Finished Mafia 53: Twilight's Kingdom

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bbninjas

Ready or Not!
Advanced Member
Member
My main reservation over lynching Celever or Jabber today is this: they can be mafian only in very niche, complicated scenarios. Basically, the simplest scenario is generally the most likely -- and I do think that Camo is scummiest out of the three, but he can either clear himself as town or be shown a liar tonight. The question is: Should we risk having a potentially mafian Camo live another night?

I think that depends on what his third ability is, which is why @Camoclone needs to claim it.

Lynching me is always mediocre because it's removing the least likely option for scum first which I understand the logic behind and it's a failsafe of sorts, but equally nah, your scenario of "if Cel's town and Camo does die tonight then we get Jabber" works just as well for "if Jabs is town and Camo does die tonight, then we get Cel". Why do you prefer the first scenario over the second?
You're an advocating for lynching the least likely option. In contrast with Camo, Jabber is also an unlikely option. Why are you not pushing for Camo's lynch?
 

Celever

Wheeeee~
Member
Naw, see you're cornered is the problem. Watching you squirm is fun though.
My role is out there, revealed, I'm an ability seer and bomb, both of which have been major points of discussion at several points. You either believe it or you don't at this point. All my results (save my own ability) have been counted and shared in-thread. And if we can believe Mariano is town (which let's face it, he like 99% is) then it strengthens that claim because I had no chance to modify my role (or safe-claim) at all.

No plan here can be 100%. But lynching you does, still, without question, give the best reads on Camo, Jabber, and Zone going forward. You can't argue otherwise because nobody is as uniquely tied to them like you are.

Leave everybody else aside for this puzzle. Including me or any other scum reads you have. We know one of you, ninjas, Camo, or Jabber is scum. 100% that has to be the case. If we limit this problem to you 4 (3 with ninjas being confirmed) we can very, very easily move forward from that point since Camo can self-destruct tonight. I'm not going to keep repeating myself, but we can't lynch Camo today. It's either you or Jabber, and Jabber has more risk involved and he has no connection to Zone or Drac at all.
We need better reads on the two outliers here to move past this situation, because there's only one scum left after we're through it.
bb just pointed this out, but the fact that Zone has seered me doesn't really give us any more information. If we were to lynch me then the main scumspects would still be Drac, Camo, Jabs, and Zone. Here the course splits off into if I'm mafia then you lynch Zone, if I'm town you lynch either Jabs or Camo depending on if Camo suicides or not. Either way, you hit mafia. The next day, you're either left with a Drac vs Jabs scenario, or a Drac vs Zone scenario. Either way, Drac'll get lynched, and we'll probably win off that.

If we were, instead, to lynch Jabs today then the scumspects would be Drac, Camo, Cel, and Zone. Here, it splits off into if Jabs flips mafia, Camo doesn't have to die tonight and we get to lynch Drac and then I guess Zone if necessary over the course of the next 2 days and basically win because the other mafia is probably in there. If Jabs flips town, then you lynch either me or Camo depending on if Camo suicides or not (which he won't, cos I'm town :U). And we're left in the same position of lynch Drac, lynch Zone if necessary, and we win from that.

In short, whether we lynch me or Jabs today baaasically doesn't matter in the long-term. Lynching Jabs has the potential for optimality, though, as if Jabs just straight-up flips scum Camo doesn't have to kill himself.
Whoops - looks like I misinterpreted what you were implying by "Welp. I assume that nobody pays attention to me then. As per usual.". You were pointing out that noone weighed in on whether or not you should full claim, not that people were ignoring your lynchproof claim.


What Keeper said.


