Finished Werewolf XXVI: Harmonic Divergence | Town Win!

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Luispipe8

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Welp, Jeremy is dead and was town. :v Well, good thing is that he was a non-bender, so that messes with the Equalists somehow, I guess. And speaking of that, I wonder how many are there of each faction, since every single player that has died, aside from Bigfoot and Drohn, were town. Dx

But anyways, I'll jump right on my case. I'm a little short of time, so I won't bother to go way back and look for quotes.


Let's go back to Night 3(?). The Equalists attempted to take away the Bending from Reinforce (as he stated here), but they failed. Also, the Red Lotus apparently forgot to submit a Night Kill. So, that little coincidence that nothing happened that night bugged me, and I realized: What if Reinforce has an non-removable Banding Ability (like Bigfoot's)? Well, if you think about it, there's little to no reason why Reinforce would mention he has one, except... if that Ability is the Lotus' Night Kill. Sure, that's a bit of a stretch, but he, coincidentally, mentioned "who would waste that ability on an inactive, like I am right now? (paraphrasing)". It turns out, the Red Lotus skipped that night's kill! Given there's nothing else so far, I'm heavily inclined to believe Reinforce is the leader of the Lotus with the Night Kill as a non-removable Bending Ability, resulting in the failure of attack from the Equalists.

##VOTE: Reinforce
 

PMJ

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But Reinforce didn't lose his bending. What you're saying makes no sense. He didn't lose his bending and just happened to not submit his kill, but still posted about not losing it the next day?
 

Luispipe8

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I meant he avoided the Equalist's attack because of his non-removable Bending Ability, which could be the Night Kill; not that the kill itself was blocked by that, because we'd have had on kill last night. Right now I'm assuming the fail was on Reinforce's side because he said the attack failed instead of it being blocked.
 

rev3rsor

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So we've lost one of the more active members, and his ability was pretty neat as well :/

And nope, I haven't received any activity messages (not last night nor any other night...).
 

rev3rsor

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I didn't see the previous posts when I posted, so that's a pretty interesting observation. I would like to hear what Reinforce has to say; but to agree with what was said, did he just happen to forget to submit a kill on the same night? Or is it possible that the Night Kill would be given to someone else if they lost it?
 

PMJ

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Semantics. The attack failing and being blocked means the same thing.
 

GM DracLord

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iMO, its very unlikely a scum would be able to lost their kill ability or cant use it simly because their other ability activated insteas.it may only probable if the kill was blocked by other people.i dont see scum kill ability would be tied to another ability
 

Celever

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What do you guys think to the hooker coming clean and telling us who they hooked the night there was no lynch? Said hooked player could well be the killer, and generally a villager for a mafia trade benefits the town more than if the hooker didn't come out, despite their likely dying.
 

Luispipe8

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I think you're not seeing what I mean, PMJ. :p

Reinforce got alerted the attack failed. As I see it, if something on the Equalist's side, or them being blocked, caused the action's failure, Reinforce would have never been alerted because the action never reached him in the first place. For Reinforce to receive the alert, nothing must have gone wrong with the Equalists.
 

Reinforce

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Very well, as Teal insists, I shall counter your argument, Luis.

Let's start.

You know what a big part of the problem is? This part from your post:

So, that little coincidence that nothing happened that night bugged me

Coincidence.

You believe there is a connection with there being no kill and the Equalists' failed attempt on me, and thus drew out a hypothetical scenario that would fit that, ending with accusing me of being Red Lotus. But you know what? You yourself already made statements that prove that is not the case. And I'll even throw in some facts from previous posts to add to that.

1)
The Equalists attempted to take away the Bending from Reinforce (as he stated here), but they failed. Also, the Red Lotus apparently forgot to submit a Night Kill.

From the start, you yourself already lay out that they are two different incidents. The connection between the two wasn't the revelation or the result of a deduction of facts or similarities or logical flow to arrive at a conclusion, it's the other way around: You laid out a scenario that would make them connected, created a person that would fit the culprit criteria, thrust me at the role, and then tried to justify it. But your justification is shaky, and I'll go into detail below why.

And... this is sort of meta so I'm not using it as a main foundation for arguing why the two are not connected, but it's a little intriguing and revealing for me so I'll share it: The first sentence of the quote is an event that involves actions/roles/game mechanics. The second one is a result of player/human error. Think about it.

2)
Also, the Red Lotus apparently forgot to submit a Night Kill.

This in particular, you are correct. IE has explicitly stated as such in the Day 3 update, specifically the part under the spoiler. If we are to take that as fact due to that, then how and why should events that happened in the Night (like me being targeted by Equalists maybe?) have any influence or connection to it? The core of the matter is that there was no Night kill simply because the Red Lotus forgot to submit. Whether the Red Lotus kill is a non-removable bending ability OR NOT will not affect that. Whether I am a Red Lotus with a non-removable bending ability to kill OR NOT will not affect that. Whether I was targeted by the Equalists that night and they failed OR NOT will not affect that. 3 cases out of 3. You think that's maybe enough to consider them PARALLEL incidents - no connection to each other at all? And if that's so, then we're back to what I emphasized up there: your base premise is wrong. Your accusation/conclusion is not only exaggerated but also unfounded - it's no more different than a random accusation hurled at anybody else. You could have accused e.g. PMJ of the same charge with a different event that happened that night, and it would be the same as what's happening to me now. The only reason you're directing it to me is due to the Equalists' failed attempt, which you insist has bearing on the kill that did not happen. Does it really?

