Discussion PTCG Set Ranking: Forbidden Light

[Otaku]

My point with all this is: it is perfectly possible to make a "set top list" before the set becomes legal, and what initially "triggered" me was that you started off by explaining why it was wrong to make an early top list then proceeded to post one yourself (and a top 25 at that, which is a bit too generous for any PTCG set) with some really questionable choices on it.

Did you read any of the posts between me and @FrostBiter12?

I said it was too early to try to rank how good Forbidden Light was as a set overall. As in, "Forbidden Light is the X best set of the Sun & Moon series." Which is how I read the title. Is that an utter failure of reading comprehension? I'll probably have an honest, accurate answer in a few days because I didn't even think of reading it any other way until I saw your most recent comment. It'll take a bit for me to finish processing. In my defense, even after almost 20 years, most people just call their Top 10 lists... Top 10 lists. XD

That's why I said I thought his thread title was misleading; because I (incorrectly) took it as "Set Ranking article" and not "Top 10 Cards of Forbidden Light". I then apologized for leading with it in my initial post because it was a minor thing, only worth mentioning because he stated he wants feedback for writing good articles.

I mean, maybe the guy thinks I'm the biggest jerk in the world, but then FrostBiter12 is being really patient and polite about it. XD

Edit: Regrettably, I felt the need to revise what I said. I skipped some "thoughts" as I moved from sentence to sentence, and even had some mundane typos to further muddy my message. In one or two places, I adjusted the tone. My apologies; even in a normal discussion, I try not to be so sloppy. In one that has become contentious, it is extra bad as it may appear I am trying to deceive by changing statements after the fact. >_< If you have your Notifications set up in a certain manner, the original post will have been preserved via the email notification sent to your Inbox.

 

[Otaku]

With the latest tournament results, it is fair to say I was utterly wrong about Mysterious Treasure; not only are Malamar/Ultra Necrozma-GX decks running it heavily (usually maxed out)...

...they are still running four Ultra Ball as well. Such a simple oversight, that the deck would heavily use both. Serves me right, but I hope my bad advice didn't adversely affect anyone. >.>

 

[Matux]

Personnally my top 15 is :

1) Malamar
2) Beast Ring
3) Beast energy Prism Star
4) Diancy Prism Star
5) Ultra Necrozma GX
6) Mysterious Threasure
7) Buzzwole
8) Diantha
9) Zygarde GX
10) Ultra Space
11) Naganadel GX
12) Greninja GX
13) Crasher Wake
14) Ultra Recon Squad
15) Sylveon

I think Zygarde GX is overhyped cause using Bonnie each turn is not consistent and needs a lot to have set up before (octillery draw engine, energies, choice band) and you can't guzma that is already a problem in Garchomp/Lucario (cause you need to cynthia).

I'm talking only of standard cause I think for example Lysandre Prism Star is insane in expanded versus Night March and Zoroark GX (bye eggs/Hex Maniac)
Same for Alolan Exeggutor that seems to be a really great 1 prize attacker for only one energy and that have an obvious synergy with battle compressor that is also great to have eggs in the discard pile.

 

[OppositeAttract]

With the latest tournament results, it is fair to say I was utterly wrong about Mysterious Treasure; not only are Malamar/Ultra Necrozma-GX decks running it heavily (usually maxed out)...

...they are still running four Ultra Ball as well. Such a simple oversight, that the deck would heavily use both. Serves me right, but I hope my bad advice didn't adversely affect anyone. >.>

Since before the set dropped I've argued Mysterious Treasure should be a staple considering it only costs one card to get a Lele which is really good and should make it something mostly everyone should run for consistency purposes along with Ultra Balls. Imo. Mysterious treasure is not necessarily a broken card but still my favorite card from the set.

 

[Duo]

Since before the set dropped I've argued Mysterious Treasure should be a staple considering it only costs one card to get a Lele which is really good and should make it something mostly everyone should run for consistency purposes along with Ultra Balls. Imo. Mysterious treasure is not necessarily a broken card but still my favorite card from the set.

I don't know about calling it a staple in non-Dragon/Psychic decks. It seems like a huge stretch to add copies of the card JUST to search out Tapu Lele GX, even more so after rotation hits and everyone replaces Brigette with Pokemon Fan Club that can search out Tapu Lele GX to hand for your next turn. It's not as fast, and it still uses your supporter for turn, but I really don't see myself dedicating card slots just for making Lele slightly more consistent.

It boils down to diminishing returns with probability for me. Most people already play 3 Lele and 4 Ultra Ball, and every Mysterious Treasure you add has less and less weight. What I mean by this is the following:

If you have 1 copy of a card and increase the count to 2, you are now twice as likely to see that card.
2 -> 3 copies, you are now 50% more likely to see that card
3 -> 4 copies, you are now 33% more likely to see that card

----

For every Mysterious Treasure you add,
7 -> 8 copies, you are now 14% more likely to see Tapu Lele GX
8 -> 9 copies, you are now 12.5% more likely to see Tapu Lele GX
9 -> 10 copies, you are now 11% more likely to see Tapu Lele GX
10 - > 11 copies, you are now 10% more likely to see Tapu Lele GX

When your opening hand size is 7 cards, the base probability of seeing Tapu Lele GX when running 3 count with 4 Ultra Ball of 11.67% is already quite high. Devoting deck space to SPECIFICALLY just finding Lele to me sounds like a huge stretch.