I appreciate that you think you (and Zone) are clear beyond reasonable doubt, but I am not on the same page. I can see you busing Luis (especially if he was in risk of a modkill at that time), and I can see you developing a plan with Zone, because this would leave you unsuspected for the remainder of the game. Perfect. Beyond those indicators, I have no particular reason to see you as town (especially in contrast to Keeper and Mariano). Mariano incorrectly thought he caught Keeper as scum, and outside an elaborate dumbtell play, this reads genuine. He's then clearly very confused about Keeper's bomb claim (i.e. he's misinformed), and has appeared quite certain that Keeper is lying --- but if Mariano is scum, he knows that Keeper is town and should be telling the truth, making his efforts eventually pointless. Keeper has been very thorough (and consistent) with his evaluation of Jabber's dream, which has significantly improved my read on him, because it shows that he's not pushing an agenda (i.e. keep him and a buddy safe). He's also been actively helpful (and again, apparently underinformed) through his use of his Farewell Ability scan, and the information that he gains clearly informs his choice of lynch (consistency ++).
That's fine, and I'm not necessarily saying Keeper and Mariano are mafia. But I don't think they're less-so than myself or Zone are, and I just think you should keep an open-minded plateau. If we lynch Jabs today we totally avoid having to properly read any of the 4 of us (at least for 2 more days) anyway so it's by-the-by, but we've had players who everyone assumes is town for not infallible reasons ride out the rest of the game plenty of times on this site.
bb said:
You coincidentally disappeared from the thread while we had some of the most significant discussions of the game. You still managed to avoid explaining why you had been reading Drac the way you had (you basically said that it no longer mattered). The fact that you are so strongly opposed to the idea of you specifically being lynched, the only viable play if you're scum, does not help make matters clearer. A townsperson would, theoretically, be flexible and thoughtful.
I mean, it has been my first week back at school, and so therefore an adjustment (I have to take the train there now Dx). Like ik activity excuses are annoying but I haven't been on Discord because my phone borked too, and I missed the deadline in Taskmaster, which definitely isn't something I'd do for the sake of mafia, before anyone suggests that it is. Hell, I even referred to this time period in the pre-game, so :L

I've said from the start that it was primarily gut read and unwillingness to equate bad play with scummy play. Every case on Drac has been about bad play, from what I've seen, and no one's actually pointed out why he's mafia over unhelpful townie. My read has changed because of PoE. That's all.

This is a perspective debate that's happened in online mafia for aeons and will continue to happen for aeons more. Some people think that a town should allow themselves to be lynched for the sake of the greater good. Some believe that a town shouldn't. I fall into the second camp because it's invariably against a town's win condition to allow themself to be lynched, as that's using the town's main tool to widen the gap between town and anti-town to instead close the gap between the town and anti-town's numbers, and the best laid plans of mice and men, besides. Not that this debate even necessarily applies to this situation, because as shown further up in this post, lynching Jabs is on-paper the better play anyway.
bb said:
I'd say that Jabber is just as "cleared" as you are. I am pretty convinced that scattered protected Jabber Night 1, which is why scattered chose Jabber for the dream. The only instance in which this doesn't clear Jabber is if I was the nightkill target that night, which I think is unlikely since I just joined the game. Between a Cel lynch or a Jabber lynch, I think your lynch would result in clearer information (although I am still working this through).
Disregarding the Luis lynch, I'd agree with you. Including it, I just think it's a lil weird to put us on an even platform. It's not necessarily wrong, just weird, FMPOV.
 

Celever

Wheeeee~
Member
My main reservation over lynching Celever or Jabber today is this: they can be mafian only in very niche, complicated scenarios. Basically, the simplest scenario is generally the most likely -- and I do think that Camo is scummiest out of the three, but he can either clear himself as town or be shown a liar tonight. The question is: Should we risk having a potentially mafian Camo live another night?

I think that depends on what his third ability is, which is why @Camoclone needs to claim it.


You're an advocating for lynching the least likely option. In contrast with Camo, Jabber is also an unlikely option. Why are you not pushing for Camo's lynch?
I'm not necessarily saying we should, but what are your thoughts on lynching NP today, bb? It seems like a viable alternative to kill the day before we find out if Camo is scum or not.
 

Celever

Wheeeee~
Member
Oh and I missed that question I just reread lol. It's unintuitive to lynch Camo. Teeeechnically we might save a day by doing so, and I think it's actually very likely that we would, but it's decent risk vs not good but not incredible reward, considering if we lynch either me or Jabs we can still ride the game out to a victory assuming one of Keeper or Mariano aren't mafia. I'd rather just take the more consistent plan if we don't need the reward that much which, in this specific situation, we really don't.
 

