench hits. All damage-based spread decks (as opposed to placing damage counters) are going to take a hit soon, as Mew w/Bench Barrier is coming. It eats up another slot on your Bench, Alolan Muk (SUM) can shut it down, etc. but it is still easier to include than Machoke (GRI). Of course, other new cards may still punish Lost March.
 
It's funny the last two times there was a post like this the very next tournament was won by that same deck so imma say lost March is still relevant. (But not really)
Seriously look back there was a blacephalon and night March version of this same question
 
I started the paper TCG with Lost March, so I want to believe it's possible it'll be the dark horse winner, but Lost March just gets absolutely murdered by Zapdos/Zapdos tech. Against Straight Zapdos, your win condition is they dead draw. Against Zapdos techs (like the popular Pikarom list runs), you need them to not Zapdos your Pokemon while ramping up your Lost Zone very, very fast to hit the numbers you need to knock out their GX/Tag Teams. To add insult to injury, most deck lists are usually more consistent than Lost March: Jirachi is just insane draw potential and Lost March really, really needs the bench space such that teching an Alolan Muk, or even an Absol, is really risky. The setup is a little bit more difficult because you need Pokemon + Evolve (the Floral Path adding 2 Pokemon is just huge) + Energy whereas Zapdos just needs 1 Pokemon + 1 energy.
 
Seems like we need to focus more on how the Zapdos/Jirachi matchup is rough because of how often the deck lets your opponent Guzma up Hoppip for an easy OHKO that slows down your own setup. I don't like to think of these as autolosses because there is a chance to win other than your opponent's deck bricking. It usually means going second, getting a little lucky in that you can pull off a OHKO with Natu on your first turn. It requires some luck because you'll need to send 5-6 cards to your Lost Zone via Trumbeak and Lost Blender in a single turn. It requires even more luck because you've got to be reckless while also setting up your Jumpluff.

Yeah, maybe that's just a nitpick on my part. I keep having to re-read what some of you are saying because it just doesn't click the first time. ;)
 
Thanks for your oppinions!

By my latest testings online, the decks that I almost always lose against are Ultra Necrozma and Cofragigus/Giratina. Playing in my local store, last week I ended with a 3W/1L/0T, winning against Garchomp, PikaRom and Flareon GX while loosing against Zoroark/Glaceon (in part since I didn’t had the 40HP Hoppip, so Glaceon killed 2 ‘mos per turn). So definitely, spread seems to be an autolose.

Zapdos however, I’ve faced some of them in the online and unless they’re playing only Zapdos, I can win by killing their GXs. Not sure how often is played without GX, though
 
Zapdos is fairly easy to play without GX's: just don't put your GX's down. I won't say I get a 100% victory against Lost March with mine (I've played both straight Zapdos/Jirachi and Zapdos/Jolteon) but I only lose if I fail to set up or make a mistake down the line (like one where I started with a Zeraora GX because I had no other basics).

But when I have a choice and start with a normal Jirachi or Zapdos, I don't really have a problem. I wait until late in the game to bench Jolteon, and when I do it's to use Swift Run GX to take my fifth prize and then another prize the next turn for game. Up to that point it's pure Zapdos, taking the first 4 prizes usually turns 1-4 or 2-5 if I start first. It's so easy to take a prize every turn, while Lost March has to get a perfect setup to start taking prizes turn 2 (you need 6 Pokémon in the lost zone turn 2, and meanwhile I'm probably hitting your first turn Hopip). You also have to get an energy of the right type every single turn, which can be challenging (if you have a grass but no Hopip to put it on for example, or a DCE but no Natu). But even if you do take a prize a turn starting turn 2, I'm taking a prize a turn starting before you - so I'm winning the prize trade, and unless I have a major failure of consistency (which is fairly unlikely in a tight Zapdos deck) I'm not going to have trouble drawing the relatively limited cards I need to in order to get that next energy and next Zapdos.

I would say it's probably 80%; Zapdos is just much more consistent with Jirachi, and it has to be only a relatively minimal amount of lucky in order to win - LM has to be drastically luckier. So in that case I'd call it auto-win, because it's only 4% for LM to win a 3 game set.
 
snoopy369 said:
I would say it's probably 80%; Zapdos is just much more consistent with Jirachi, and it has to be only a relatively minimal amount of lucky in order to win - LM has to be drastically luckier. So in that case I'd call it auto-win, because it's only 4% for LM to win a 3 game set.
Click to expand...