3)
Sure, that's a bit of a stretch, but he, coincidentally, mentioned "who would waste that ability on an inactive, like I am right now? (paraphrasing)". It turns out, the Red Lotus skipped that night's kill!

AGAIN, I say, why would the Equalists failing their attempt on me lead to the skipped night kill? That's what "IT TURNS OUT" implies, isn't it? A resulting event that happened IN RELATION TO and BECAUSE OF the initial event? I might be sounding like a broken record at this point, but that is just not a naturally formed conclusion at all. Which leads us back to me saying that this supposed connection between the two events is a false supposition.


Any further questions and arguments, I'll answer them tomorrow, around the same time as this.
 

Reinforce

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I think you're not seeing what I mean, PMJ. :p

Reinforce got alerted the attack failed. As I see it, if something on the Equalist's side, or them being blocked, caused the action's failure, Reinforce would have never been alerted because the action never reached him in the first place. For Reinforce to receive the alert, nothing must have gone wrong with the Equalists.

A quick reply on this one before I have to leave.

This is a bit of semantics I think. And maybe a misunderstanding, misinterpretation and some too quick logical conclusion.

Okay, so... To be really specific, I got a message from IE that I got targeted by the Equalists. Not exactly that their attempt failed. ... Actually, that one is a conclusion. My logic for it is simple: I got targeted by the Equalists... but no modifications to my role occurred. That's why I concluded that they failed. I can't really think of any other conclusion to derive from that, tbh.
 

Luispipe8

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Reinforce, I'm not saying that those two actions are connected randomly. I'm basing that, given your inactivity around that time, you could have been the one missing the action. Sure, that brings up half the players, but also add in the fact that the Equalists tried to target you target you and failed. That connected your inactivity, the night kill and the Equalists' attack. Although...

I got a message from IE that I got targeted by the Equalists. Not exactly that their attempt failed.

There was someone else that mentioned being targeted by the Equalists. To whoever it was (if still alive), did it specifically stated your Bending was removed?
 

GM DracLord

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Reinforce, I'm not saying that those two actions are connected randomly. I'm basing that, given your inactivity around that time, you could have been the one missing the action. Sure, that brings up half the players, but also add in the fact that the Equalists tried to target you target you and failed. That connected your inactivity, the night kill and the Equalists' attack. Although...



There was someone else that mentioned being targeted by the Equalists. To whoever it was (if still alive), did it specifically stated your Bending was removed?
I dont remember anyone admitting being targetted by equalist.. Correct me if im wrong
 

Reinforce

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Reinforce, I'm not saying that those two actions are connected randomly. I'm basing that, given your inactivity around that time, you could have been the one missing the action. Sure, that brings up half the players, but also add in the fact that the Equalists tried to target you target you and failed. That connected your inactivity, the night kill and the Equalists' attack. Although...

Two points to contest here on why you're singling me out :

1) You single me out among the inactives because of the failed Equalist attempt on me, under the belief that the Red Lotus night kill/ability has some special properties and which would, in turn, explain the failure. But there is something you seem to have forgotten: That bolded phrase is not a fact. It is only an assumption. One that you yourself made, I might add. So if the Equalist failed supposing I had a non-removable role, why does that non-removable role have to be that very specific role that you theorized? Why couldn't it be a harmless role (like I'm insisting)? Wouldn't the outcome be the same as we have now- the Equalists still fail, but that doesn't make me a Red Lotus by default. I don't get why you're convinced that -the only- role/ability that would fit that criteria of being non-removable as to cause the Equalists to fail is a Red Lotus kill.

And so we're back to the first argument: If you can accept this possibility, then the Red Lotus kill that did not happen has no connection to me. I am merely one of the inactives, and there is no proof to pinpoint me as that specific Red Lotus that forgot to submit a kill. If you can't accept this possibility, then do explain why... why would it be that the only possibility that can happen or could have happened is your scenario and no other...?

2) What's got you convinced that the cause of the Equalists' failure lies with me? Your theory that if they were blocked, I wouldn't have gotten a message from IE is logical - which is what led you to believe the failure came from my side. But I wonder, why are you only looking at the two sides of the coin when the edge is a possible angle, as I would metaphorically put it? In short, a third-party interference... Unless you have an explanation as to why this isn't possible?
 

Luispipe8

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2 Things:
-I never said it is the ONLY alternative, but a very likely one. If you look at my posts, I repeatedly use the word "could". And with this great amount of leads, I'd rather go for someone with some fundament instead of a random lynch... Again.
-I AM taking into consideration someone blocked/redirected the Equalists, but you would have still never received a PM.
 

PMJ

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That just means that Reinforce was the reason the ability was blocked, not because someone blocked whoever hit him.
 

rev3rsor

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Just to add my two cents, I'm leaning towards believing Reinforce, as for me there are too many unsure factors involved. (even if this does mean we have no real leads; but then again werewolf is pretty much just about making/finding leads and having them confirmed/debunked)

I still wouldn't know why the Equalists failed, and that it was because of himself and not some other role, unless it's something like an ability that he hasn't mentioned. I would assume that if an action was blocked, the target wouldn't be alerted that someone tried to target them?
 

Keeper of Night

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Oh, not too many days left, and I have to post three times.
But I'm also finishing up school this week so won't that be fun.

Not inclined to believe Luis. Though it is convenient that RF became active after he was PM'd by IE, after the kill was never sent in, so...
And he reacted pretty strongly. But there's nothing saying we should be trusting Luis either.
 

Luispipe8

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Can yo then suggest any other leads? I posted all I could gather so far, I honestly see nothing else going on. :v
 
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