GM DracLord

Shadow of Death
Member
Here is my ability

Active Ability: Panic
When the going gets tough, the tough get going! And you get going, all right, right out of your house and to someone else's to hide. Once a night, you may PM me ##HIDE BEHIND: Player. You will spend the night hiding behind that player, protecting yourself from any kills that resolve on you; however, if one resolves on the player you use this ability on, you will also die, even if a second kill also resolves on you.

Too bad this ability is wasted on me since I'm not the kind of guy that get NightKill. Since we can't afford to loose 2 townies in 1 nights, last night was the last time I'm gonna use this ability.
 

Celever

Wheeeee~
Member
Here is my ability



Too bad this ability is wasted on me since I'm not the kind of guy that get NightKill. Since we can't afford to loose 2 townies in 1 nights, last night was the last time I'm gonna use this ability.
Who have been your targets thus far?
 

NinjaPenguin

Always standing out from the crowd.
Member
I'm still sick and as such only skimming. Ping me if there's something I need to respond to:

BB is confirmed town.
Cel is only scum if Zone is.
Camo needs to full claim but he's claiming he's gonna be confirmed after tonight (and I think he should take himself out of the PoE via death even if Jabber flips scum, so we never mislynch him and because we'll get the same number of lynches left anyways after I make it a double day tomorrow.). @Camoclone mind fullclaiming everything besides the ability you're using tonight?

If we lynch Jabber->Camo->Cel out of the suspects, we still have one lynch left for Zone if Cel is indeed the scum. If it's somebody earlier in the line, we get some shots to find their buddy.

If Jabber is scum, we get three lynches to find his buddy. I'm not sure who they'd be, but it would be within Keeper/Camo/Drac/Mariano/Zone so we'd need to fire as many shots in that direction as possible. (This is why Camo still killing himself tonight would be in the best interest of everybody.)
If Camo is scum, we get two lynches to find his buddy. It can't be BB, can't be Keeper, can't be Cel, and Jabber would already be dead, so it must be within Drac/Mariano/Zone and lol all of us if Zone/Camo is a scumteam.
If Cel is scum, we get one lynch to find his buddy and it's obviously Zone in that scenario.

I'm not necessarily saying we should, but what are your thoughts on lynching NP today, bb? It seems like a viable alternative to kill the day before we find out if Camo is scum or not.
Cel you know as well as I do that this is a bad mean thing to do. Jabber I'm p sure is a no risk lynch. If he's town, Keeper then gets confirmed as town since Jabber confirmed a townie bomb in setup so that's extra incentive going for us.
 

bbninjas

Ready or Not!
Advanced Member
Member
I like your numbers NP, but they are very reliant on you causing that double day --- which I'm not putting too much stock in because of a potential mafian blocker, and to complicated matters further, we can't 100% trust that you will cause a double day because you're not under much threat.

---

Drac's claim is unfortunately a classic safe claim ability, so that doesn't help; plus we've seen copious amounts of ways to stop the nightkill already -- scattered was a doctor, Luis' farewell ability blocked the nightkill, the parasite friendship activity's reward was a self-protect, I think Camo claimed a JOAT self-protect, Zone is claiming lynchproof, NP was killproof and apparently he can skip the night, Roz's role protected me, my role is protection related... etc.

That's way too many ways to stop deaths. If this is all true, the remaining farewell abilities that are yet to flip must have highly detrimental repercussions for the mafians.

I'm not necessarily saying we should, but what are your thoughts on lynching NP today, bb? It seems like a viable alternative to kill the day before we find out if Camo is scum or not.
I was crunching numbers for this earlier and I'm not keen - it means that we have to lynch 2 mafians in 2 lynches (compared to 2 mafians in 3). It gives town slightly more control in the end game if we lynch the second mafian, with numbers at 3-1 going into Day 6, but its still MYLO with a probably final four of Zone / Drac / Keeper / Mariano.

D4: 6-2-1 --> lynch NP --> nightkill, Camo dies --> D5 4-2 --> mislynch (very possible if Camo is town) --> nightkill 2-2, game.
 

bbninjas

Ready or Not!
Advanced Member
Member
That's way too many ways to stop deaths. If this is all true, the remaining farewell abilities that are yet to flip must have highly detrimental repercussions for the mafians.