Thanks for explaining. I'm quoting this part first because I wanted to stress that it is easy for a PTCGO-only player like myself, even though I began playing with the physical cards back in 1999 and participated in Organized Play as much as I could from about 2001 to 2006, to forget that it is best of three. The PTCGO regrettably only does single-game matches, and best-of-three was a rarity even for major tournaments until... how long ago was it? Five years? 10?

Even though I'm going to question a bit of what you said, I want to be clear that you have convinced me that your conclusion is sound; when it comes to Zapdos/Jirachi versus Lost March, the match is an autoloss for Lost March.

However, you say several things that concern me in your argument. Call it sour grapes if you must. I'll put it being Spoiler Tags, however, to emphasize that this is clearly a quibble.

Instead of dissecting the entire quote, I'll just respond and with a simplification of what I want to discuss:

1) Luck Happens
2) You cannot attack T1

I don't care how tight your Zapdos/Jirachi list is, if it is actually competitive, it'll have enough cards that - drawn together - produce a dead hand. When that dead hand shows up also matters. It may not matter at all, because you're already winning. It may cost you the game because you somehow drew dead against something functional. In the context of this discussion, I cannot tell if you're overstating things or if I am reading too much into it. I should probably assume the latter but I've met so many players over the years where it is the former, I wished to urge caution. I've seen more than one promising player fall victim to unrealistic expectations and ignoring that "luck happens".

Turn counts matter. Everyone is free to use relative turn counts (Player 1 has a Turn 1, Player 2 has a Turn 1...) or absolute turn counts (Player 1 gets all the odd numbered turns, player two all the even numbered turns). Either I misunderstood you or you misunderstood me, though... because as unlikely as my "aggressive Lost March" scenario actually was, if it happens then Lost March has the Prize lead. Using absolute turn counts, the Player A (using Zapdos/Jirachi) just cannot take a Prize T1. Player B (running Lost March) is both lucky and skilled, and manages to send the five Pokémon Natu needs to OHKO Jirachi or the six it needs to OHKO Zapdos to the Lost Zone, while also getting a Natu with a Double Colorless Energy into the Active position to attack. Until the Lost March player whiffs on a OHKO (or attack as a whole), the two go back and forth with Player A tieing Player B until Player B wins or Player A takes four Prizes, drops Eevee, attaches a basic Lighting Energy card from hand, uses Energy Evolution to Evolve Eevee into a Jolteon-GX from the deck, uses...

Huh.

You're sure this scenario doesn't require more luck than you made it out to take? Swift Run-GX requires [LC] so you'll need to still have Tapu Koko {*} or Thunder Mountain {*} or a basic [L] Energy already in play plus an Energy Switch in hand so that Jolteon-GX can attack for a OHKO while also protecting itself. Don't get me wrong: this was a highly lucky scenario for the Lost March deck, so allowing some luck for Player A running Zapdos/Jirachi is fine. It just needs to be acknowledged as such. I mean, even at this point, Player B wouldn't be completely out of options; if they still have a Guzma or Escape Rope and attacker, they can get around Swift Run-GX. Again, I've done this. It may have been a fantastical fluke, and it does not change that when it comes to Zapdos/Jirachi, it is an autoloss only avoided due to significant differences in luck or skill.

Edit: Kept messing up the Spoiler Tags. XP
 
I'm not Snoopy369, and we're probably just being technical here (since I think everyone is in agreement that Lost March is highly unfavorable to Zapdos/Jirachi), but I find your counterpoints interesting, especially since I just tried to play Lost March a bunch in this meta (both physical and PTCGO). That said, I think you're overthinking it:

  • Luck: The point is that Lost March requires MORE luck. To be clear, we're not just talking about dead draws. All decks need luck, but what we're really talking about is Zapdos/Jirachi has more outs = MORE chance for things to happen = LESS chance for bad things to happen: the standard meta outs (Cynthia/Lillie), the standard meta tech-choice outs (Marshadow), and the all-important Jirachi. Being able to Jirachi (sometimes 2x per turn) is huge as you find a key Ultra Ball, Electropower, etc. Lost March has this MINUS Jirachi AND you NEED extra setup whereas Zapdos simply sticks 1 energy onto the Zapdos and finds a way to switch it from bench to active. For Lost March, you need a minimum of 4-5 Lost Zone Pokemon to knock out Jirachi and 6 Pokemon knockout a Zapdos, which is deceptively difficult (2-3 Jumpluff setups +/- Trumbeak +/- Lost Blender). Moreover, you NEED to do this early-game -- if you miss Lost Zoning in the first couple of turns, it's pretty much guaranteed you're going to lose unless your opponent dead draws (and you never want your win condition to be: "my opponent dead draws"). In converse, the Zapdos player just needs to find the Pokemon + 1 energy + 1 switch WITH additional draw engines. It's a huge difference.
  • Can't attack Turn 1: I think the point again is that Lost March has LESS OPTIONS about what to do. You either get a good setup on your first play turn (several Hoppips, etc.) or you're likely already behind, which is too slow to win the game against Zapdos, since you're racing to get 6 Prizes with cheap attackers. It's even worse that if you end up being the player that plays second on Turn 1 (IE. You go second), you do not have a realistic option to attack, since it's unlikely you will get 4-6 Lost Zone Pokemon without some extreme luck (4 Trumbeaks + a Lost Blender into a Lillie for a full hand redraw into Natu/Hoppip setup or something insane like that). In converse, once again, the Zapdos player just needs to find Zapdos + 1 energy + switch into active to be ahead with the prize race.
But again, at the end of the day, everyone agrees Lost March struggles hard against Zapdos/Jirachi, which is enough to oppress it out of the "high tier" metagame at the moment.
 