Considering that we run on a limited deck size, every card dedicated to making specifically Tapu Lele GX more consistent makes everything else less consistent by a wider margin. Let's say you used to run 2 choice band but drop to 1 in order to make room for a Mysterious Treasure. You halve your odds of seeing Choice Band in order to increase the odds of Tapu Lele GX by 14%.

I just can't see this as a justifiable decision in non-Dragon/Psychic decks due to mathematics, and obviously the weight of each card in your deck is not the same and changes throughout a game, but when Mysterious Treasure will only net you a bricked hand after your Leles are in play (in a non-Dragon/Psychic deck), to me it seems like the antithesis of consistency. Considering how tight deck space is in just about every deck, forcing Mysterious Treasure as a staple simply seems like overhyping a new card to me.

 

[K-Genesis]

Considering only Standard format, this would be my top 9 so far:

1 - Beast Ring: probably the most powerful mid-game tool around, makes any UB deck exponentially better and the meta revolves around them right now.

2 - Malamar: cornerstone of every (P) deck worth its salt for the mid-term, single-handedly makes UNecrozma top-tier.

3 - Diancie Prism Star: easily searchable, with a cost-effective supporting effect that maintains (F) as aggressive as usual. Staple of its typing.

4 - Beast Energy Prism Star: Choice Band plus Rainbow Energy in a single card, supporting the current top archetype. Also a hard staple of its theme.

5 - Mysterious Treasure: cost-effective search engine for two typings that sorely needed support, will see play for as long as those typings remain relevant.

6 - Ultra Necrozma GX: best attacker of the set, but only made viable by entry #2 (the alternative would be a clunky Metagross GX engine). Bound to be relevant for some time.

7 - Naganadel GX: extremely versatile within its archetype, with a great amount of support to work fluidly wherever it fits.

8 - Buzzwole: extremely efficient early-to-mid transition attacker, can swing matches around and keep a stable board for entry #1 shenanigans.

9 - Ultra Space: Brooklet Hill for UBs, but made better by putting them in your hand. While only Kartana GX and Nihilego GX benefit from this perk as of now, it's good that it's there.

The reason for this being a top 9 is because I can't decide which card would rank #10 from a number of honorable mentions. Those would be: Greninja GX, Zygarde GX, Crasher Wake, Diantha, (F)Garchomp line and Alolan Marowak. Greninja GX would probably take the spot right now due to presenting results already.

 

[OppositeAttract]

I'm going to respectively disagree with you especially when you chose to use language like "stretch", "overhyping" or "forcing" when arguing treasure's use which is strong in tone and feels somewhat contrived. My initial argument was it should be used just for Lele ( which I still believe it should based on the inherent value of Lele AND the fact that you only have to discard one card) which makes it objectively better for that sole purpose, albeit not in an absolute sense. In reality most decks right now are playing more than Lele in terms of psychic pokemon like Mew/MewEx, Latios increasing its value considerably. Therefore I believe in the current meta Mysterious Treasure should be included in most decks and not just because turn one Lele. I also am not going to speculate on how good the card will be post rotation, but the fact that it is one way to help thin your deck in a sycamore free world seems good in theory.

On your second point, I don't think many people will replace Brigette with Fan Club. The game has already moved away from turn one brigette in many of the top decks in favor of faster cards. Post rotation I think this may continue as people will choose to use Lillie/Steven's Decision or whatever else comes out next as Fan Club is not very good and Dunsparce should be better. Again, I understand you have a differing opinion to my own and I can respect that, but right now I feel Mysterious treasure could be a 1/2 of in many decks.

 

[Duo]

I'm going to respectively disagree with you especially when you chose to use language like "stretch", "overhyping" or "forcing" when arguing treasure's use which is strong in tone and feels somewhat contrived. My initial argument was it should be used just for Lele ( which I still believe it should based on the inherent value of Lele AND the fact that you only have to discard one card) which makes it objectively better for that sole purpose, albeit not in an absolute sense. In reality most decks right now are playing more than Lele in terms of psychic pokemon like Mew/MewEx, Latios increasing its value considerably. Therefore I believe in the current meta Mysterious Treasure should be included in most decks and not just because turn one Lele. I also am not going to speculate on how good the card will be post rotation, but the fact that it is one way to help thin your deck in a sycamore free world seems good in theory.

On your second point, I don't think many people will replace Brigette with Fan Club. The game has already moved away from turn one brigette in many of the top decks in favor of faster cards. Post rotation I think this may continue as people will choose to use Lillie/Steven's Decision or whatever else comes out next as Fan Club is not very good and Dunsparce should be better. Again, I understand you have a differing opinion to my own and I can respect that, but right now I feel Mysterious treasure could be a 1/2 of in many decks.

A fair point. I failed to mention a few things. The first being I haven't played the Pokemon TCG in the last half year or so and was not aware of increased Psychic Pokemon useage like Mew, and the second being that right now I am heavily focused on post-rotation where cards like Mew are not going to be playable anymore (Latios is still in, of course). It probably would've helped for me to have given that context first. I had just come out of thinking about a post rotation deck, so my mind was already there.

As far as Brigette & Fan Club are concerned, I believe some decks will still be forced to utilize Fan Club whether we like it or not in post rotation. Either that, or everyone will just be playing lots of Alolan Vulpix.