** the remaining farewell abilities will be highly detrimental to the town.
 

bbninjas

Ready or Not!
Advanced Member
Member
Actually, I just realised that NP is a strong nightkill option for the scum simply because he's confirmed non-scum. If anyone else is killed, the pool of potential mafians is narrowed (which is pro-town), so they will want to avoid that. We can rely on NP skipping the night, but if the mafians have a block / a different way of messing with you, we can expect that they will do that.
 

NinjaPenguin

Always standing out from the crowd.
Member
Actually, I just realised that NP is a strong nightkill option for the scum simply because he's confirmed non-scum. If anyone else is killed, the pool of potential mafians is narrowed (which is pro-town), so they will want to avoid that. We can rely on NP skipping the night, but if the mafians have a block / a different way of messing with you, we can expect that they will do that.
I mean if we lynch Jabber and he's town, Keeper and you are all 100% confirmed town so they kill either of you and it's a directly better option.
And if we lynch Jabber and he's scum, Cel and you are 100% confirmed town so once again either of you is a directly better option.

I'm also unblockable because Jplap gifted me his ascetic ability (which became gifted, not passive, so it wasn't removed), remember? It's a double day tomorrow and therefore scum will have no incentive to kill me to remove the possibility I make it a double day.
 

Zone Q11

『Plebeian』『He who Hails from NovelUpdates Forum』
Member
Claiming you is unnecessary because everyone is looking at this game like more of a chess game than they are using their reads right now :p
...well this has suddenly become tedious. In that case, I may as well vote for Camo again.
Only if he flips scum, because then you'd be lying, see? If he flips town you're clear. It only makes sense.
It does not though. Celever said that I can still be scum protecting him for towncred. This is going nowhere at all... DX
You were pointing out that noone weighed in on whether or not you should full claim, not that people were ignoring your lynchproof claim.
Yes. Will you now answer the question?
(And yes, I know Celever has answered. I want to hear your answer.)
Cel is only scum if Zone is.
Which is why I asked whether I should simply give you all my role to proof that I am town or not. Because I can block one lynch aimed at me.
 

Camoclone

TCG Articles Head
Member
On mobile so this is difficult.
D4: 6-2-1 --> lynch NP --> nightkill, Camo dies --> D5 4-2 --> mislynch (very possible if Camo is town) --> nightkill 2-2, game.
My Ability draws the NK. I’m not worried about a blocker.

More coming soon.
 

Mariano11887

Goalkeeper
Member
The way my role works is that I'm essentially a three-shot JOAT. I have three super powerful Abilities. When I use one of these Abilities I have a permanent vote placed on me. This persists even into LYLO and if I were to make it to when the extra votes would automatically lynch me then I would die. Here's two of the Abilities:

- Ability 1: Choose a player. That player will be completely deathproof for the next phase. A phase is one day/night cycle. (Protection begins tonight.) You can't use this ability on the same player on consecutive nights.
- Ability 2: You will put on a show for everypony, preventing the use of all other Active Abilities.
Last vote count shows 2 "Active Ability" votes placed on you. Are you confirming that you already used those 2 abilities you mentioned?

Drac's non-commital play is worrying at this point of the game...

Would GM Drac have been blocked by Camo's Ability 2? (And didn't NP also claim being blocked at some point?)
No, Drac was blocked by me. I used my ability to block him.

Speaking of which, what other JOAT abilities have you used so far @Mariano11887?
N1 -> Double vote weight on Celever
N2 -> Revealed Keeper's role PM
N3 -> Blocked Drac from using any Active Abilities

Not L-1. It is L-2. Had he been L-1, then I would have been the one to strike last. Unfortunately I was still on V/LA when bbninjas made it L-1.
?? Why would you have lynched someone so early in the day??

My main reservation over lynching Celever or Jabber today is this: they can be mafian only in very niche, complicated scenarios. Basically, the simplest scenario is generally the most likely -- and I do think that Camo is scummiest out of the three, but he can either clear himself as town or be shown a liar tonight. The question is: Should we risk having a potentially mafian Camo live another night?
^This. If we see Camo as the scummiest player, we should never let him live today. Camo may use a powerful scum ability tonight that would affect town a lot, and by the time we realise he was lying, it could be too late.

