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Standard Skinny Greninja

2

21times

Aspiring Trainer
Member
Hey Beachbums,

I'm not sure that this is the best Greninja list, but I've gone 39-11 in my last 50 games with it on PTCGO:

upload_2017-1-14_0-38-56.png

##Pokémon - 17
* 4 Talonflame STS 96
* 3 Greninja BREAK BKP 41
* 1 Froakie PR-XY XY138
* 1 Froakie BKP 38
* 4 Frogadier BKP 39
* 4 Greninja BKP 40
##Trainer Cards - 31
* 3 Professor Sycamore STS 114
* 4 Bursting Balloon BKP 97
* 2 Rough Seas PRC 137
* 1 Eco Arm AOR 71
* 1 Energy Retrieval EVO 77
* 1 Super Rod BKT 149
* 1 Professor Sycamore BKP 107
* 2 Random Receiver FAC 109
* 1 Teammates PRC 141
* 4 VS Seeker ROS 110
* 1 Lysandre FLF 104
* 4 Professor Birch's Observations PRC 134
* 2 Enhanced Hammer PHF 94
* 4 Dive Ball PRC 125
##Energy - 12
* 8 Water Energy Energy 3
* 4 Splash Energy BKP 113

So I'm calling it Skinny Greninja because I only run 2 Froakie. And the answer to your question - because I'm sure you're instant reaction is how many times did I prize both Froakies - is twice. Two times in 50 matches I prized both Froakies and took an autoloss. A 4% rate seems a little low to me - I know that there's about a 20 percent chance of me prizing 1 Froakie. I'm not good enough at probability to figure out exactly what the percentage is to prize 2 specific cards out of 60 in 6 attempts without replacement - if someone who reads this does know how to calculate that I'd be appreciative of the formula, but I'm betting it should be a little bit more than 4%.

In 4 of the other 9 losses I started Froakie. I started Froakie 5 times in the 39 wins - that seems extremely low to me - it seems like I should have started Froakie more than 9 times in 50 matches. I know that the percentage of starting Froakie is a little lower than 33% - sometimes you'll get both TF and Froakie in your opening hand - but I don't think it should be 18%. It seems like I should have started Froakie a little more than what I did over this span, and that probably is contributing to the 78% winning percentage.

Also a major factor: I only saw Garbodor 3 times during this range. I have no idea what has happened to Garbodor - I've only seen him 10 times in 147 matches this month. This is a huge dropoff from seeing him in almost 1 out of every 5 matches, the rate at which I've come across him the last 2 months.

So what this deck does allow for is ensuring as much as possible that I'll start Talonflame. There's no question that the deck is better when it starts TF, and that I free up one more slot for another card is icing on the cake (I've got about a dozen cards that are my 61st card).

So if you've wondered about gambling and going with 2 Froakie, here are my results. I'd say it's definitely worth taking the chance.
 

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This list is bad... 3 Froakie is a lot better, and although you're less likely to start Talonflame, If you have no other way to get it out(or you prize both like you said), you can at least be more likely to draw maybe one. It's also not horrible to not start Talonflame. Birch is a terrible card now that we have N back, which 3 is a staple in Greninja, alongside a single Ace Trainer, since you're more than likely going to lose a prize while setting up. 4 Sycamore is also a staple, because if you dead draw with Greninja, you lose, no questions. Max Potion is a god-tier card in this deck, because if they don't OHKO you, they struggle to ever take prizes. And if you're playing against anything with Garbodor, which is just about every other good deck in the meta, you never out-damage them. But that being, along with Max Potion, Enhanced Hammer is also a god-tier card for the deck, because it takes away and leverage Garb decks have against you that isn't ability lock, so at least you have those. And a little note about the 2 Froakie: you said it was well worth the chance at prizing both, but the reality is, it's not. Any good player should know that if you the full capability to prevent something, you will. Speaking of good players, PTCGO is not a reliable source for playtesting or giving other players results, because all competitive players know that PTCGO is 95% bad players. Hardly any good players use PTCGO compared to the bad players that use it. Random Receiver is a bad card too, probably the worst one in the list, since you should always have some way to get cards in here. Eco Arm too, is bad since 4 Bursting Balloons is plenty to last you all game. You only use them when you need to, not when you want to just take a KO as fast as possible. I'd also like to add that it's not necessary, because good players can easily get around B Balloon, so some players dropped them to lower numbers, or don't play them at all, but that part is optional. And the energy lineup isn't ideal either, since 12 is a bit much the this deck. Fisherman(which is a good card you should play) gets basic energies back and it's VS Seeker-able, and since most matchups use Garbodor, and you return Water Energy to your hand majority of the time, you can deduce that you don't need 8. You Should bring your energy total down to 10, so you don't dead draw into them. That's all I have to say for now, but good luck on the deck! With SM base set, I wonder how the deck will change, by cards and by playablity.
 