Given that Lost March has bad matchups in the current meta, I'm still curious to know what people think about the Emolga version versus the Non-Emolga version. I've played mostly the Emolga version IRL and the Non-Emolga version online, and I have to say I think the Emolga version is just loads better -- there's so much consistency with the free retreat, the Pokemon communication, and the option to Lost Blender. That said, in all the recent competitive tournaments, the most successful Lost March decks were all non-Emolga version. What gives?
 
I imagine it's more that people still playing Lost March are people playing decks they made ages ago and didn't really update. You just wouldn't build a Lost March deck and expect to be competitive now, so you have a lot less people doing that. But you do have people who built Lost March six months ago still playing the same deck because they don't have time to test a new deck.
 
Wouldn’t the new Unbroken Bonds’ Mew ability protect the bench against those spread decks and Ultra Necrozma GX’s GX move?
 
But spread is not the main problem. Zapdos is the main problem. And Mew does not prevent ultra necrozma (putting damage counters is actually different from an attack). Personally I've already been running sky pillar which does the same thing as mew.
 
Toni Kensa said:
Wouldn’t the new Unbroken Bonds’ Mew ability protect the bench against those spread decks and Ultra Necrozma GX’s GX move?
Click to expand...

Nope. Its Ability has been translated, and it appears to be the same Ability you'd find on the still Expanded-legal Mr. Mime (BW - Plasma Freeze 47/116) or Mr. Mime (XY - BREAKthrough 97/162; Generations 52/83). I don't read Japanese myself, so I'm not going through scans of the Japanese Mr. Mimes to see if they read character for character the same as Mew, but at a glance, it certainly looks like they do.
Bench Barrier's English text states:

Ability: Bench BarrierPrevent all damage done to your Benched Pokémon by attacks.​
So it will stop attacks that do damage but not the attacks that directly place damage counters or move them around. When an attack does damage, we then place damage counters on something equal to the damage that Pokémon just took but effects that place damage counters effectively "skip" a step and are distinct. To stop those, you'll need Machoke (SM - Guardians Rising 64/145). It is also worth noting that Machoke protects against the effects of Abilities and not just attacks as well.
DorilMagefont said:
But spread is not the main problem. Zapdos is the main problem. And Mew does not prevent ultra necrozma (putting damage counters is actually different from an attack). Personally I've already been running sky pillar which does the same thing as mew.
Click to expand...

I've also tried running Sky Pillar. Odds are Mew works a bit better, unless your opponent is running Alolan Muk (Sun & Moon 58/149)... but as commonly run as that Stage 1 is, more decks run their own Stadium cards, Faba, and/or Field Blower.

As for Zapdos, you may be correct. Both matchups are pretty horrid, but I think I have slightly more luck with the Zapdos one. Yes, that's kind of depressing. XD I'm trying to figure out if I could build a Lost March that can fit Ditto {*}, Alolan Muk, and Machoke... and get them to the field reliably enough to matter.
 
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Even if you get a machoke out, you evolved it from a ditto (most likely) so guzma KO and no more machoke for the game.
 
I haven't faced Malamar much on the online ladder, but aside from UNec's GX attack, is there really anything to be afraid of? The setup speed is about the same, and if you wanted to avoid UNec's Scorching Light, you can just put all your >70HP mons on your bench (Jumpluff, Marsh, Orang, etc.) and only use Natu in the active or not at all.
I do agree that facing Zapdos is a nightmare, and I'm afraid that's the only reason keeping me back from building the deck irl.
EDIT: I forgot Giratina existed. My bad.
 
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