Here is my ability



Too bad this ability is wasted on me since I'm not the kind of guy that get NightKill. Since we can't afford to loose 2 townies in 1 nights, last night was the last time I'm gonna use this ability.
I don't see the purpose of this claim.. Why did you do that?

Oh and @Mariano11887 I believe it was D2 Keeper first claimed to be a bomb. Hopefully this helps your confusion.
Nope, I checked it. Keeper said he was a bomb in Day 1.
 

Zone Q11

『Plebeian』『He who Hails from NovelUpdates Forum』
Member
?? Why would you have lynched someone so early in the day??
I wanted to say that it is because of emotional and instinctive reasons, but you literally answered your own question with the following quote:
^This. If we see Camo as the scummiest player, we should never let him live today. Camo may use a powerful scum ability tonight that would affect town a lot, and by the time we realise he was lying, it could be too late.
 

Mariano11887

Goalkeeper
Member
Why block me?
Because you were the second scummiest player in the list I built at the end of previous Day. The first one was Keeper, but I knew that his ability wasn't something worth blocking, so I preferred going with you.

I wanted to say that it is because of emotional and instinctive reasons, but you literally answered your own question with the following quote:
The second quote doesn't relate with the first one. In the second I'm talking about not leaving Camo alive by the end of this day, while in the first one I was referring to you wanting to lynch Camo early in the day.
 

Jabberwock

#Jovimohnaeliackvid
Forum Mod
Articles Staff
Member
Only if he flips scum, because then you'd be lying, see? If he flips town you're clear. It only makes sense.
Cel already mentioned this but nobody seems to wanna listen to him: Cel flipping town doesn't clear Zone. That only works the other way around.
My main reservation over lynching Celever or Jabber today is this: they can be mafian only in very niche, complicated scenarios. Basically, the simplest scenario is generally the most likely -- and I do think that Camo is scummiest out of the three, but he can either clear himself as town or be shown a liar tonight. The question is: Should we risk having a potentially mafian Camo live another night?
I've been thinking about this too 'cos honestly it might just be in our best interests in general to lynch me today so y'all can move forward with the truth of what I've said. Cel brought up the "perspective debate" in the very next post, and I actually subscribe to the other school of thought –– I'm on board with sac'ing myself for the sake of information (mainly 'cos I view it as a personal win if my faction ends up winning, whether or not I'm actually alive at that point :p).

The other hand is what Mariano brought up in #1035 –– the possibility that the havoc Camo could wreak as scum tonight outweighs the fact that he'd be proven a liar on the morrow. I've been thinking this through and I can't actually imagine whatever it is being that bad, 'cos if it were, he'd've used it already.

So yeah. There's a distinct possibility that lynching me is the best option, if y'all aren't convinced that I'm town by my role and my play. I'd be down for that if that's the case.

I'm gonna ##VOTE: CELEVER for the moment though bc obv y'all should townread me enough to believe my results, so that's the optimal eventuality.
 

NinjaPenguin

Always standing out from the crowd.
Member
Cel already mentioned this but nobody seems to wanna listen to him: Cel flipping town doesn't clear Zone. That only works the other way around.

I've been thinking about this too 'cos honestly it might just be in our best interests in general to lynch me today so y'all can move forward with the truth of what I've said. Cel brought up the "perspective debate" in the very next post, and I actually subscribe to the other school of thought –– I'm on board with sac'ing myself for the sake of information (mainly 'cos I view it as a personal win if my faction ends up winning, whether or not I'm actually alive at that point :p).

The other hand is what Mariano brought up in #1035 –– the possibility that the havoc Camo could wreak as scum tonight outweighs the fact that he'd be proven a liar on the morrow. I've been thinking this through and I can't actually imagine whatever it is being that bad, 'cos if it were, he'd've used it already.

So yeah. There's a distinct possibility that lynching me is the best option, if y'all aren't convinced that I'm town by my role and my play. I'd be down for that if that's the case.

I'm gonna ##VOTE: CELEVER for the moment though bc obv y'all should townread me enough to believe my results, so that's the optimal eventuality.
I think just mechanically speaking, your death is the best today. If you're town and Camo sacrifices himself for a good cause tonight, the Cel Zone scumteam is simply outed and loses.
 
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