Hey gumball thanks for your suggestions. You make good points overall. My initial response to all of them is to simply look at the screen shot at the top of the post. I have played almost 2000 games on ptcgo since the new rotation. I don't get many easy matches. I feel that the level of competition that I face on PTCGO is very good. As I mentioned in the posting, I do feel that I've gotten a little lucky in only have both froakies prized twice, and I have undoubtedly benefited from the absence of Garbodor this month. And if you don't want to run 2 Froakies I'm not going to really argue that. I'm not necessarily a gambler by nature and it's kind of exciting a little bit to have a forum in which I can take some chances.

So as to N instead of Birch, you can check out the analysis I posted on this. If you really want to run N: peace. There are plenty of reasons to run it. All I'm saying is to maybe question the majority opinion. I have a solid study that shows that N significantly helps your opponent more than it hurts him. Maybe I'm wrong, maybe I'm right, I just want to say that I have some numbers and nobody else has any statistics on anything in this game. There is too much I think and I feel, not enough objective analysis.

There's no question that the deck is better when it starts TF. I win barely 50% when I start Froakie, almost 80% with TF.

I love Eco Arm, I play it most every game even if only to get back 1 balloon. Balloons are an integral part of my strategy. I almost always grab a balloon when I aero blitz.

I love 4 splash energy too. It's another card I grab if I can with Aero blitz.

So the random receivers, yes, you want to drop them, again that's fine. But 8 of my 9 supporters are draw cards, and that just gives me a little better chance of getting draw support. Also, if I'm lucky enough to have a receiver in hand when I have a sycamore, it gives me a chance at getting a birch so I don't have to potentially discard valuable resources.

Overall, I get your criticisms. I'm not going to argue much about them. All I'm saying is maybe question the status quo, especially when that status quo is built on subjective ideas and feelings.
 
Sorry, got to add another thing: your comment about 95% of PTCGO players being bad really needs to be walked back. I'm watching a stream right now of Andrew Mahone and Jimmy Pendarvis... on PTCGO.


I'm pretty sure you wouldn't call these guys bad players.

And Jimmy's N at 29:15 is a great example of how Birch might just be better than N. Turned a probable victory into a quick defeat. Again, if you really want to play N, there are plenty of reasons to play it. Just realize that for every time you use it as a disruptive weapon against your opponent, there are two times that it significantly helps them.

And it's especially helpful early game - it's only late game when N is at it's best, and I'll take an early game advantage over a late game advantage every time since most games don't make it past 3 or 4 prize cards taken.
 
Greninja is a late game deck and if you aren't running 4 N you're doing it wrong.
 
So again I'm going to point to my objective analysis and the image at the top of the posting. Question the status quo.

You think I'm wrong? Try it yourself - objectively track the results - and let's see what happens.
 
I think that the big point with Greninja is. There's no solid decklist. Greninja's skeleton list is pretty small and you can fill it with whatever techs you own, you want, or you want to use to counter. And I think, as a Greninja player and fan, there isn't really a wrong way to play this deck. After all. It's whether or not you get the W, right?
 
Yep completely agree, it's all about the W, and there are definitely more ways than one to get there with the blue frog.
 
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